I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Not only has there not been much rain here all year, I've never seen so many sunny days in my life. Not just sunny, but CLOUDLESS. Might as well be San Diego here. We're stuck in another 10- or 15-day string of the damned things right now.
I'm very worried that, despite the cooler air and some spotty rain, the drought is actually intensifying.
Byron100 made an interesting comment noting that consecutive days of rain seem never to happen herre anymore. That's so true. In fact, old-fashioned RAIN (like you see in those old Hollywood movies) hardly ever happens . Instead, we get SHOWERS, if we're lucky. The word "rain" is disappearing from the weatherman's lexicon, .
Same thing here in Romania and a few other countries around here - almost no snow all winter, then the hot and sunny weather starts from April and there are countless sunny days with no clouds in sight.
In July we had 3 weeks of temperatures of 40 C and no rain, and blue sky ! - very strange. I remember from past years - before 2000 , when there was a hot summer day, clouds and rain were sure to come soon, not anymore
Now in September we had a few storms, I hope for more
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6548 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:19 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
A Romanian drought. That's hard to grasp, given my preconceptions about Romania. Long ago I lived in eastern Europe myself (Vienna), and I don't think "drought" was even part of the Austrian vocabulary. Back then, anyway.
The drought situation here in Virginia is worsening. Not only that, it remains very warm, with daily highs continuing to run up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above the normal highs.
The latest drought outlook for the remainder of the year has me feeling very gloomy, and very worried about my forested lands.
The prediction for the drought in Virginia and much of North Carolina is now "Persist." Previously they were calling for "Improvement."
However, some improvement is now called for for most of the rest of the Southeast, but the forecasters are quick to note that improvement in a drought of this magnitude does not equate with ending of the drought. The drought could go on . . . and on.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:38 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
It looks as though we will be moving into "stage 3" drought conditions here in NC this week. Oh well, three more weeks and I'm out of here! _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6548 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Best of luck to you in your move, Lore. The future for NC looks rather grim, so you're wise to get outta there while you have that flexibility.
If you're an outdoor type, I know you won't miss the chiggers. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 764 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Lore wrote:
It looks as though we will be moving into "stage 3" drought conditions here in NC this week. Oh well, three more weeks and I'm out of here!
Mind telling where you're moving to? If it's New York State or the Great Lakes region, I do envy you...wish I was living in one of those areas right now...
Missed out on the rain again around here...the rains either stay to the south or up north around this semi-permanent high that seems to have locked in over the Southeast.
Looks like fall is shaping up to be a warm one...and all indications are that winter will be warm as well. You should see how worried the water management people are these days. I can only hope the housing collapse puts an end to the building boom around here soon, as we really can't support many more people around here than we have already...drought or no drought.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 11:57 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Thanks for the best wishes Heineken, I've made a personal conclusion that it's now or never and things locally in the South look to be going downhill from here.
Byron100 wrote:
Mind telling where you're moving to? If it's New York State or the Great Lakes region, I do envy you...wish I was living in one of those areas right now...
I'm moving to Northwestern lower Michigan. A 63 acre old farmstead with good rich soil, ponds, improved land and a woodlot. While this all may be a holding action in the long run, for now, at least I've finally made the break away from chasing quantity in life to quality.
I was up there last weekend taking some stuff in a U-haul, lush and green, peaceful. I woke up to a cool morning on Saturday with three deer in the yard, rabbits playing, and pheasants crowing in the field. What a difference 1,000 miles makes!
A side note, yesterday they opened up the fire hydrants in our neighborhood. Everyone rushed over to fill buckets to wash cars, and irrigate their plants. It was like a scene from Baghdad. When I asked the city worker parked in his truck, how could we be wasting all this water in a time of crisis, he remarked, that the sediment has gotten so bad that they have to flush the system and the city drains also need to be flushed out since we've had no rain. I thought how fragile it's all becoming. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 764 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Lore wrote:
Thanks for the best wishes Heineken, I've made a personal conclusion that it's now or never and things locally in the South look to be going downhill from here.
Byron100 wrote:
Mind telling where you're moving to? If it's New York State or the Great Lakes region, I do envy you...wish I was living in one of those areas right now...
I'm moving to Northwestern lower Michigan. A 63 acre old farmstead with good rich soil, ponds, improved land and a woodlot. While this all may be a holding action in the long run, for now, at least I've finally made the break away from chasing quantity in life to quality.
I was up there last weekend taking some stuff in a U-haul, lush and green, peaceful. I woke up to a cool morning on Saturday with three deer in the yard, rabbits playing, and pheasants crowing in the field. What a difference 1,000 miles makes!
A side note, yesterday they opened up the fire hydrants in our neighborhood. Everyone rushed over to fill buckets to wash cars, and irrigate their plants. It was like a scene from Baghdad. When I asked the city worker parked in his truck, how could we be wasting all this water in a time of crisis, he remarked, that the sediment has gotten so bad that they have to flush the system and the city drains also need to be flushed out since we've had no rain. I thought how fragile it's all becoming.
Michigan...one of my fave states...kudos to you for making this excellent choice. I wish you the best of luck as well.
I almost made the move to New York State in 2004 (Finger Lakes region), but the ol' economic factor kinda pushed us to move to Atlanta instead. While it's certainly way better than South Florida, it's not exactly where I wanna be either, and this nasty drought is making me wish I had gone the New York route...but then again, the economics of living up there would have made life a lot more difficult than it is now for us...so I can't really say I regret it 100%. Hopefully we can be out of here by 2012 or so. I just hope Atlanta isn't looking like Las Vegas by then...LOL.
But what really ticks me off about the water factor here is that the Army Corps of Engineers is forced to drain the lakes dry to "protect" 3 endangered water-dwelling species that reside in Florida...I mean, WTF??? If a couple of godammed mussels are more important than drinking water for 5 million + people, than this is more of a phucked-up world than I thought, and that's saying an awful lot. I can only hope that dear old Sonny Perdue grows a brain soon and gives the Feds the big F.U. to protect our water before it's all gone.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Heineken wrote:
Best of luck to you in your move, Lore. The future for NC looks rather grim, so you're wise to get outta there while you have that flexibility.
If you're an outdoor type, I know you won't miss the chiggers.
With what you guys are saying, I'm glad we didn't move to NC as was our original plan - though Texas has huge problems too. But here a very long drought is not unusual, so it doesn't freak us out as much. I expect them to get more severe, though, and floods to get worse as well.
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Here in West Tennessee we're hoping for some scattered thundershowers, leftovers from the tropical storm, to come our way. But it's sunny at present. We are in a drought situation - I forget what our 'rain deficit' is but things are very dry and I have lost stuff in my veggie patch.
I should be writing this sort of stuff down in my gardening notebook....
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6548 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 10:47 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
I share your hope for those scattered thunderstorms, Laurasia, but the forecasts for this week are looking more and more iffy about getting any rain at all, at least where I am. That outcome will, as I said, give us a grand total of 0.54 inch of rain for September. We're talking desert.
It goes on and on and on, and as long as it does I will keep bitching about it here. If I stop bitching about it it will be because I've been burned off the map by forest fires. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6548 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 10:55 pm Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Ludi wrote:
Heineken wrote:
Best of luck to you in your move, Lore. The future for NC looks rather grim, so you're wise to get outta there while you have that flexibility.
If you're an outdoor type, I know you won't miss the chiggers.
With what you guys are saying, I'm glad we didn't move to NC as was our original plan - though Texas has huge problems too. But here a very long drought is not unusual, so it doesn't freak us out as much. I expect them to get more severe, though, and floods to get worse as well.
Yes, a droughty regime in Texas seems like the natural state of affairs. Here it represents a frightening trend. Our vegetation is not well adapted to it, whereas yours surely is. My house is in the middle of the woods, because when it was built that was not considered a particularly risky thing to do here.
I'll tell you what I'm thinking more and more of doing: Clearcutting my land. If the forest is going to burn off anyway, I might as well get some bucks out of it. And if the forest is gone, my house will be safer when the fires start. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2007 8:25 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Yes, Heineken, the native vegetation here is adapted to drought, and of course in a normal rain year things dry out during the late summer anyway. We're not used to the intense lush green you are there in the East.
BTW, our house is in the trees but not a fire hazard because oaks aren't especially flammable. But I would not put my house among cedars (junipers), that's for sure. We've cleared most of them away from the house and shop area because of concern for fire.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 764 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2007 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
Heineken wrote:
I share your hope for those scattered thunderstorms, Laurasia, but the forecasts for this week are looking more and more iffy about getting any rain at all, at least where I am. That outcome will, as I said, give us a grand total of 0.54 inch of rain for September. We're talking desert.
It goes on and on and on, and as long as it does I will keep bitching about it here. If I stop bitching about it it will be because I've been burned off the map by forest fires.
Heineken, you're just as bad I am about the drought....LOL. There's not a single person I know that doesn't know how distressed I am about this.
But what I'm really thinking about (and trying my dammedest to manifest) these days is the pattern finally changing...and if Texas can get floods, so can we. Past periods of climate change have one thing in common - the rapid "flip-flopping" from one extreme to another...very dry to very wet, very hot to extreme cold for example...so it's not unreasonable to expect things around here to change at some point, right??
And this looks rather encouraging, at least for us here in Georgia:
Quote:
if the models are correct...the stagnant pattern and tendency for
the east/southeast to be largely dominated by a subtropical ridge may finally
be coming to an end. The extended shows a fairly active zonal flow
evolving. A healthy cold front...with better upper-level support
than we have seen in months...supported by a good Canadian surface high
pressure area...will move into and through the County Warning Area Thursday. The
availability of tropical moisture combined with antecedent
unseasonably warm air will lead to rather unstable conditions in
advance of the front. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are likely with the passage of the
front.
(NWS, Peachtree City, GA)
So yeah, me and the weather gods have been having some real serious heart-to-heart talks lately...LOL. If only if I can get the hurricane gods to stop sulking and come out and play ball too...they just need to know that the great Southeastern High can indeed be overcome.
As for the trees around here (13 miles from downtown, and I live in the woods...woot!)...they do seem okay, if not a bit ragged around the edges. The years of letting the leaf drop stay put on my property has really helped keep the soil moisture in, so I do think that helps, as opposed to having a nasty, dried-out lawn that you typically see in the suburbs (and where I have been seeing a few dead and/or dying trees here and there).
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6548 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Sep 24, 2007 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Autumn Weather 2007
I own 75 acres of timberland, so for me drought can have serious personal consequences.
I am not seeing visible impacts on the trees yet, except the leaves on the dogwoods (which are very drought sensitive) are shriveled.
Trees' reactions to adverse conditions tend to be delayed and cumulative. As diverse stresses on a tree accumulate over several consecutive years, the tree eventually makes the decision to die. It can then die quickly or go into "decline" leading to death. Some ridgetop oaks in Kentucky are dying from the drought, I've read.
The daily continuation of highs approaching 90 compounds the problem severely. At least the nights are cooling off.
For the first time ever, some pools of water along the course of a stream on my central-VA place have dried up completely, killing the fish in them.
I am watering my most important plants to keep them alive, but if I let the water run too long, it stops. My well is thus showing the first sign of going dry.
Byron, I hope you get some rain, but I'm less sanguine about our prospects. The current pattern here is that rain gets shunted north to Pennsylvania or south to your area. The 10-day forecast holds out little hope (a 30% chance of scattered T-storms on Thursday; big deal).
Haven't seen a cloud in days. Not one; just a little morning haze. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Something to keep in mind, those who plan to move north to "avoid global warming" - changes are occurring more rapidly at higher latitudes than more southern ones.
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I can only hope the housing collapse puts an end to the building boom around here soon, as we really can't support many more people around here than we have already...drought or no drought.
