Record ice loss in Arctic

Byron100

Has anyone seen any recent data on how the massive volumes of melt water draining off the Greenland ice cap is affecting the Gulf Stream? About a year or so ago, I remember reading some report how it's already showing signs of slowing, threating to disrupt the great oceanic "conveyor belt" that's propelled by the exchange of salty and fresher water in the Atlantic. And from what I understand, this process could take place in less than a decade Crying or Very sad

If the Gulf Stream carrying heat northward stops flowing, it's not going to be a pretty picture for our friends in the U.K. and northern Europe, and winters could get quite a bit colder in the northeastern USA and eastern Canada as well.

I'd love it if anyone could shed some additional light on this...

Troyboy1208

Rent the movie...Day after tomorrow. This is exactly what happens in this movie. Not a bad depiction of what could happen. Of course its dramatic and there is Science Fiction but overall its a decent flick.

fluffy · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2004 Posts: 281 Location: UK

nero

One of the things I've noticed froom looking at these sea ice maps is that they change quit significantly from day to day. I rather suspect that it is too early to tell whether or not we will reach a new minimum this year. There is a real possibility but it is very much dependent on the weather.

On the other hand the fact that we had record low amounts of ice in June and July is already a fact. Since the western arctic ocean albedo was therefore low in the high summer when the arctic ocean receives the bulk of its sunlight, I wonder if the western surface waters are warmer than usual. This summer might reverberate into next summer if there is poor ice formation this winter. What we need is a good old volcanic erruption to give is a proper winter.
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fluffy · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2004 Posts: 281 Location: UK

nero

The sea ice in the arctic is now about it's all time low.
Since it has another month of melting before the usual date of the summer minimum expect there to be another raft of news stories in about a month about how the north west passage is practically ice free.

I'll go out on a limb and say I'm expecting the summer minimum will be 10% below last year.
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Madpaddy · Expert Joined: Jun 25, 2004 Posts: 2088

Is is a coincidence that we (in UK and Ireland) have had a record wet summer. This is being caused by a relentless wave of low pressure systems. Apparently the jet stream is much further south than normal. Could this be related to a slowing of the Gulf Stream? I'm not a climatologist but my gut instinct tells me there is a connection.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6269046.stm

BrazilianPO

dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1063

What are the medium term consaquencies of an ice free pole?

Will a significantly warmer arctic ocean mean changes to the Thermohaline circulation? Plausibly shutting it down, especialy as difference in tempratuer tends to drive convection? Has this been modeled? And how long before the Tundra starts a similar accelerated unfreezing? Most of it is away from the seas so will not be too affected but even a portion of it unfreezing and releasing meathane will be another heavy feedback.

The models may be far too conservative....

ilex · Coal Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 15

Here's an expert analysis:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=742&tstamp=200708

Includes some implications ... don't sound good at all.

I agree that we'll see it free of ice much sooner than predicted. It apears that there's really nothing that extraordinary this year to explain why it's desintegrating so fast ... other than the warming of all these years and positive feedbacks.

Hey ... we can even swim at the north pole now:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/6899612.stm

Zardoz

Arctic Sea Ice Shrank Most on Record, Japan's Space Agency Says

Zardoz

Double post...
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dorlomin · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 1063

When people talk of feedbacks they dont seem to mention water vapour. As the ice melts more will be available to make the arctic a moister enviroment and water is a the biggest greenhouse gas of them all. This will produce an enourmous feedback perhaps, but one that will only start kicking in now.

With a summer ocean to the north, nothern Canada and Siberia will also experiance some pretty radical climate change. Most specificaly a melting of the permafrost and the release of methane that is supposed to hold, but it will also become much moister, where only dry arctic winds blew, they will now be moist maratime again a feedback.

One plausable negative feedback will as a defrosted grass land (or peat bog), the tundra will recieve enormouse increases of rain, this will wash a huge amount of nutrient into the arctic ocean, plausibly causing algael blooms that will tie in some of the CO2 back into the oceanic enviroment, but at the risk of turning the ocean anoxic.

A warmer arctic will mean warmer winters for Canada and Nothern Eurasia.

Cobra_Strike

Hurray! NEW RECORD!

Hell, at this rate they (whomever scored the mineral rights) will have clear ocean in which to mine and drill in.
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