link to worldoil.com:

http://worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTI ... production

the table on the page shows production for june 2007 against may 2007 against averages for 2006 and 2005. And the numbers show that june production is lower than averages for 2005 and 2006 as well as for may.

Total Supply (world):
83.71 (June 2007)
84.27 (May 2007)
84.69 (Average 2006)
84.16 (Average 2005)

How come production is dropping while prices are so high? Shouldn't market forces "generate" more supply?

Isn't China and India consuming signifficantly more each year? What areas in the world have had to cut back on consumption to leave room for increases in chineese and indian oil consumption?

Interestingly enough I see that my homecountry (Norway) has one of the largest production drops over the period. We were close to 3 mb/d in 2005 and was over 2.5 mb/d in May, but in June we saw only 2.16 mb/d... from almost 3 to slightly above 2 since 2005 to now... thats pretty steep decline.

Because all the easy oil has been tapped, now they have to resort to drilling for the hard to get oil (deep water or multiple smaller fields). Also oil doesn't just come on line in a few days, it takes time to explore and then develop a field. Plus more refineries need to be built which doesn't happen overnight.



Africa will have to cut back.



Scary isn't it.

If the trend continues, then it seems we can safely say, world oil production peaked around august 2006, according to those figures...

Add to this:



Green Car Congress

Marekt forces don't "generate" supply out of thin air, who ever suggested such a silly concept? The market reallocates based on cost....for more than 2 years since Peak happened, things aren't collapsing the way us Doomers have hoped. We haven't needed more supply because it isn't there, therefore, we use less.

I know its all a terrible blow to those of us who bought into the quick dieoff, but it sure looks so far like the "market will make do" types are winning the arguement. I'm cancelling my subscription to 'FromTheWilderness" immediately, summer is over, and we STILL don't have our Gorge.

Patience young one, Rome did not collapse in a day, or even a summer and we have so much farther to fall.

Anyone who bought into the quick die-off got suckered. It doesn't work like that. There are a lot of barriers to be broken down before the consequences of depletion reach us.

Note that that chart is only oil and natural gas liquids, aka Crude & Condensate (C&C). It leaves our tar sands for instance.
So, while I agree taht C&C have peaked, I think we will still bump along on total liquids for another year, with a shot at a new monthly record depending on the vagaries of hurricanes and accidents.

Is my reaction, to the above comments, wrong?:

production-prices: Shouldn't prices go higher and higher as production declines?

generate more supply: Market forces can't generate more supply. They might be able, for a short time, generate the Availability of more supply...

And:
"Are we now in real decline (total liquids)?": provided that FFs are not renewable, haven't we actually been in decline since we first started to use them, and, the poll question should have included a Speed in which we are in decline.....
Sorry, don't mean to nitpick....

There really should be a third option in the poll: "No way to be sure yet."

As waegari wrote, "If the trend continues"... and, I would add, accelerates, and resists all attempts to reverse it... then we'll know. For now, we could still simply be on a temporary plateau on our way up to new heights. Or a temporary plateau just before the real declines begin.

In the absence of that third option, I'll make my best guess like the others here.

Thanks for info.



Senior citizen techie would REALLY APPRECIATE if someone out there would check his diffferentiation of the normal distribution for correctness.

http://www.prosefights.org/pnmelectric/ ... stribution

Sobolewski said he tossed out his calculus book and is not into that sh.. any more while we were salmon fishing in 2007.

Sixty-nine-year old numerical analyst Dr Richard Hanson [PhD U Wisconsin, LINPACK] verified first derivative compuatation but didn't reponse to questions about 2nd. Or 3rd. Why?

Two things get worse when you grow older.

1 Your memory.
2 I forget the second.

If you can't do math when you get older, then there is PRACTICAL LITIGATION. This requires visibility.

Smiles

Higher prices will create a continous and evolving process of demand destruction/efficiency enhancement worldwide. And this could happen on multiple levels for a whole bunch of years.

And it really would be best if the process of demand destruction DID continue on for a long time. This will give us a chance to innovate properly.

Maybe you shouldn't attend a peak oil forum if an "armaggedon", hollywood style, is what you are looking for?

"The shit" is coming, it's already here, all you need is a perspective. A perspective that is not dependant upon instant JIT-everythingimmediately- sort of thinking.

As a collective, we, as human beings, are consuming and thus needing MORE OIL while due to circumstances brought upon us by the world we live in we are producing LESS OIL than the year before. Do you require any more proof to validate doomerosity than that?

I gave my take on energy depletion lecture to John and Carole Sobolweski on evening of August 27, 2007 while eating Surgeon and Halibut [lots better than Sturgeon] on deck outside in Kenwood, WA.

Both were listening intently.

Let's all hope this lecture starts them, and lots of others, THINKING about the problem.

But what to do about THE energy PROBLEM? Probably nothing. The system is moving ahead. And none of us can buck the system effectively.

The system may have to crash before the problem is confronted.



We WILL see.

regards

Actually you have argued on many occasions (under your alias ReserveGrowthRules) that market forces do generate supply when you promote the notion that demand and technology grow reserves. Furthermore, regardless of your idiotic assertion ("we haven't needed more supply because it isn't there") many people around the world are using less petroleum because there is less in the ground to be extracted (peak oil and all). One merely has to search peakoil.com for reports of regular and growing shortages in more than 30 countries world-wide and occasionally in the United States. But because you are too dense to see how this might affect you soon, you continue to troll and confuse these discussions, secure in your own stupidity.

[ Note: to those not familiar with crazedloon's modus operandi, what you are witnessing is his lame attempt at roleplaying, acting the 'doomer' in order to deny it. He regularly sets up the same red herring and asks the same idiotic question "if doom has occurred already, if we are over the peak, then why am I so smug and stupid?"] The 'market types' have made no dent on either understanding peak oil and its consequences, or mitigating the consequent shortages appearing in over 30 countries around the world.

you remain a troll crazedloon under any nom de plume

good find MrMambo! These are the first figures I see that say decline; all the agencies are still predicting 85mbd or so for this year but I think they won't be able to deny the inevitable much longer if these figures are true.