I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3885 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:37 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
So it is very important to keep going this farming system right until TSHTF and TEOTWAWKI materialise, as then it will get new lease of life not threatened anymore by globalization, biurocracy, food hygiene expanded to absurdity, animal welfare and other BS.
IMO it is definitely not more than 10 - 15 years from now on.
Perhaps, that is why we had recently EU wide showcase about voting system with Poland stirring a crap.
It appears, that after 2017, when current voting system will no longer work, other arrangements will not be important or relevant because EU will turn to be an obsolete institution with no real influence on affairs of member states and with no coherrent international policy, milked meantime by anyone who can, naturally at expense of German or Dutch taxpayers...
Ah, ok you're polish then. My apologies; until this thread I had more or less always assumed that you were American.
oh When it comes to the German and Dutch taxpayers; I think that both these countries at the heart of Europe also have the most to gain from it. Maybe not in it's direct financial dealings with the EU but in terms of trade:
Germany is the biggest exporter in the world and most of those exports go to the other EU member states. Holland on the other hand has an even higher export rate of GDP; more than half of Dutch GDP comes from export, with imports to match. Any German or Dutch economist will tell you that the effect of the EU on the economy on net is a big plus; and you even get to look good because you're helping fellow European nations improving their infrastructure and hence economy so that they will import even more of your junk in the future. (that's also the basic premise that was behind the Marshall plan, which even consisted mostly of loans; it still worked though; we used all those loans to buy all sorts of american stuff like machines for factories and agriculture; we still do)
Maybe you could even say btw, that at the core of the EU is German feelings of guilt for WWII.
Either way, I don't see the EU falling apart because the basic economic premise will remain the same, even in a declining economy. Maybe one country will go on it's own and crash even harder than the others, convincing the others to stay in.
In the end though, I guess it's all about how big a doomer you are: I see a depression with a decade or two of economic decline until we find a new (low wealth) solar powered equilibrium. But I guess if you're the kind of doomer that sees every nation on earth fall apart in the end, I guess it's only natural to assume that the EU falls apart before the individual states do. I don't think that's likely though.(and ofcourse I don't hope so)
PS I guess if you live in Poland where obviously things aren't going forward as they should be, you'd be more cynical already; which is what I sense. Aren't Europeans on this board on average a little less doomerish than Americans though? Or am I mistaken? Also, wasn't Poland said to be doing really good about 5 years ago? _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3885 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:06 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Twilight wrote:
The EU doesn't have a future in its present form, that is, as an economic and legal entity aspiring to homogeneity.
In times of economic distress, your world shrinks, you turn your attention inwards. We are seeing growing signs of energy nationalism, and within a few years, important producers such as Russia will probably follow Venezuela's lead and openly state it as policy. We see the same "I'm looking out for myself, screw everyone else!" attitude from individual members of this forum. And it makes sense. Which is why I expect consumer countries (ie OECD, EU, whatever other bloc) to follow suit, albeit late in the game.
The EU as it exists today, is of course not compatible with the depression/nationalist paradigm. It seeks to regulate law and policy, with a special focus on economic areas, for the greater good of the European community. It is a fair weather mechanism. It has not been designed for any evironment but economic prosperity. It has never in its present form been tested by a world economic downturn, and has never had to learn lessons and make adaptations.
Thus, when the economic policy of the European community turns to local firefighting, the EU will become a barrier to progress. Will it step aside and allow its principles in energy, transport, agricultural and monetary policy to be over-ruled each in a different way by all of its member countries? Will it yield in its position on power infrastructure ownership unbundling once blackout-struck countries start deciding it is not the time for even greater deregulation and a command economy approach is called for? And the same in so many other areas? Continuing on the path to common labour laws in a time of national emergencies?
No, the EU will be obsolete, the only way it will survive is if the name is stamped on something quite different.
All good points. The EU will have to reform alot if it's to survive; still, taking into account all that you said, I think it will. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
oh When it comes to the German and Dutch taxpayers; I think that both these countries at the heart of Europe also have the most to gain from it. Maybe not in it's direct financial dealings with the EU but in terms of trade:
OK, then it would be optimal for Germans and Dutch to run EU as free trade agreement only.
Quote:
Any German or Dutch economist will tell you that the effect of the EU on the economy on net is a big plus...
Those are locked up in eternal growth paradigm, which is going to fail soon. No point to worry about them too much.
Quote:
Maybe you could even say btw, that at the core of the EU is German feelings of guilt for WWII.
The real German feeling about WW II is soreness about a failure.
Any additional feelings are politically correct overheads.
Quote:
Either way, I don't see the EU falling apart because the basic economic premise will remain the same, even in a declining economy. Maybe one country will go on it's own and crash even harder than the others, convincing the others to stay in.
Current economic theory assuming perpetual growth will no longer be applicable in collapse environment.
Quote:
In the end though, I guess it's all about how big a doomer you are: I see a depression with a decade or two of economic decline until we find a new (low wealth) solar powered equilibrium. But I guess if you're the kind of doomer that sees every nation on earth fall apart in the end, I guess it's only natural to assume that the EU falls apart before the individual states do. I don't think that's likely though.(and ofcourse I don't hope so)
I dont forsee formal collapse of EU in midterm future, saving atomic war or something alike.
However I forsee EU to become completely obsolete organization within 1-2 decades.
Roman empire never collapsed in formal sense...
Quote:
PS I guess if you live in Poland where obviously things aren't going forward as they should be, you'd be more cynical already; which is what I sense. Aren't Europeans on this board on average a little less doomerish than Americans though? Or am I mistaken? Also, wasn't Poland said to be doing really good about 5 years ago?
For me personally things are going very well in Poland as I belong to the top 1% of the wealthiest there...
My English mother, who also mooved to live in Poland, when me and my wife did it few years ago concluded that our money are making us somehow wealthier here than we were in the UK, even if we had well paid pharma job there.
I think European nations are facing a bit better future than US, but I dont believe, that integrity of EU will be preserved.
Again, it is our failing economic theory suggesting that Poland is doing better and better, but on the other hand peoples are getting more and more indebted, working longer and harder and prostitutes are getting cheaper as time pass.
I would risk a statement sugesting that trumpeted increase of GDP is irrelevant and used as an instrument of deluding all the sheeple.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6289 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
I actually think it would be very, very hard to find anyone in Europe that would think a war within Europe would pay off or is even possible
In the 1990s wars occurred in Serbia, Kosovo, Croatia, etc. These wars were in Europe. _________________ "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3885 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:36 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Plantagenet wrote:
Bas wrote:
I actually think it would be very, very hard to find anyone in Europe that would think a war within Europe would pay off or is even possible
In the 1990s wars occurred in Serbia, Kosovo, Croatia, etc. These wars were in Europe.
Very true. In the past I used the example of Yugoslavia as an example of how countries should NOT unify. I guess many people did see it as a possibility that war would break out there at the time, and I guess if there was a war to break out again in Europe it would start in that corner again eventhough things seem to have gone very quiet there, thankfully; a big economic crisis might put fuel on the smoldering recent past and put it into flames again though. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3885 Location: over here
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
I dont forsee formal collapse of EU in midterm future, saving atomic war or something alike.
However I forsee EU to become completely obsolete organization within 1-2 decades.
Roman empire never collapsed in formal sense...
I for one really don't see it go obsolete, at least not for the two main reasons it was once founded: to prevent war and later to promote economic stability and growth. The only thing that could make it obsolete IMO is if it EU would dissolve in even bigger (world) Union but I don't see that happening until the whole world has succesfully changed to a non-hydro-carbon economy and that's to far off to even begin to consider that.
I do think it's probable that many countries in a severe economic crisis will demand back certain rights, maybe close their borders for immigration/refugees and other things that don't really promote economic stability or Peace; the peoples of the different countries will probably demand it. Abandonment of the Euro seems unlikely to me (and stupid) but ofcourse you can't rule anything out; Europe is heading for harsh weather, just like the rest of the world.
In the end I still see Europe pull through; I don't think Europe and the Europeans really have that much of choice in that. It's either total doom or an impoverished Europe will pull through to the new solar paradigm economy by midcentury.(not that that will be such a paradise)
Either way, it is harder to predict the future now moreso than ever, there are so many things going on right now: Global warming and all the troubles that that will bring, Ecological overshoot, a shift in the balance of world power to Asia, the running out of hydrocarbons and all it's implications, and ofcourse the much acursed technological development. Any or all of these factors can have a bigger or smaller effect than we right now expect them to have (as if there are persons on this board that have the same expectations on all of these factors)and so in the end we'll all be wrong about how the world will look like by 2050. What I do believe in Europe though, is that Europeans are willing to stick to together even through prolonged hard times. (of maybe I'm naive...or at least not so damn cynical....or both ; ) _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 09, 2006 Posts: 540 Location: Al-Mariyya, Al-Andalus
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:15 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Plantagenet wrote:
"In the 1990s wars occurred in Serbia, Kosovo, Croatia, etc. These wars were in Europe."
These countries were not a part of the European Union, which I believe is what we're discussing here, at the time of these conflicts.
I'm not saying they wouldn't have ocurred had they already been members, but it would have been highly unlikely. None of the countries currently enjoying early membership or those undergoing the initial reforms necessary for qualifying suffered anything like the depth of socio-religious differences encountered in Serbia or Croatia prior to making applications.
Acceptance into the European Union requires many social and economic commitments which have to be seen to be working before final full-fledged membership can happen. Among these, are abolishing the death penalty, and reinforcement of greater worker's rights, including the right to join unions etc., two examples of requirements that many Sates of the United States of America would fail to comply with. Turkey, for example, being closely monitored, has had enormous difficulty imposing some of these reforms outside the 'moderate- progressive' major cities, which are serving as an excuse not to admit them. Romania got in with far less stringent checks, but then they're not Moslem.
The ordinary European is far less doomerish than his/her American counterpart because of deeper cultural and higher educational standards. Across Europe, there is a far greater acceptance of socialist political ideals and less pathological fear of government interference as understood by Americans. Europeans are on the whole both far more cynical of their leaders and also less easily manipulated by those in power- witness the unprecedented erosion of freedoms and protections for the masses under G.W.Bush, all achieved under the banner of democracy...
Joined: May 31, 2004 Posts: 920 Location: Brno, Czech rep., EU
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
Also, wasn't Poland said to be doing really good about 5 years ago?
Well, good is relative. Even right now, Polish economy is growing at some 6% per year, far higher rate than EU15 countries.
So they are doing "good" in this respect, but at the same time, unemployment is at 12-14% or so, thats really massive..
I remember politicians back in 1990 promising that now, without communists, we (Czechoslovakia) will catch upon Germany economically in 10 years.. That was before the first economic decline kicked in and later the second one Well it's been 17 years and economy is still only at some 74% of German per capita GDP (or 53% of US or Irish - worse than in 1990 I believe). I guess that many people were expecting miracles that simply failed to materialize.
I also think that high unemployment and "bad mood" more than the state of economy is making Poles more unhappy than the rest of eastern europeans, I remember seeing some charts showing that Polish GDP has been growing at faster rate than Czech since the fall of communism.
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Licho wrote:
I also think that high unemployment and "bad mood" more than the state of economy is making Poles more unhappy than the rest of eastern europeans, I remember seeing some charts showing that Polish GDP has been growing at faster rate than Czech since the fall of communism.
Again you are constantly referring to GDP growth, which becoming to be a meaningless factor used for deluding all the sheeple around.
Lets analyse following example:
A. You had repaired your fence and your neighbour repaired his.
B. You had repaired your neighbour fence and he paid you $50 and later your neighbour had repaired your fence and you paid him $50 for that.
There is identical outcome in A and B albeit only in B you have $100 GDP growth.
Shortly, GDP per capita is being reported to grow (due to creative accounting, underreporting inflation etc) and life standards of majority of population are falling.
This is universal truth applying to first world in general (EU, US etc) and not specific to Poland, Czech Republic or Germany.
Naturally, there will be about 10-20% of winners in each country, who will benefit from economic growth, but there is also 80% of loosers.
Due to my bussiness activities I am dealing with plenty of customers.
I observe, that each year they can pay more for my services, but yet they appear to be more indebted, insecure, distressed and with less of spare money as time pass.
Yet they are not complaining much about price increases each year, because we have economic growth and prices have to grow. Thats life.
Sheeple...they dont even suspect what is in store for them...
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:37 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
virgincrude wrote:
The ordinary European is far less doomerish than his/her American counterpart because of deeper cultural and higher educational standards.
I agree with that.
Quote:
Across Europe, there is a far greater acceptance of socialist political ideals...
So the crash of welfare systems will hurt more in Europe...
Quote:
...and less pathological fear of government interference as understood by Americans.
So there may be less of rampant violence, ones inevitable arrived.
Quote:
Europeans are on the whole both far more cynical of their leaders and also less easily manipulated by those in power- witness the unprecedented erosion of freedoms and protections for the masses under G.W.Bush, all achieved under the banner of democracy...
Than think a bit about new European police state - Britain.
Loss of freedoms in first world is an universal phenomenon.
Continental Europe is next in line.
Eastern Europe and Poland in particular may be a better place to live in this respect.
Governments there are too unstable, disorganised and divided as well as society is too unruly, to erode freedoms, which peoples are considering to be "natural rights".
This "arkwardness" of Poles prevented nationalisation of land even under communistic rule and gross of farming land remained in private hands.
Effective destruction of welfare system is also convincing majority of population not to rely on government for anything, because ruling elites are either corrupt fraudsters (left wing) or ideological fanatics (right wing).
There is little or no hope, that government has any ability to help and if it does not harm, it is already doing very well, so few peoples are bothering to vote.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3885 Location: over here
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 7:18 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited; I might not know that much about the Polish economy but isn't there a huge difference in economic welfare between the major population centres and the rural areas? The rural areas having hardly profited from the economic growth while things in the major cities have improved alot? Where do you live? And yeah, a 12-14% unemployment rate will be hard on any society; I'm not even sure what kind of sociological effects that has but I guess, listening to the Poles on this thread they aren't nice.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
So the crash of welfare systems will hurt more in Europe...
While that is true, it also means there does exist a political willingness to take care of the hungry and desperate on the level of society; a great binding factor IMO
Quote:
Europeans are on the whole both far more cynical of their leaders and also less easily manipulated by those in power- witness the unprecedented erosion of freedoms and protections for the masses under G.W.Bush, all achieved under the banner of democracy...
Than think a bit about new European police state - Britain.
Loss of freedoms in first world is an universal phenomenon.
Continental Europe is next in line.
Eastern Europe and Poland in particular may be a better place to live in this respect.
Governments there are too unstable, disorganised and divided as well as society is too unruly, to erode freedoms, which peoples are considering to be "natural rights".
This "arkwardness" of Poles prevented nationalisation of land even under communistic rule and gross of farming land remained in private hands.
Effective destruction of welfare system is also convincing majority of population not to rely on government for anything, because ruling elites are either corrupt fraudsters (left wing) or ideological fanatics (right wing).
There is little or no hope, that government has any ability to help and if it does not harm, it is already doing very well, so few peoples are bothering to vote.[/quote]
I think this is all quite speculative; there's so many factors involved in politics and societies as a whole that it's not easy to arrive at conclusions, much less predict the future. I don't know if Europeans are more cynical about politicians than Americans; Americans may be more patriotic, nationalistic even but at the same time alot of them are extremely cynical about their political system and politicians. Actually I myself am more cynical about the two party corporate system in America than I am about the systems we have in the countries of the EU. Corporations giving money to politicians is forbidden or very limited here and rightly branded as corruption. Also since there are usually at least 3 big parties within the EU countries, the politicians are to a much bigger degree forced to actually talk about the issues and have to think about cooperation with another party all the time since they hardly ever have a single party majority needed to pass a law.
On the subject of the police state, I guess western Europe and in particular the UK is further down that road than Eastern Europe and Eastern Europeans will definately not allow it to happen in their countries as they still have relatively fresh memories of how that was under the de-facto rule of the soviets. But however I dislike to say it, a strong policing capability may be a big asset at some point during the PO economic crisis in order to be able to keep society from turning into chaos. Also that will pass though; if society has adjusted to a low wealth solar paradigm and everybody got used to that, the "national state of emergency" will be ended.
Something else now: As Europe is mostly an urbanized area, and in most cases you're never a 100 km away from a medium or big city, does it make sense for us to start a farm in case we expect a total meltdown of authority?(Which I don't, but what if?) _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:09 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
EnergyUnlimited; I might not know that much about the Polish economy but isn't there a huge difference in economic welfare between the major population centres and the rural areas? The rural areas having hardly profited from the economic growth while things in the major cities have improved alot? Where do you live?
If you visit Poland, you will observe striking differences in wealth in cities, towns and countryside.
Major cities are now looking quite modern and visitor would say, that they benefited from economic transformation.
That is however deceiving. Even if visually everything looking great, quality of life of city dwellers did not improve so much. In fact majority of them are struggling more, than lets say 5 or 10 years ago.
Those poor sheeple are also falling right now into one trap of western lifestyle called debt.
I call that phenomenon city rat race. I would certainly not like to take a part in that exercise and I am really greatful for my karma, that I got an opportunity to opt out of this nonsense from position of the wealthy.
I live at seaside village bordering with national park, which is considered very wealthy.
We live out of tourism (I am pensionate owner myself), fishing and there are also few wealthy farmers as well as single moms with children of unknown origin there.
I am also keeping myself busy as heating systems maintanance engineer, you know - one who accept PO should not rely on tourism as the only source of income, not to end up as a sitting duck...
On the other hand, if you go more inland from my village, there are other villages, where time had stopped in early XX century.
One can make a lot of jokes about how poor those people are or point out that their daughters are "hunting" at the roadside for passing by drivers etc, but nevertheless those peoples are trully selfsufficient and they accepted their fate and already live in post peak world never experiencing another one before.
Ironically, that is the best asset of Poland in preparations for economic decline - population which is impartial to hardship, incapable to organise itself and demand better life.
For example if they dont have money for medication - well it is time to die and they accept it.
Quote:
And yeah, a 12-14% unemployment rate will be hard on any society;
That is not as bad as it initially looks.
Most of those peoples are either living in subsidence village setting and they actually can feed themself or they are working for black economy and are even wealthier than those who actually have registered job. Thats Polish specific.
Quote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
So the crash of welfare systems will hurt more in Europe...
While that is true, it also means there does exist a political willingness to take care of the hungry and desperate on the level of society; a great binding factor IMO
Any first world society, including American, Dutch or polish quasi-first world society will be able to feed its citizens.
All speculations on this forum regarding future hunger in first world are simply doomerish nonsense, save any possible climatic disaster of unimaginable proportion or Mad Maxed post atomic war US. Nevertheless our diet may have to be more vegetarian in the future...
Quote:
On the subject of the police state, I guess western Europe and in particular the UK is further down that road than Eastern Europe and Eastern Europeans will definately not allow it to happen in their countries as they still have relatively fresh memories of how that was under the de-facto rule of the soviets. But however I dislike to say it, a strong policing capability may be a big asset at some point during the PO economic crisis in order to be able to keep society from turning into chaos. Also that will pass though; if society has adjusted to a low wealth solar paradigm and everybody got used to that, the "national state of emergency" will be ended.
The more you are dependant of modern life style, the more policing you will need during transition to more primitive life.
Taking this into account, one can argue that Eastern Europe will do nicely with less of oppressive policing than western counterpart.
As you may realise, peoples here are not so frightened of hardship like those in Germany or in the US.
Quote:
Something else now: As Europe is mostly an urbanized area, and in most cases you're never a 100 km away from a medium or big city, does it make sense for us to start a farm in case we expect a total meltdown of authority?(Which I don't, but what if?)
In Poland there is relatively few large cities and 40% of peoples are still relying on countryside economy, not necessary being farmers.
About 20% are directly involved in farming.
City dwellers usually have some not too distant families in countryside and they would be usually supported if need arise.
However part of urban population would be screwed up in collapse situation, but these are so hopeless and helpless people, that one would not expect too much troubles from them.
They would digest themself in their gettos largerly unnoticed by "outsiders".
NB. I live about 130 km from nearest "city", albeit one mid size town of 90 thousands is 30 km away, another small town of 20 thousands 20 km away.
Plenty of farmland (and farms) around.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Feb 09, 2006 Posts: 69 Location: Maastricht, the Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Hi,
yes I think there is a greater unity amoung the Europeans but dont include the British in that. WTF do i know about it? well I am British but now live in Maastricht and I'm well glad to get out of that country.
Britain has gone from a 1st rate to 3rd rate European nation within a generation. There delaying on joining the EU as a full member and their so called special friendship with the US has lost them a lot of respect from the other big EU nations.
The British public themselves seem lost. Many hate the Americans, some love them. At my old local pub they flew the Union jack and Stars and Stripes outside. They even celebrate US independence day in London at some venues. An event that was the culmination of a war which saw many British soldiers die. How insane is that?
Also the British are an island people and have a xenophobic attitude to the continentals especialy the French (the old enemy) and the Germans (2 world wars). This xenophobia is not helped by the media who are quick to denounce anything remotely racist but quite often promote anti European attitudes with the public.
I think the EU otherwise will hold together but the localization that will be forced upon us by peak oil will mean little interaction with more distant states.
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Grautr wrote:
Hi,
yes I think there is a greater unity amoung the Europeans but dont include the British in that. WTF do i know about it? well I am British but now live in Maastricht and I'm well glad to get out of that country.
Britain has gone from a 1st rate to 3rd rate European nation within a generation. There delaying on joining the EU as a full member and their so called special friendship with the US has lost them a lot of respect from the other big EU nations.
The British public themselves seem lost. Many hate the Americans, some love them. At my old local pub they flew the Union jack and Stars and Stripes outside. They even celebrate US independence day in London at some venues. An event that was the culmination of a war which saw many British soldiers die. How insane is that?
Also the British are an island people and have a xenophobic attitude to the continentals especialy the French (the old enemy) and the Germans (2 world wars). This xenophobia is not helped by the media who are quick to denounce anything remotely racist but quite often promote anti European attitudes with the public.
I think the EU otherwise will hold together but the localization that will be forced upon us by peak oil will mean little interaction with more distant states.
That is a very good summary of the British public attitude to Europe, we have been totally hypnotised by the Thatcherite promise. We hate everyone. For some of us it is embarrassing, but is how it is.
I used to take great joy in explaining to a mate of mine that he was european and simply denying it was like a Nigerian denying he was African. He wouldn't have it though.
Sorry, thats a bit off topic.
I think the great promise of the EU was one of military alliance, and had we gone for a federal europe we would at least have a balancing power in the world. The US didn't want this to happen and the UK was still thinking that it had some kind of autonomous power of its own. Sad.
In the future we (the UK) will be begging for favours from the rest of Europe, it could have all been so different.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 550 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Energy Unlimited - it seems you live in Łeba or Ustka...
When I thought about Post-Peak Poland, I have saw advantages in today's disadvantages. Structure of workforce for example - we have many farmers, drastically more than Western Europe. Poland is also self-sufficient in food production, and it is not so mechanized (small farmers share machines).
In western and nothern part of country state posesses huge areas of not used farmland which without recultivation can be used to plant rapseed to biodiesel agriculture. Rapseed is weed and can grow everywhere. Some farmers grow it and because it's not regulated and not taxed rapseed oil costs about 1$ per gallon. Rapseed oil can fully replace oil for diesel engines as they were originally designed to be fueled by arachid oil. There will be enough fuel for agriculture.
Electricity. We are heavilly depenadant on coal - on the other hand we are 8th biggest producer of coal in world, and one of the main exporter countries. Many mines were closed and robbed, but we have much coal still in the ground and ultimately we will have to reopen closed mines and open new - especially in the east of country where coal haven't been extracted.
So we have energy for transition to green economy which in my opinion is inevitable.
Post-german rail infrastructure is very dense in western half. It's not that bad as many think it can be. Energy Unlimited nailed it, countryside lives back in 1907 after state socialism collapsed. Unusual, but it is quite common for the land we got from Germany after WW II.
But I'm not that optimistic as Energy Unlimted about keeping freedom, I think that there will be "national state of emergency". Even if we have so much advantages economy will turn into depression (in optimistic version - very long recession), this will cause strikes, inflation, bankrupcies... People especially in cities will be angered. We had similar situation in 1980-81 but state stopped social revolution. I would risk a statement suggesting a shift to a planned economy for some time... it will be popular all over Europe in my opinion.
I'm a minimalist. I don't need car, Emporio Armani suit and prove my economic status everywhere. I hate being in debt, and I don't owe a penny. I want to make home more energy sufficient and storage some goods in case of an emergency. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
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Well it's been 17 years and economy is still only at some 74% of German per capita GDP (or 53% of US or Irish - worse than in 1990 I believe). I guess that many people were expecting miracles that simply failed to materialize.
