I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 2:48 pm Post subject: The best country to be in for PeakOil
Russia came first in my little investigation. Reasons are simple:
Resources: Russia has a lot of oil and gas reserves ( and soon taking over the North Pole's). The country will be able to keep its lights and industry long after others have collapsed. Moreover Russia doesnt consume as much as smaller western countries or the USA.
Military: Russia can defend itself and has a decent military and nuclear weapons.
Economy: Russia relies less on imports for basic commodities than western countries.
Territory: Largest country, diverse climate, plenty of water.
Agriculture: A lot of places in Russia and a lot of people still living in cold war era lifestyles, farming specially.
Worst countries are probably the UK or Ireland, small overpopulated islands relying on imports and climate endangered by global warming.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
I assume you're talking a major collapse. Russia could probably support its current 150 million population as this is not much higher than what it had 100 years ago. Ireland actually has roughly 1/2 the population that it had in 1845, before the Potato Famine, so it's certainly not in as bad a shape in a collapse as England.
France is amazingly fertile and supported a population of 3-6 times that of England in the Middle Ages. Rough times for the Paris region, but they've preserved most of their agricultural land and would be back on their feet before most other European countries.
My vote among the English speaking countries would be New Zealand. Relatively mild climate and fairly low population for its size. Second would be the agricultural regions of the US heartland, especially those areas with ample water and/or close to the Mississippi.
Worst countries and/or regions in the world post-collapse: Japan, England, desert SW of the U.S., southern Florida, India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East. All these areas have too many people for their agricultural resources.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
Don't forget that Russia's population is declining pretty rapidly. It's expected to lose about 11 million people just by 2015 and will be down to ~135 million. With an extremely low fertility rate, its population will continue to decrease for generations, which means that it would be more than an ideal place as land will open up and will become much cheaper (not to mention they have plenty of it).
What's the Russian attitude towards immigrants? _________________ I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
Emma,
As regards Ireland, I disagree. Apart from an all year round mild climate (almost never drops below -2C or goes above 25C) and endless rainfall, the countries population is 6million as opposed to 8.5million in 1845. Ireland also has the best wind resource in Europe along with Scotland. If it wasn't for the past decade+ long boom, I would say Ireland was the best place to be post crash but as we expand and build over agricultural land, national monuments etc. and we take in 150,000 immigrant each year this advantage is fast diminishing.
I made the decision about 18 months ago to stop focusing my attention on where to go (I spent weeks in France looking for a refuge over a 2 year period) and decided to make the most of Ireland's benefits. My advice would be to stay among your own people when TSHTF unless you happen to live in Subsaharan Africa, Pakistan, Bangladesh or any country beginning with a vowel (Ireland apart). _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 4:55 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
I can't see why you list England/UK, we have the following 'benefits' in my eyes:
1) We have the North Sea
2) We have huge amounts of agricultural land - 90% of the people live on 10% of the land.
3) We have a mild climate
4) We get none of our electricity from oil
5) Our urban structure is far less car dependant than many countries
6) We have lots wind assets
7) We have few guns and a strong central government.
I would think the UK is one of the best places to be.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:05 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
mkwin,
From my experience of the UK, I tend to agree. In fact, (dare I say it), Ireland and the UK could become very codependent. UK could provide electricity to Ireland from their Nuclear facilities and Ireland could export food to the UK (in WWII Irish food was a huge factor in Britains survival). The UK along with Ireland also has a very strong national identity. And properly husbanded the remaining North Sea oil and gas could be strung out to last for decades. Ireland also has significant gas reserves off the west coast that have not yet been exploited. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
mkwin wrote:
I can't see why you list England/UK, we have the following 'benefits' in my eyes:
1) We have the North Sea
Drying up quickly last time I checked
2) We have huge amounts of agricultural land - 90% of the people live on 10% of the land.
and 90% of people aren't agricultural at all. You can't displace that many people and have them work on farms the day all goes south.
3) We have a mild climate
With the global warming and gulf stream shutting down, climate will be like siberia's (same latitude) never mind all the flooding
4) We get none of our electricity from oil
No we import most of it from Russia (gas)
5) Our urban structure is far less car dependant than many countries
True, public transports are excellent (I live in London). Traffic is still a problem and people dont rely on public transports to deliver goods to shops in the city.
6) We have lots wind assets
May help to power a few cities at most, but we still rely on oil heavily . As you said we dont use oil that much for electricity anyways.
7) We have few guns and a strong central government.
When 90% of the population, living in cramped cities fight for survival, they will use whatever weapon at hand.
I would think the UK is one of the best places to be.
Honestly I'd prefer to move to a place like France or Russia
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
Emma wrote:
mkwin wrote:
I can't see why you list England/UK, we have the following 'benefits' in my eyes:
1) We have the North Sea
Drying up quickly last time I checked
2) We have huge amounts of agricultural land - 90% of the people live on 10% of the land.
and 90% of people aren't agricultural at all. You can't displace that many people and have them work on farms the day all goes south.
3) We have a mild climate
With the global warming and gulf stream shutting down, climate will be like siberia's (same latitude) never mind all the flooding
4) We get none of our electricity from oil
No we import most of it from Russia (gas)
5) Our urban structure is far less car dependant than many countries
True, public transports are excellent (I live in London). Traffic is still a problem and people dont rely on public transports to deliver goods to shops in the city.
6) We have lots wind assets
May help to power a few cities at most, but we still rely on oil heavily . As you said we dont use oil that much for electricity anyways.
7) We have few guns and a strong central government.
When 90% of the population, living in cramped cities fight for survival, they will use whatever weapon at hand.
I would think the UK is one of the best places to be.
Honestly I'd prefer to move to a place like France or Russia
1) The North Sea still has at least 5 billion barrel of oil even if you take the P95 estimate, if you take the P50 it could have 15 billion. Production rates have slowed but they should rebound with the increased investment going in.
2) The will be lots of unemployed people who will go where there is work.
3) All speculation. While the Gulf Stream has slowed approximately 40%, the temperature hasn't dropped. The UK is not as far north as Siberia even at the North of Scotland.
The IPCC predictions for sea level rise would have little impact. Of course if their wrong and sea levels rise 25m well we are all up s*** creek.
4) We get 40% of our electricity from Gas, of which the majority comes from Norway who have an abundant supply. We will have to switch from gas because the gas price will go through the roof post-peak as it tracks the price of oil. However, we can make up the 40% with nuclear and wind, the government is already pro-nuclear and they are planning a fast track planning system to stop the NIMBY's.
5) Lots of goods are moved by train in the UK and our train system is electric.
6) We use oil for cars yes, but much of our car use could be cut out and 80% of the cost of petrol is tax.
7) London might be cramped but most urban areas aren’t. Most people have front and back gardens they can grow food in. It's not like we are packed in like Hong Kong or anything.
France, given is nuclear energy and strong farming industry is one of the best yes. Russia has lots of oil and gas but it is all controlled by a ruthless elite. If you want to live in a cold ruthless fascist state run by gangsters of both the government and mobster kind, then yes Russia will do fine!!
I can tell by your answers your on the very doomerish side of the spectrum. Personally I’m not a doomer. I think oil production could plateau for 10 years or more and given the fact we reduced our oil consumption by 90% in WW2 and we got by, I think we'll make a good transition.
Of course is sea levels rise by 25m, the globe warms by 10 degrees, the flying disks begin attacking and oil disappears in ten year, we are all f***ed.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
Mkwin, I think the assumption is a hard crash. In a hard crash, England is in trouble because it's population has grown so much over the last 200 years and it's become among the most densely populated countries on Earth.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
New Zealand and Canada look good. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:56 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
How about Norway:
1) Relatively small population
2) I believe there is enough farmable land so that agriculture will together with Norway's big fishing industry be able to feed the population.
3) Lots of hydropower (practically 100% of electricity production), and also forest, which can be used as a source of bioenergy.
4) Even though oil and gas reserves are rapidly diminishing, they are still quite big per capita. If Norway decided to stop exporting and use the reserves wisely, they would easily last at least a hundred years.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:13 pm Post subject: Re: The best country to be in for PeakOil
I'd consider France, read the book "French Revolutions' which is by a guy who retraced most of the Tour de France route, great book - I think I borrowed it from the library 3x. They have a canyon about the size of the Grand Canyon, that they didn't know they had until about 30 years ago! Just to give you an idea of how wild the interior of France can be.
New Zealand would be good, "land of the long white cloud" and all that, it's cold and more people want out than you or I want in, so it would be another good choice.
I also like Ireland or Scotland, I think they've both actually depopulated since their pre-industrial days, and while cold and miserable at times are very green and they have dulse, yummy, delicious, dulse.
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France, given is nuclear energy and strong farming industry is one of the best yes. Russia has lots of oil and gas but it is all controlled by a ruthless elite. If you want to live in a cold ruthless fascist state run by gangsters of both the government and mobster kind, then yes Russia will do fine!!
