I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:43 am Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
MonteQuest wrote:
Yes, many factors. But disease is the #1 player, and she knows no bounds. She will take the rich, the poor, the well-fed and the hungry alike.
This is true, but it is mostly those who are weak (i.e., poor, old) who will die. There will be a lot more outbreaks in places where people are weak and malnourished and there is not proper sanitation. Also, there are many simple, cheap things that can be done to prevent the peread of disease, like TB masks and handwashing, as well as increase survival rates, like oral rehydration salts for diarrhea. Things like this may be readily available in developed countries, but not in the third world.
At any rate, even the enfluenza epidemic of 1918 only killed 1-2% of the population before it had run it's course. IMHO, it is unlikely for disease by itself to cause an extremely rapid die-off. I think the rate of die-off will be directly proportional to the rate of decline of food production, with disease as one of the mechanisms, but not the reason, for population decline. _________________ 'If a ruler hearkens to lies, all his officials become wicked.'
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6976 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
This could be wrong, but I remember reading more US soldiers died from the flu during WWI than from battle wounds.
Perhaps because their mobilization was the largest, quickest mass movement in history?
Imagine how many people move from continent to continent in hours every day now.
The other point being that the Spanish flu took out healthy young to middle-aged males in greater proportion than young or old or sick than ever seen before or since.
Add on that, we are so sterile nowadays; antibodies to very common bugs are not acquired.
Plus we demand drugs because our legs get twitchy when we are relaxing…
Relaxing from what I am not quite sure of…
[factual corrections please] _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1618 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
I have to agree with you there denver- disease as one of the many mechanisms- sorry MQ- a quote from Jaques Cousteau is not enough...perhaps some peer reviewed studies in major scientific magazines-? I personally could not find any...
I have to look to history for periods of die-off. The 1918 flu is our most recent case of a global pandemic- but you are right there Denver- that only accounted for 1-2%. The other recent ones- AIDS, ebola, small pox- don't even measure 1 %.
The bubonic plagues represent the heaviest hitters in terms of disease related die-offs and some say one third of Europe's population died from outbreaks of it in the 14th century. So perhaps 3 out of 9 or 10 million Europeans died there- so not a bad case study. Of course there were other factors going on there such as crop failure- but that would support MQ's view- that food shortages weaken populations to the point of disease susceptibility.
Of course I can also cite pin-point population die-offs that were very significant and due to other calamities such as war and famine. The Stalinist purges are estimated to have killed 5 to 20 million people and of course the holocaust killed upwards of 4-6 million Jews, gypsies and other assorted folks. Modern day tolls in the millions due to purges/sectarian have been seen in Rwanda/Burundi and Cambodia. If you take the deaath toll as a percentage of the total national population, you have a very significant deaath rate. As a percentage of total world population, this level of does not meet even one percent of total human population.
So there is a fair argument to be made for disease to be a very major player in die-off during the next 100 years. I would also agree with you MQ that stress due to loss of food production as well as ecological catastrophes could lead to a greater susceptibility to disease vectors.
However, I tend to think of you discussing things happening in very short order- I get the sense that you seem to discuss die-off within the span of the next 10 years and that disease would do the lion's share of the work and that we could lose from 4-5 billion people in this die-off. Am I wrong?
Like Denver, I tend to disagree with this scenario and agree with others who posit initial scenarios to do with a mixture of problems including famine and warfare. Darfur is a case in point right now. Aridity of soil and lack of rainfall mixed with overpopulation has led to famine and a serious struggle for farmland and remaining resources in the guise of inter-ethnic/inter-religious struggle. That has led to a massive "cleansing" of tribespeople that many estimate as high as a million deaaths.
Anyways, I would still place my bet on all 4 horsemen of the apocolypse instead of just one. But I agree with you MQ that disease could be the fiercest of the 4.
Joined: Jun 26, 2004 Posts: 1191 Location: Madison,Wisconsin
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
You know why I like monte? He makes people think. And think hard. And prove what they are thinking is true. Good post thuja. _________________ Azreal60
Joined: Oct 03, 2004 Posts: 550 Location: Washington State
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
I'll pile on Monte too. Jared Diamond investigated several cases of human overshoot and collapse in his book. Disease did not seem to factor in substantially.
But the folks on Easter Island did not have "scientists" recreating viruses like the 1910 avian flu for "research"
And the argument that the weak will be hit hardest has already been negated. The 1910 pandemic actually preferred healthy people. _________________ This is where everybody puts profound words written by another...or not so profound words written by themselves
Highlander 2007
Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 1018 Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
I'd have to agree that the Middle East will be toast. Rural Africa will do 'ok' (in other words, it won't be any worse than the shitstorm they are already familiar with). First worlders may initially be shielded from some of the nastiness, but their dependence on 'medications', lack of recent hardships, and total cluelessness could work against them in the longrun.
I'd also have to agree that living in a country that still has a population that remembers hardship and having to do without will be better off than one that only knows about iPods, Internet porn, and Taco Bell.
'Designer' diseases are a wildcard. Nukes change everything in an instant. As someone mentioned, the Universe seems to embrace the unpredictable. Give it your best shot... _________________ Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke
Joined: Sep 30, 2005 Posts: 461 Location: Baltimore County, Md
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
If you dispassioantely evaluate the 'odds' of which black swan will kickstart the downward spiral of humanity, I'll bet anyone here $5 that it will be the a change of government pakistan, where the men with moustaches are ousted and the men with beards gain control of the islamic bomb. the day the islamists get control of the pakistani arsenal is the day that a nuclear exchange with India becomes almost a certainty. we could see 500 million souls perish in a very short time as the combined arsenals could make the overpopulated subcontinent all but uninhabitable. the effect of the rest of humanity would be nothing short of a cataclysmic economic depression, with all the political monkey business that entails.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:59 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
thuja wrote:
?? lol
By business as usual I just mean that large scale die off events take place now for a bunch of reasons that can can be summarized as "poverty."
One aspect of being poor is being relatively invisible to more wealthy people. So when local die off situations begin to occur, it will feel pretty much like business as usual to those not directly involved. Except that that the events will increase. The usual chaos of explanations will be provided.
I agree that a slow, grinding intensification of worldwide poverty will be the road that the die-off takes.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
TommyJefferson wrote:
kochevnik wrote:
But the truth is, none of us know how bad it will or will not be - we're all playing a big giant roullette wheel. Red is the city, black is the country, the number being the nation or area.
Wrong.
Randomness is a factor, but it is minuscule in comparison to the choices humans make.
? Yes, and it's precisely those choices other humans make, in times of crisis, that tend to be random - at least from your POV.
The point kochevnik was trying to make, and I agree, is we're likely heading towards chaotic times- without historical precedent.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
I had food poisoning just the other week, pretty severe, with fever. Didn't go to the hospital though (can't afford it), but hey, I didn't die. Just felt like I was going to....
But then, I'm pretty outspoken about expecting to be one of those who kick the bucket soon after TSHTF, as I don't have good health, depend on meds, and have had pneumonia a few times. I expect to die of something like pneumonia. Eh.
BTW, the twitchy leg thing, "restless leg syndrome," is no joke, it's a neurological problem, but I guess nobody knows the cause. So many of these weird neurological problems cropping up, like autism, with no clear cause....
I was diagnosed with restless leg syndrome (!) but it was actually withdrawal from a medication. Fabulous medications whose withdrawal symptoms are almost worse than the condition they're treating....something else we can look forward to when things go in the crapper - withdrawal from our needed medications, and shortened lifespans from having to try to live without them. Well, we're living on borrowed time anyway... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
[quote="Judgie"]
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
max_power29 wrote:
The ones that don't go down peacefully will lash out in extreme violence and this will cause a downward spiral of more violence which spawns more violence. The violent people will take what little resources other people dieing off peacefully in their immediate areas have.
Again, that is unlikely.
You are underestimating will of authoritarian fascist state (say US after 10 years from now on) to postpone collapse.
Violent peoples will not do particularly well. Most of them will be quickly shot on the spot by police death squads supported by military and vigillance groups.
And dont be mistaken here: There will be enough of resources to feed police and military and pay them.
Yes, this strategy is working so well in Iraq, for example.
In any case, if that's what it takes to SLOW the collapse - that's ALL it will do . Collapse still comes - just the timing is a little different. _________________ "People are just bastards - bastard covered bastards with bastard filling."
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
The political aspect that isn't accounted for (I think anyway) is the move to extremes when things start getting chaotic. I believe we'll see the open practice of totalitarianism in the United States if something doesn't check in first. Due to the inability for a "free and democratic society" to adjust quickly and accurately to a situation such as the negative affects of peak oil and climate change, I think the fist initial reactions will sway (in terms of politics) to either the extreme left (strong advocacies of socialism, communism,nationalization of industries and infrastructure) or to the extreme right (which will, as usual, only benefit the lucky, the wealthy, and the political entities involved) . I think in terms of your politics, be prepared for the worst that isn't already here yet. We're only going to see more government attempts at controlling the populous in the future if things get out of hand in a way that threatens the establishment.
I'm sure others have different ideas of the future political spectrum. It is quite possible that the nation would fragment into smaller nations based on access to energy, food supplies, and trade.
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario
denverdave wrote:
IMHO, it is unlikely for disease by itself to cause an extremely rapid die-off. I think the rate of die-off will be directly proportional to the rate of decline of food production, with disease as one of the mechanisms, but not the reason, for population decline.
Well, of course. That goes without saying. The inability to maintain food production, sanitation, and healthcare for 6.7 billion will bring about all manner of infectious diseases, strife, poverty and conflict. We will no longer be able to hold the death rate at bay.
While many people think we can mitigate all this with renewables and conservation, I dare say I would be more ready to accept the reality of a permanent "war footing" as Aaron alluded to earlier.
Resources that could be used to mitigate PO will be used to wage war over the remaining oil and gas resources...just like we are doing right now.
Funny thing is...we might devastate the world's population by billions with war..and then attempt to rebuild..while still in overshoot, only delaying the die-off.
The population went up due to the population sustainability of fossil fuels following germ theory, and it will go down as they decline—although there is uncertainty as to what a sustainable global population would be without them. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
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