Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1139 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Hi, folks. Longtime listener, first time caller. How about a European perspective from outside Europe? I’m Canadian, but I’m also a citizen of Ireland and, thus, the EU.
I think the EU has a bright future if folks can just accept the idea they have some things in common they need to share in Brussels. Some things need to be handed over. If people can trust each other to put the good of the community first, there’s no problem. It was going pretty well, till recently.
Frankly, I think it was a mistake for the EU to expand as quickly as it did. The Union shouldn’t have treated the collapse of the Iron Curtain like the breaking of the glass in the display window of the local bakery, instantly sucking up all the goodies it could lay its hands on. I mean, where were they going to go? Leave Europe and join someone else? The Union should have taken its time admitting new members. Let them ramp up their economies, tighten up their legal systems, give them time to adjust while associating with the rest. Joining the Union should have been a coveted privilege. Instead, it was treated like a free-for-all orgy. The countries of Eastern Europe should have been admitted slowly, one at a time, over the next generation or so. It’s too late now, so the Union is swamped with low-wage workers who were still living under Communism while they were in university.
I also agree with some others here that the UK is the biggest drag on the EU. It pains me to say it, since most of ancestors hail from the British Isles, but it’s true. Britain needs to wake up, look around, and realize where it is and what the realities of it situation are. Folks, you are not part of America. You are not an unincorporated chunk of Massachusetts. You’re part of Europe. Ten thousand years ago, you could’ve walked from Dover to Calais; the only difference since is some ice melted and flooded a valley. But, people in Britain don’t seem to be able to make the commitment. They know in their heads they’re in Europe, their trading partners are far and away primarily in Europe, their past, present, and future are in Europe. But their hearts can’t turn away from that big, cowboy hat wearing, toothpick-chewing, navel-gazing chunk of the empire they lost 200 years ago. They won’t harmonize immigration controls, they won’t adopt the euro, they bitch at every turn about EU policy… they can’t commit. And while they can’t, they’re not a fit partner to the EU. They ought to be expelled until they grow up, if ever.
I wish to God Canada could get out of NAFTA and join the EU… but it’s not going to happen. We are where we are, and Britain is where it is — in Europe, in the EU, and not in America, not in NAFTA. Wake up and thank your lucky stars! Canada’s saddled itself with a huge fat guy shoveling in $2 billions of borrowed goodies a day (some of them from us), and when the big old economic infarc’ finally hits him, we’re gonna be crouched there with the paddles trying to resuscitate the big slob while the lights go out everywhere north of the Rio Grande. You really want in on this? Trust me, you don’t. Canadians might be stupid enough to think this can last forever, but that doesn’t mean you should. Get serious about Europe and get on with it, and stop acting like some big offshore prima donna.
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 6:26 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Alcassin wrote:
Energy Unlimited - it seems you live in Łeba or Ustka...
You got it about right.
Rowy, where I live is between those two.
Where are you from?
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When I thought about Post-Peak Poland, I have saw advantages in today's disadvantages. Structure of workforce for example - we have many farmers, drastically more than Western Europe. Poland is also self-sufficient in food production, and it is not so mechanized (small farmers share machines).
In western and nothern part of country state posesses huge areas of not used farmland which without recultivation can be used to plant rapseed to biodiesel agriculture. Rapseed is weed and can grow everywhere. Some farmers grow it and because it's not regulated and not taxed rapseed oil costs about 1$ per gallon. Rapseed oil can fully replace oil for diesel engines as they were originally designed to be fueled by arachid oil. There will be enough fuel for agriculture.
With current relatively low use of liquid fuels per capita in Poland, relatively low population density and large arable land some biofuels should do nicely to provide for agriculture, basic public transport and to secure supply of goods into cities.
All biofuel schemes would probably have to be run under emergency laws to succeed.
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Electricity. We are heavilly depenadant on coal - on the other hand we are 8th biggest producer of coal in world, and one of the main exporter countries. Many mines were closed and robbed, but we have much coal still in the ground and ultimately we will have to reopen closed mines and open new - especially in the east of country where coal haven't been extracted.
So we have energy for transition to green economy which in my opinion is inevitable.
Energy Watch Group is suggesting that Poland will no longer export coal after 3 years from now on, and within next few years it will have to import part of it.
It is possible that we can avert this scenario for a while by great increase of minig efforts and at greater life loss (miner casualties per weight unit of mined coal).
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But I'm not that optimistic as Energy Unlimted about keeping freedom, I think that there will be "national state of emergency". Even if we have so much advantages economy will turn into depression (in optimistic version - very long recession), this will cause strikes, inflation, bankrupcies... People especially in cities will be angered. We had similar situation in 1980-81 but state stopped social revolution. I would risk a statement suggesting a shift to a planned economy for some time... it will be popular all over Europe in my opinion.
Idea is to keep some freedom at least.
Traditional national unruliness of Poles will greatly help here and national emergency is most unlikely to stop "speculators" or prevent surge of corruption of biurocrats, police and other services.
It is also unlikely that Poles will start shooting each other once difficulties arrived (what is a concern in case of Americans for example) and most of them will probably bite their teeth and try to make it through with limited violence only.
There will be much strikes and national complaining, as usual, but nothing will be achieved by that means.
Some urban areas would certainly become no go zones in that scenario, but what the point to visit those at the first place?
Planned economy? Yes. For certain critical sectors of industry are going to be subjected to such approach in all first world countries.
I am less optimistic in terms of longer term future. I think that initially emerging green economy will gradually decay into neofeudal future in process best described as long, permanent emergency state.
That means that PO recession will only end once relatively primitive steady state economy is achieved.
There will be a period of more or less authoritarian rule meantime.
So within century or so we may expect overlords to return, urban class to shrink etc, like in the good old past.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3788 Location: over here
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:44 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
The fact that 20% of the Polish population is directly involved in agriculture does indeed make a good case IMO that Poland might do relatively better post PO than most of the western European nations. How do you think the fact that Poland has a very homogenous population will affect it's post PO future? it's a plus if you ask me.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Energy Watch Group is suggesting that Poland will no longer export coal after 3 years from now on, and within next few years it will have to import part of it.
It is possible that we can avert this scenario for a while by great increase of minig efforts and at greater life loss (miner casualties per weight unit of mined coal).
Same thing in Holland with natural Gas; Netherland has been a great exporter of the stuff for decades, but we're starting to run out of the stuff.
Interesting Fact: The EU was started as a union of coal and steel production; the reasoning behind this was that if we can control the production of those two commodities we jointly control the raw materials that are needed for the war industry. And due to this treaty alot of coal and iron ore mines were closed among which a couple in Netherland. Later, in the eighties alot of the state owned British coal mines were closed; these could all be opened up again.
Also, due to the low price of coal there's hardly been any investment in coal production. So though I'm not happy at all with coal (considering Global Warming) I think it will go a long way in the medium run in Europe. I just hope clean coal tech will be cheap enough to help offset some of the environmental damage it's going to cause .
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Idea is to keep some freedom at least.
Traditional national unruliness of Poles will greatly help here and national emergency is most unlikely to stop "speculators" or prevent surge of corruption of biurocrats, police and other services.
It is also unlikely that Poles will start shooting each other once difficulties arrived (what is a concern in case of Americans for example) and most of them will probably bite their teeth and try to make it through with limited violence only.
There will be much strikes and national complaining, as usual, but nothing will be achieved by that means.
Some urban areas would certainly become no go zones in that scenario, but what the point to visit those at the first place?
I'm really glad we don't have guns in Europe, I expect to see lots of riots in highly urbanized Western Europe, of the likes we saw in Paris two years ago (amazingly nobody was shot in those riots).
Strikes; probably not so much in Western Europe; the labor unions in most of Western Europe are dead in spirit, they are more like economic-scientific institutions nowadays calculating what reasonably could be gotten from employers in a good economy and very forthcoming when a big company is in trouble if employment can be saved by workers taking a paycut. They'll look more at their economic models and are likely to relatively quickly adapt their strategies to a declining oil world; much more so than the militant unions of the past; a big plus if you ask me. Ofcourse worker militancy will rise but more likely are mass protests to be social with the ones that have lost their jobs; this will put mostly the government in trouble with ever rising deficits, and not a chance to make up that deficit when the economy booms again, like it always did in the past after a few years of recession.
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Planned economy? Yes. For certain critical sectors of industry are going to be subjected to such approach in all first world countries.
I think mostly energy related sectors will be nationalized, I don't have to explain that. What is great is that many western European countries are already relativily heavily investing in alternative energy: Ireland, Netherland, Denmark (!) and Germany (!) are forging ahead with big windmill parks. Germany and Spain with solar and Sweden with biofuels. And I'm sure these initiatives will explode in size after we have oil prices of over a 100$ for a few years.
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I am less optimistic in terms of longer term future. I think that initially emerging green economy will gradually decay into neofeudal future in process best described as long, permanent emergency state.
That means that PO recession will only end once relatively primitive steady state economy is achieved.
There will be a period of more or less authoritarian rule meantime.
So within century or so we may expect overlords to return, urban class to shrink etc, like in the good old past.
I guess the longer term future is where our main difference lies, Energy Unlimited (well I guess in this respect I differ with most of the people on this board). I think after a 2-3 decade rollercoaster ride for the whole world in every respect discussed on this board, the world and Europe will sail into calmer waters again; the term post industrial society has been around for quite some time but I think only when most of our energy comes from newables that we can truly speak of a post industrial era. And that I think will be the case by 2040 or so; all the industry and economy that is left will be rationalized on the price of power as we get it from rewables. That means many products that we use now will either have disappeared or will look very different in order to save energy. The Ideology of growing prosperity will have been replaced by one of sustainability and we will be getting some of the freedoms back that we had lost in the previous decades. We will all be alot poorer, but quite happy (actually when i come to think of it, Poland's poor could be better off by then)......(hmmmm I wonder if I should write my own PO scenario now )
Anyway, I guess the longer term future is easiest to disagree on, and I don't agree with the neo-feudalism scenario, at least not in Europe. (it might happen in other parts of the world)
BTW I want to thank everybody for the great input in this thread so far, very "enjoyable" and a discussion about the European future was sorely lacking on PO.com until now. Keep it coming!
PS welcome to the board, Nickel _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 524 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Energy Unlimited wrote:
Where are you from?
Now I'm still in Warsaw but I'm moving to Upper Silesia on few days, I have proposition to take Ph.D. in political studies in Warsaw. I have to rethink everything But on vacations I want to bike in Bornholm, I hope I'll do that eventually.
Energy Unlimited wrote:
Energy Watch Group is suggesting that Poland will no longer export coal after 3 years from now on, and within next few years it will have to import part of it.
It is possible that we can avert this scenario for a while by great increase of minig efforts and at greater life loss (miner casualties per weight unit of mined coal).
We have peaked in '70 but on the other hand around half what we have in Upper Silesia is in Eastern Poland, we have to just start digging.
The government has an idea to build a nuclear powerplant, but after Chernobyl I think that it won't pass, we haven't seen blackouts for many years. So public generally will oppose.
Being a miner is tough job, bet they will be paid well - they are the most dangerous striking group of workers in Poland.
Quote:
Traditional national unruliness of Poles will greatly help here and national emergency is most unlikely to stop "speculators" or prevent surge of corruption of biurocrats, police and other services.
Army has a respect in society, that's true. The draft is still around but next year it will be recalled. Our civil service will be quite useful, after 1997 flood Poland started to teach civil services to prevent dangers, so I won't call myself a doomer.
Moreover our "bloody communist regime" killed around 100 people during martial law while Pinochet killed thousands. Poles don't like to shoot, it's seen as an unpatriotic. And most of them don't see the need to have a gun. Sure bribes wil help, everybody in this country bribed once, if not he/she is not a Pole.
More people believe in "nanny gov" - that's why Civic Platform with liberal views lost to paternal conservatives. Poeple in general don't like capitalism in Poland with exception to city rats - but they will be doomed. High suicide rate will be expected.
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Some urban areas would certainly become no go zones in that scenario, but what the point to visit those at the first place?
Tourism - R.I.P
But I think that good old tanks will be placed in certain areas also, as it happened in 1981.
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So within century or so we may expect overlords to return, urban class to shrink etc, like in the good old past.
Middleearth won only in a Tolkien vision
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permanent emergency state.
It's fascism. You should know that
In my opinion something similar to agrarianism will be the future mainstream in Poland. But I reckon one thing as Karl Marx said: "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." State can tax me much, but get out of my private life with clerical diseases. Anyway I will fight church, I see this mafia as a profiteer of every crisis.
Poles will have to deal with their own communities (in cities they are so alienated that they don't know who lives next door), so a local democracy must be held in order to have some of the freedom on local level. And try to cede as much power to community as possible. This will be a struggle against the state.
We need to keep Europe sufficient and still integrated. This will need more responsibility from our leaders.
Bas:
Yup, burning coal is not fun, especially to Dutch. When I will be quite succesful I will welcome Dutch few immigrants in my home if things with raising water will go bad And there is always place for one.
Air travel will be available - Zeppelins! Maybe it will take a longer time, but this is human dream to fly, you can't kill that desire just but taking out fuel. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas & Alcassin,
At this point I will specifically address one of my predictions regarding emergence of neofeudal systems in the future, as it looks like that we are not reaching agreement in this respect.
I must admit that return to quasi-feudal societal settings is my "pet theory" in respect to my viev of post PO future and anyone who read more of my posts will realise that.
First lets define what neofeudalism does and does not mean to me:
It will certainly not be a medieval type of system with paneuropean restauration of monarchies, return of barons, aristocrats etc everywhere including France.
Neofeudalism IMO will be a direct product of return to more of an agrarian life style, which we agree, is in our future.
Some form of feudal system is IMO the most stable setting in any agrarian society, or in society where large proportion of people are leading agrarian life style.
Return to neofeudalism may be an entirely peaceful process (at least in Europe), but nevertheless it will be probably irreversible one.
So lets assume, that substantial part of people are in farming village setting, happily adapting to post PO life.
You will quickly notice, that some of those farmers are better off, than other farmers. They have more land/better land, they are resourceful enough to run machinery which others cannot etc.
You will quickly find out that those will be able to purchase land of others, bit by bit, make alliances with other wealthy farmers (eg by marriages) or simply give a job-for-food for the poorest ones.
They will also be in position to make loans for those poor ones, unable to survive winter for whatever reason.
Loans will usually be made in nature and paid back in nature albeit currency equivalent will also be acceptable once currency is stable enough. Such loans could also be paid back in labour in certain situations and any unpaid debt would be customary inherited in our farming setup.
As time pass those unfortunate ones will loose most of their property (land) to better off ones and will become poorly paid labour.
With progress of time this paid labour on farms will be more and more marginalised and exploited with little or no prospect to improove its situation.
It will not be a long time before few wealthiest will subdue entire village. This phenomenon can be observed in some Polish villages right now, where excessive subserviance (in addition to well hidden hate...) to those richest is seen.
Further step will be completed when wealthiest folks from neighbouring villages begined to cooperate closely.
It is easy to realise that such developments will quickly lead to formation of owners class and worker subclass and the latter one will be subjected to increasingly abusive exploitation.
And as time pass wealthier and porer owners will form their own "casts".
Those as all hallmarks of new feudal society.
Even if some ilusion of democracy (say in form of working parliament) will prevail, we will live again in feudal systems.
Now can you comment on plausibility of this scenario?
BTW,
Alcassin, dont you agree that growing infuence of "clerical mafia" will accelerate described process specifically in Poland?
We all know very well, what confession of ones sins to a priest is for, dont we?
Well it is for the purpose of overlord (priests friend...) to know what all those little peoples are doing...
Why church is against contraception?
To allow more hands to work on overlords land and to allow more mouth to sing how great God is...
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:52 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
There seems to be a distinct lack of reality here with regards to the EU and the UK. Britain looks at the EU and sees a horrible mess - forever being forced closer and closer together by career politicians with no thought for what's the most appropriate or most sensible. You can tell just how democratic the EU is when you see their reaction to the rejection of the politicos' 'constitution'. Not so much 'we will listen to the public' as 'we will force it another way'.
The reality is the EU has been over compressed and over extended beyond sane levels. If you want a metaphor, they have been putting more cats in the bag, and tying the bag ever closer. Eventually either cats will die, or they will break out. As such the EU has a finite lifetime. As soon as a significant threat is encountered (such as peak oil) it will pull itself apart. It won't be pretty.
The UK has taken the most sensible course, benefiting from the single market aspects (which is the only bit they have ever signed up to) and avoiding the political mess that the bureaucracy becomes. Virtually no other part has value.
In the US when recession hits, certain states suffer disproportionately as a result of their inability to control their own destinies. With the euro the same fault line has been attempted in the EU - but with less to bind people together in times of crisis.
Remember, its not about globalisation and getting bigger, its about relocalisation and getting more agile. The EU is dinosaur politics and rhetoric that NEEDS to be kept at arms length. _________________ Arcane Domain
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
garyp wrote:
With the euro the same fault line has been attempted in the EU - but with less to bind people together in times of crisis.
Remember, its not about globalisation and getting bigger, its about relocalisation and getting more agile. The EU is dinosaur politics and rhetoric that NEEDS to be kept at arms length.
I couldn't disagree more with this, although it is an interesting viewpoint.
What binds the EU together is good transport links which provide easy access to Asian, Middle Eastern and African markets. We've gone to war to try and have power of these things in the past.
The UK needs to trade especially because we cannot feed ourselves. It makes sense to make it as cheap as possible. If TPTB didn't want to have war in Europe again then they would surely support closer integration.
Diplomatically we (the UK) should be much more friendly to the rest of Europe.
The tricky thing is, we don't make anything to export, and when we do its usually crap, so I don't know, maybe we can export tourism graduates in return for good engineers.
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Grifter wrote:
What binds the EU together is good transport links ... markets. The UK needs to trade e... It makes sense to make it as cheap as possible.
See, your making my case for me.
The EEC makes sense. A single trading area, making it easy for goods and services to be exchanged in a single market, etc. - its all good. However that's not what the EEC turning into the EU has become. Its a political entity, a political drive, and its nothing to do with the good parts of a single large trading block.
I will bet, lay money even, that come peak oil and the french sensible investments paying off, they will NOT see it as a good move to try and keep, say Italy, afloat. Borders will close, restrictions will be placed and the EU will be told to like it or lump it. We in Britain already know that's what they will do.
Power and statehood go to those with the ability to impose their will. The EU cannot, thus it is temporary.
BTW, I don't think the US will stick together either. East, west, centre and South will break apart into separate entities. It just makes more sense. _________________ Arcane Domain
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3788 Location: over here
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
garyp wrote:
The EEC makes sense. A single trading area, making it easy for goods and services to be exchanged in a single market, etc. - its all good. However that's not what the EEC turning into the EU has become. Its a political entity, a political drive, and its nothing to do with the good parts of a single large trading block.
I will bet, lay money even, that come peak oil and the french sensible investments paying off, they will NOT see it as a good move to try and keep, say Italy, afloat. Borders will close, restrictions will be placed and the EU will be told to like it or lump it. We in Britain already know that's what they will do.
Power and statehood go to those with the ability to impose their will. The EU cannot, thus it is temporary.
BTW, I don't think the US will stick together either. East, west, centre and South will break apart into separate entities. It just makes more sense.
I think we all agree that Brussels needs reforming to make the whole thing less bureaucratic and more transparent. Also things that are not absolutely neccesary for the functioning of the common market should be transferred back to the nationstate; I think that's already up in the air. The two things that basically legitimize the EU's existence are peace and prosperity; I'm pretty sure there won't be any wars between the memberstates and the common market continues to exist. In addition I think the Euro comes with some benefits that before were only reserved for the USD, so I think that will stay too. I don't think the EU will fall apart but the subsidy schemes will probably be abandoned when times get tough in the countries that contribute most. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3788 Location: over here
Posted: Thu Jun 28, 2007 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
First lets define what neofeudalism does and does not mean to me:
It will certainly not be a medieval type of system with paneuropean restauration of monarchies, return of barons, aristocrats etc everywhere including France.
Neofeudalism IMO will be a direct product of return to more of an agrarian life style, which we agree, is in our future.
Some form of feudal system is IMO the most stable setting in any agrarian society, or in society where large proportion of people are leading agrarian life style.
Return to neofeudalism may be an entirely peaceful process (at least in Europe), but nevertheless it will be probably irreversible one.
While there's nothing wrong with your theory, and it no doubt incorporates some important parameters, there are still countless parameters left out among which some very important ones; what role will our current technology play in the future (not future tech) and what role will cities play in the bigger picture? And still some other things that when added to your story could make the total look very different from what painted. Capitalism will IMO survive though, and with less to go around with, it will have harsher realities than we have now, though I would consider your view as quite doomerish European style.
Oh and when it comes to confession, I think we have the internet for that these days _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Bas wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
...Neofeudalism IMO will be a direct product of return to more of an agrarian life style, which we agree, is in our future.
Some form of feudal system is IMO the most stable setting in any agrarian society, or in society where large proportion of people are leading agrarian life style...
While there's nothing wrong with your theory, and it no doubt incorporates some important parameters, there are still countless parameters left out among which some very important ones; what role will our current technology play in the future (not future tech) and what role will cities play in the bigger picture? And still some other things that when added to your story could make the total look very different from what painted. Capitalism will IMO survive though, and with less to go around with, it will have harsher realities than we have now, though I would consider your view as quite doomerish European style.
Well, books would have to be written to discuss all possibilities...
I will try to project my argument in a simple way:
1. Capitalism is the stable system, when main source of wealth is ownership of means of industrial production.
2. Feudalism is the stable system, when main source of wealth is ownership of arable land.
We are here all agreeing, that in the future more peoples will have to work in agriculture sector and "live of the land".
Now there is one very important question:
Will societal changes, which are about to come create a situation, where best investment will be investment in agricultural land?
If so (and I believe that it will be the case), feudalism is our future.
For capitalism to continue, you would have to find alternative way of economical functioning of cities.
As long as I am concerned you must have large industrial sector somewhere as well as consumer base for city to function well.
It is not necessary for actual manufacturing to go on in city, it may also be done in Indian village, but nevertheless once manufacturing sector is marginalised we will not need many traders, services, bankers and other papershufflers etc...so economy of city is gone.
So, if you expect that as a result of PO industrial manufacturing sector will substantially shrink worldwide, you should expect transition to feudalism.
However if you expect, that alternative energy sources will allow to carry on with production of large volumes of consumable goods, you may expect that some form of capitalism may survive.
That will be weird capitalism in any case.
It will be devoid of growth, basic quality of capitalism as we know it.
And no growth means that position of bankers will be marginalised...stock exchanges will hardly be needed...it does not sound like true capitalism anymore...
Anyway, my bet is for neofeudal future, albeit I may be wrong.
BTW,
Electronic confession? Not in Catholic church, as long as I know.
Again being atheist I may be wrong. I dont attend church and dont know how it really is.
I also believe, that relatively homogenous society of Poland is an asset in face of expected crisis.
Last thing, what distressed community need in such a time are ethnical tensions.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Fri Jun 29, 2007 1:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3788 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Quick reply, will answer more elaborately later:
Before the Industrial revolution we already had the French revolution and a considerable portion of the population living in cities in Europe. Add to this technology like solar, wind, computers and all the mechanical knowledge that we have now, and add to that the tradition of democratic constitution and labor unions etc; does that matter to your theory?
I don't really have a theory myself; it's kinda of hard with so many variables to make one that sounds really plausible and it's much easier to critisize someone else's than come up with your own but:
it seems to me that your theory is based on the growth paradigm; more or less repeating earlier prehistoric history in which at first you had autonomous agricultural settlements which, as population grew, came to be ruled by an upper class. It's basically the reverse from what we're facing; decline. The only really plausible premise for neo-feudalism in my eyes is if there would be a global nuclear war, after which we'd have to start from the bottom again. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Grautr wrote:
Hi,
yes I think there is a greater unity amoung the Europeans but dont include the British in that. WTF do i know about it? well I am British but now live in Maastricht and I'm well glad to get out of that country.
Britain has gone from a 1st rate to 3rd rate European nation within a generation. There delaying on joining the EU as a full member and their so called special friendship with the US has lost them a lot of respect from the other big EU nations.
The British public themselves seem lost. Many hate the Americans, some love them. At my old local pub they flew the Union jack and Stars and Stripes outside. They even celebrate US independence day in London at some venues. An event that was the culmination of a war which saw many British soldiers die. How insane is that?
Also the British are an island people and have a xenophobic attitude to the continentals especialy the French (the old enemy) and the Germans (2 world wars). This xenophobia is not helped by the media who are quick to denounce anything remotely racist but quite often promote anti European attitudes with the public.
I think the EU otherwise will hold together but the localization that will be forced upon us by peak oil will mean little interaction with more distant states.
Xenophobic??? You have to be joking. I'm from London and 50% of the population was not born in England. There are over 100 hundred languages spoken in London. It's has just over taken NY as the centre of trade and finance. If you had to name the most international city in the world you would have to say London in almost every respect. Hardly an isolated island mentality.
Also, stars and stripes?? Celebrating US independence day?? What fking nonsense. Never have I seen that personally, in the news paper, on the radio or any other form of media.
What we (UK) object to is a centralisation of power in Europe and an idiotic one size fits all monetary policy. Watch Spain’s economy go down the tube as the Euro rates increase because of the upturn in economic growth and hence inflation in Germany.
The initial mistake was made by Germany and France when they ignored Britain and built the EU around their continental block. This gave the impression to the British public the EU project was simply a Franco/German domination of Britain rather than a political and economic partnership.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 524 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Fri Jun 29, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: Fellow Europeans, what's the future of the EU?
Energy Unlimited:
I'm an "agressive atheist", I think that religion is irrational motive to explain things, but moreover it is an excuse for commiting atrocities. No matter what religion offers it is pain in the ass.
Poles are religious. This really stinks, and makes me single, each time I choose, each time I hear, feel and suffer from catholic bullshit.
But anyway - feudalism is rather a system where peasantry belongs to land, they cannot be expelled but also they cannot move without permission of landlord.
So in political theory you propose agrarianism. (But if you like to call it "feudalism" no problem) Sure, I think this will be inevitable, but I think that city will have some industry - like chemical, biological and so on, during wars - the need or culture will be much deeper. It will be also great time for newspapers. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
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