I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 5:55 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
nella;
Well, my lovely lady I admit to being surprised by your post. Perhaps for some parts of the country I'm grossly in error (Yikes!)?
I live in eastern S. Dakota and lived in northeast Nebraska small towns (1200 pop or so) for many years. Cisterns, big gardens, farmers/ranchers within a couple miles of town and so on are a very common item. Heck, we even have a huge Huderrite (sp?) colony about three miles out of town for great free range chicken, bacon and turkey.
In those two areas I know of a few "who drive an enormous distance" for a commute/job. But quite honestly very few. Lots more drive 10 to 15 miles for "jobs", but again, that's about it. Also lots drive one or two miles for employment in town. Many others are self-employed as hair dressers, barbers, electricians, plumbers and so on.
As an electronic techician when I lived in Sunnyvale, Ca, where even back then (80's) almost everyone commuted 50 or so miles a day (one way.....100 both ways) and it was considered "normal" to spend two to four hours a day commuting due also to the congestion. haha....after a awhile this country boy just couldn't hack it and high tailed it out of there.
Anyways, it appears your area is quite different from what I'm familiar with (Ne/SD). Is housing and taxes expensive there too?
Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 6:39 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
Forgive my typos, I've been on a computer I don't normally use.
My family that I mentioned live in midstate Illinois. They do have gardens and you are right, most people there do have gardens.
My sister lives in a town of 1,000. There's just not much in town in the way of jobs.
There is a bigger town of ~16,000 within oh 15 miles I quess. People do have jobs there. So I quess we'd be talking 30 miles every day round trip commute? Not a huge distance. Home prices there are low.
There are Amish foks around there. The local grocery store even has parking places for the buggies. Which begs one to wonder. Are the Amish buying or selling? Just kiddn'.
Like I said, I live a middling sized town/small city. And it's not terribly spread out at all. I like it here. I'm surrounded by farms , small livestock concerns: cows, sheep, goats, chickens, llamas and even bison. Lots of horses too. I think I'll have access to that food. 3 lakes and rivers close by as well. Housing is reasonable here, probably lower than the national average.
California? I lived in both San Diego and LA. Found out I could live in a city. But then came a time when I had had enough. So I understand ya. I wanted a little more room to breath. I wanted to slow down.
Posted: Mon May 28, 2007 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
I think that small cities and large towns have a good chance of hanging on to civility longer than almost any other place. There may be some problems, but they can probably maintain order much better than a large city. They are going to continue to be serviced by rail and bus lines. The farmer's market is a good thing to patronize now, and keep going. We may be needing those farmers much more very soon. I would say that a city of around 50,000 is a great place to be, as long as it isn't attatched to some monster city.
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 1:13 am Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
Slight off the course of the tread, but not nice reading for those, who like me, have chosen the rural village as our way to handle the 'second half of the oil age'....
BBC: Wealth gap leaves rural Russia behind
The rural village, is one place that I think would be good to handle the effects after "very little oil" and "the end of cheap energy" becomes a reality. However, we are not at that point yet, and in the current situation many of the rural villages here are dying.
The wider community that I live in has seem its population drop from over 3 000 in the 1960s to under 900 now. One concern that I have, is that the 'plateau' of the current economic forces lasts so long that the local community totally collapses. While I am moving towards greater self-sufficiency, I don't have the skills / strength to make it on my own. If the village collapses before the effects of Peak Oil becomes reality, then I am in a very bad way. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
This topic has been consuming much of my thought time lately. I currently live in a small city of 75,000 in Canada. I live near the center of the city, but have most of my mortgage paid off and my back yard is probably at least 4000 square feet big (with great soil).
In the event of a economic crisis of any nature, being able to turn the power off and heat with wood could cut my expenses down to the point where almost any income would suffice. With the mortgage paid I'd be looking at 100 dollars a month in property taxes.
Being in this small city also means that any job that I did would be in walking distance. I worry that if I buy a rural place outside the city I'd be stuck with a mortgage again and I'd have to keep my vehicle to transport myself to a job. With the crisis likely coming from oil depletion that poses a very bad situation.
I can probably grow most of my vitamins in my yard, but would probably need to buy calorie foods for my family like rice, extra potatoes or grains. I'm thinking the long emergency is a likely scenario and in such a case the rural situation could be a bad decision.
So back and forth I go, urban then rural and then back again. Today as you can see I'm thinking urban, but next week that could change again. In my situation I'm thinking that unless it's a fast large scale crash, my best option is to stay put.
Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:46 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
The urban vs rural thing is a good question. My solution is going to be to buy a relocatable, setup with solar, separate water tank collection, and waste connection, semi permanent, buy a piece of land, setup there, if my situation changes, I just get it moved, close to where I was to establish permanently. I am 30 yeard old and have enough for a house deposit, but I think this would be the best solution.
Once things really go downhill, I can relocate to my parents farm, which has 60 acres of partially flat land, 45km from Auckland city, NZ.
Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 6:43 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
h
return1880s wrote:
Very good read. What states or countries are the best and worst to relocate to?
The best of course is British Columbia, Canada. We have water, trees, and currently a climate for everyone. In all seriousness, I do think it is important to find communities (and I lean more towards rural than urban) that have a history of cooperation, peace, and compassion.
I can think of half a dozen areas in BC that qualify. The key to the transition period that we are beginning to realize is upon us, is finding what we can do presently that will also have real value in the 'post carbon' reality.
What crops can you grow, or what services can you provide that have value in today's market and are likely to have value in the future? Arbitration? Metal Work? Growing sunflowers? How does your niche fit within your neighborhood?
As we begin to have to relocalize our economy our worth will be decided by our neighbours. I propose a challenge: Determine the natural boundaries of your neighbourhood (rural or urban) and set out to inventory the skills and equipment of each of your neighbours.
I believe this is a great way to challenge some deep rooted comfort zones and begin realizing post carbon realities. I believe the inquiry will be well received as the value of such an exercise can be appreciated by a broad range of folks such as those oblivious to post carbon issues but greatly concerned about emergency preparedness.
Think of it as market research for a business plan only its a plan for your future in a world of changing value.
How about pooling the resources of those aware of Peak Oil issues to establish a learning/living centre to model the potential realities we face? The result is two-fold.
1. We can take a proactive step towards the transition.
2. We will have a large piece of well-suited land (with infrastructure, community, resources) to retreat to when S really starts to hit the fan.
How about this 1600 acre BC hide-away that just came through www.ecoproperty.ca (http://www.planetfriendly.net/property/propd.php?id=4837)
$3.2 million = 640 of us, each investing $5,000 (CDN). We could have a centre up and running within a year (co-op model with an executive to run the show) and that leaves us over 2.5 acres each to retreat to when the time comes (although a higher density community plan with more undisturbed land would be more likely).
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
IslandCrow wrote:
Slight off the course of the tread, but not nice reading for those, who like me, have chosen the rural village as our way to handle the 'second half of the oil age'....
BBC: Wealth gap leaves rural Russia behind
The rural village, is one place that I think would be good to handle the effects after "very little oil" and "the end of cheap energy" becomes a reality. However, we are not at that point yet, and in the current situation many of the rural villages here are dying.
The wider community that I live in has seem its population drop from over 3 000 in the 1960s to under 900 now. One concern that I have, is that the 'plateau' of the current economic forces lasts so long that the local community totally collapses. While I am moving towards greater self-sufficiency, I don't have the skills / strength to make it on my own. If the village collapses before the effects of Peak Oil becomes reality, then I am in a very bad way.
In NZ the opposite is the case ,
The NZ people appear to be smart to peak oil, everyone is already making the move to localized communities...
:
See this NZ Herald article :
Small-town lure for city slickers
Page 1 of 3 View as a single page 5:00AM Sunday July 22, 2007
By Jane Phare
As fast as immigrants pour into Auckland and other main centres, jaded city dwellers are heading for the country.
In terms of laying it on thick, Feilding has the market cornered. Just as Auckland cinema goers are settling in with their popcorn and chocolate-dipped icecreams, having crawled through traffic and spent 15 minutes looking for a carpark, Feilding comes in low and hard with a pre-movie promotion.
"Some days there's heaps of traffic," croons the voice to a shot of V8s racing round Manfeild autocourse. "Some days there's not," to views of a nearly-deserted main street.
The lifestyle is great but things cost less, the promotion reassures viewers, as the camera pans a range of tidy houses.
Moviegoers in Wellington and Palmerston North are getting the same treatment after the picturesque little Manawatu town decided to take action in the face of signs it was dying.
Feilding saved furiously for three years for the $20,000 marketing campaign to persuade jaded city dwellers that life in a small town would be the answer to their woes.
The urban drift of past decades sucked the guts out of small towns as people headed for the main centres looking for work, but the provinces are starting to fight back. And there's nothing like country zeal to convince townies they would be better off out of the big smoke.
The lower cost of buying a home is the biggest attraction for many. With the Auckland housing market inflated beyond the reach of many first-home buyers and tying up the capital of those who do own homes, the lure of affordable housing and freed-up capital is hard to ignore.
Add to that free parking, no traffic lights, no rush hour, dinner out for the price of a cocktail in Auckland, and the target is well and truly hooked.
In the case of Feilding, it's been voted "New Zealand's Most Beautiful Town" 13 times.
Aucklanders Ray and Angela Scott are counting down the days before they move to their new home there next month. The Scotts, originally from Christchurch, moved to Auckland five years ago and rented a house in St Heliers. Shocked by the housing prices, they bought a house in Waiuku last November.
Back then, the trip to work in South Auckland took 40 minutes, but Ray Scott now thinks the traffic was light because of the school and university terms finishing. By February this year the journey was taking an hour each way on a good day - 80 minutes on a bad one.
Scott, a car salesman, hates Auckland's traffic "with a passion" and resents the daily travelling time. He and his wife leave just after 6am every morning. Scott drops Angela, a senior nurse, at a renal dialysis unit in Manukau then drives to Pakuranga.
It was son Ian, based at Ohakea with the Air Force, who suggested they take a look at the pretty town of Feilding. After one visit they were sold. They bought a three-bedroom house on a 950-square metre section for under $300,000 - less than half what they would have had to pay in Auckland - and found jobs in Palmerston North almost immediately. The 12km trip from their home to work will take about 10 minutes.
Ray Scott is looking forward to an extra hour in bed every morning while Angela, a keen walker, enthuses about the green rural views around Feilding.
Those who have made the move to a small town advise going with an open mind and without expectations.
"If you don't like it, you can always move again," says Arrowtown resident Cerise Walton. She, her husband and young son moved south from Auckland eight years ago. Now an estate agent with the newly formed Queenstown branch of Boulgaris, Walton has watched towns like Gore, Clyde and Twizel expand in the past few years. Gore is now almost an extension of neighbouring Alexandra. Geraldine, an hour out of Christchurch, is booming.
Murray Cleland, president of the Real Estate Institute, says people moving out of the city look for cheaper housing in a small town not too far from a major centre. Access to good health services and specialist care is a concern for older people.
Cleland, based in Hamilton, says older people are increasingly selling up valuable properties in Auckland and moving to towns like Morrinsville, Te Aroha and Matamata. The towns near Palmerston North are also benefiting from newcomers moving into the area.
Those who move get a decent house and a lump sum to invest. "They are debt-free and they can have a lifestyle. For many, all their capital was tied up in their Auckland home."
The cost of living in small towns is lower than for main centres and cities, and belonging to clubs like golf and bowls is cheaper. People feel safer in small towns and, once they got to know people, more friendly.
"You can be lost in a big city. You can live in an area for years and never know your neighbours."
Feilding's promotions manager Helen Worboys says in the early 90s, Feilding decided to start its fightback. "We've since basically put a bomb under the town."
The town centre and streets were upgraded and a thriving cafe culture established. "We copped some flak from ratepayers who said nobody will sit out on a footpath from a cafe," Worboys says.
"Six to seven years ago you couldn't have a choice of cafe, or eat out in Feilding seven nights a week. That's changed now."
Worboys says the idea was that if Feilding showed people "we love the place" the private investment would follow. "We are now seeing a surge in commercial development. The minute a building comes on the market it's snapped up, often by out-of-towners, especially Aucklanders."
Worboys says after a period of decline, Feilding is showing a "slow but steady" population increase and hits on the promotion's website indicate it is on target.
Aucklanders are leaving for the provinces in droves.
Census figures show the Auckland region had a net loss of 16,662 residents between the 2001 and 2006 censuses. Most moved to Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Northland, Otago or Canterbury.
Net migration flows between 16 regional council areas show Auckland had the most losses (13). It recorded net gains from only two regions - Wellington (1884) and Manawatu-Wanganui (4. Canterbury gained the most resident New Zealanders (8103).
Auckland recorded the largest net outflow (13,848) of people aged from 25 to 64 between the 2001 and 2006 censuses. Bay of Plenty had the largest net inflow (6213) followed by Waikato (4059) and Northland (3546).
However Auckland had the largest population growth, at 12.4 per cent, due to immigration.
Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
I have both options.
All of my relatives live in rural area in southern Bavaria and some of them even have small farms and some forests (which are small and not much more than hobbies...).
My parants have their own house with a significant amount of garden.
I do live in a city and work in a city, because the job is well payed and the enregy that I consume is much less there than it would be in a rural area. It is easier to heat a flat in a large house with 5 floors than your big large home, I can (and do) walk to work, I can (and do) walk to the railroad station or to the local public transport, if I want something to eat I go out of my home and buy it next door. There is lots of very high quality food available here at low prices.
I have to work maybe 2 days (a' 8 hours) a month to pay for my food (1 day could be sufficient if I would buy mainly the cheap stuff)
Why should I grow my own food now?
I don't need much energy for heating (insulated building, I don't need it very warm to feel comfortable) and my electric bills are low (despite the high prices for energy here), because all of my electric stuff is highly energy efficient.
I do type that on a notebook that needs 20W with the light above me using another 20W and my DSL moden which needs around 7W...
There is the fridge/freezer running in the kitchen (needs about 0,5kWh a day) and that's it for the moment. Most people need far more just for their stand by stuff...
(I do need a quite significant amount of electricity for growing carnivorous plants inside under artificial light, but that's just a hobby, not needed for "survival". I could also grow lemons or kiwi or something else here, which would make some nice trading stuff in Germany in a peak oil doomer scenario ;-)
So how would I prepare for the future?
- I will try keep my job (I'm an engineer in the energy sector -"futureproof energy systems & energy efficiency"- mostly payed by the government, so chances are not so bad, that my skills will be needed in the future) and pay for my food and my energy.
If gasoline is 20 US$ a gallon and electricity is 50cent / kWh and food prices will be 5 times as high as they are today a still don't have to starve. I hope that I still can enjoy culture, medical support and everything else, that makes living in a city quite interesting.
- If everything fails, I can always move back to my relatives where I can cut wood or try to build electric tractors for the farmers or build biomass to liquid systems...
- I do not invest into farming, I plan to invest into producing energy. If there will be a peak oil doomer scanario (which I will doubt, at least for Germany, peak oil could hurt, but we will neither shoot ourselfes nor die from hunger), why try to grow food to survive, if you can sell energy instead?
The first 5kWp photovoltaik system is installed on the roof of my parents house and it is already producing income now and I'm quite sure that there will also be a high demand on electricity 20 years later.
Producing 6000kWh of electricity is a much easier job (you have to do next to nothing, just watch the counter to rotate) than producing 6000kWh of energy stored in wood or in food.
German agricultural sector produces 88% of our needs, incl. food for livestock (eat a bit less meat and it is more than 100%) and only takes about 1% of its prime energy consumption.
That can already be supplied by renewable energy sources like "bio diesel", if everything else fails.
Our electricity system is shifting to renewable sources quite fast (having started at a rathar low rate, becaue we don't have as much water energy as some of our neighbours) and the rest will be mainly coal (our own or imported) or natural gas (mostly from Russia).
So peak oil would hit mainly the automobil sector and those that need to drive long distances by car (can be easily avoided, if you just want) and it would propably hit the economy. There are more than 7 million Germans living (partly or entirely) on governmental support and if things get worse (=expensive), those people could get a problem...
Those that heat with large amounts of oil have to switch to other sources or better insulate the house sooner than later.
Peak oil will not be an energy crises here (and surely no food crises), peak gas could be a more significant problem, but as long as relationship to Russia is good that should be some years to go... Until then we could be prepared.
There is always coal as "plan B" (and keeping the nuclear plants as option C), but plan B that woild be desastrous to the climate and option C has little support in the public (myself included).
I hope that we learn fast enough, so that we won't need it.
Btw, living in a city takes (on average) much less space and energy than living on rural areas.
Germany could not support 80+ million people who try to live "independent" with basic structures, we need our cities to support 80+ million people at our current living standard.
I'm a bit amased about the "American way". It looks like consuming as fast as you can (even hording, that stuff has to be produced, too and will increase energy demand), building huge houses in suburbia, driving the biggest cars and on the other side preparing to farm with horses and to shoot the neighbours.
(exept very few other opinions)
Why not try to get as independend on oil, as it is possible now? You don't need to learn basic farming for that and fall back to the technology of the 19th century, just learn to live with less energy consumption (on the same living standard) and try to get the remaining energy from renewable sources.
You have one of the best starting points in the world.
A rich and highly industrialieced country, lots of skilled workers, huge area of farmable land per person and still lots of own resources, lots of solar radiation in the south you just have to stop throwing away that stuff.
If all the money that was and still is payed for Iraq war would have put into the production of energy efficient cars and houses and powerplants using renewable sources you would't have to worry a bit on oil prices and oil supply now...
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
Doly wrote:
Did the oil embargoes in the seventies cause problems to Germany? Yes? Then peak oil also will.
People did not starve or die from hunger and they did not shoot each other on the streets.
So it caused some problems, but it has been far, far away from doom.
Even when all the major cities have been bombed to ruins in 1945, many millions of the "young & working age" male have died during the war, and millions of refugees with nothing else than their clothes coming "home" hunger was a problem, but almost all people survived the hard times after the war.
If we would be cut of from oil now we would be in a much better situation (imho) with our cities, homes, public transport and industry being intact...
Sarajevo (Bosnia) was under siege for some years(!) and people have been hungry, but not many of them died from hunger during that time. Living during peak oil should be -much- easier than living under siege which means "peak everything" + snipers that could kill you if you move out of your home.
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
I think a renewable economy is possible even in parts of the US. Since we have gotten solar I am amazed at how easy it is. It delivers power and hot water every day and has been very low maintenance. It's the way. With LED's and small electric cars we could live a very nice life with a fraction of the energy we are using now. We're going to have to do it sooner or later, so why not?
I think that a lot of the doom we associate with peak oil comes from an unwillingness to imagine a more hopeful world. Heck, we are living it here and it works. We live a fine life on half the fossil fuel. What's the problem?
We're not just facing a lack of energy, but also a lack of imagination.
Joined: Nov 20, 2006 Posts: 123 Location: Tasmania
Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
Quote:
I think that a lot of the doom we associate with peak oil comes from an unwillingness to imagine a more hopeful world.
I think that's a pretty good point.
Among the people I know fairly far and wide, via forums (utterly unconnected with either peak oil or survivalism in any form) and direct face to face, the sense that we need to live a more sustainable life, and prepare for what most consider to be the inevitable cracking of our unsustainable lifestyle, is fairly widespread.
I live in a smallish city with a good natural water supply and surrounded by good agricultural land - in itself a good situation to be in. Most of the homes here have gardens - another favourable factor. Many, many people grow their own food. I live in an inner urban area - in my street I know of 4 people who are currently self sufficient in fruit and vegetables and herbs, myself included. It doesn't take much to get to that point. A backyard and a little bit of skill and you're away. I barter for eggs from someone around the corner in inner surburbia who keeps a flock of chickens. Within my community there are many many people who have the skills to garden enough to produce food for themselves and they can teach others. Inner surburbia self-sufficiency is possible.
I do not believe in the doom scenario (well, maybe for some American cities ). Everything may well start to crack, but for the place in which I live (an island surrounded by some fairly dangerous waters with a population under 400,000 and completely able to sustain itself), it will not crack apart. Not completely ... and after a while it will start to repair itself.
I also, as do my neighbours, garden organically - we do not use pesticides or fertilizers and we have huge bountiful crops. We dehydrate and can our produce.
I think a transition is possible. People here are already thinking and doing it (rather than talking endlessly about doom scenarios ), and it is widespread enough to give me a little, little bit of hope for the future.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1185 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:25 am Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
cephalotus wrote:
I have both options.
All of my relatives live in rural area in southern Bavaria and some of them even have small farms and some forests (which are small and not much more than hobbies...).
My parants have their own house with a significant amount of garden.
I do live in a city and work in a city, because the job is well payed and the enregy that I consume is much less there than it would be in a rural area. It is easier to heat a flat in a large house with 5 floors than your big large home, I can (and do) walk to work, I can (and do) walk to the railroad station or to the local public transport, if I want something to eat I go out of my home and buy it next door. There is lots of very high quality food available here at low prices.
I have to work maybe 2 days (a' 8 hours) a month to pay for my food (1 day could be sufficient if I would buy mainly the cheap stuff)
Why should I grow my own food now?
I don't need much energy for heating (insulated building, I don't need it very warm to feel comfortable) and my electric bills are low (despite the high prices for energy here), because all of my electric stuff is highly energy efficient.
I do type that on a notebook that needs 20W with the light above me using another 20W and my DSL moden which needs around 7W...
There is the fridge/freezer running in the kitchen (needs about 0,5kWh a day) and that's it for the moment. Most people need far more just for their stand by stuff...
(I do need a quite significant amount of electricity for growing carnivorous plants inside under artificial light, but that's just a hobby, not needed for "survival". I could also grow lemons or kiwi or something else here, which would make some nice trading stuff in Germany in a peak oil doomer scenario
So how would I prepare for the future?
- I will try keep my job (I'm an engineer in the energy sector -"futureproof energy systems & energy efficiency"- mostly payed by the government, so chances are not so bad, that my skills will be needed in the future) and pay for my food and my energy.
If gasoline is 20 US$ a gallon and electricity is 50cent / kWh and food prices will be 5 times as high as they are today a still don't have to starve. I hope that I still can enjoy culture, medical support and everything else, that makes living in a city quite interesting.
- If everything fails, I can always move back to my relatives where I can cut wood or try to build electric tractors for the farmers or build biomass to liquid systems...
- I do not invest into farming, I plan to invest into producing energy. If there will be a peak oil doomer scanario (which I will doubt, at least for Germany, peak oil could hurt, but we will neither shoot ourselfes nor die from hunger), why try to grow food to survive, if you can sell energy instead?
The first 5kWp photovoltaik system is installed on the roof of my parents house and it is already producing income now and I'm quite sure that there will also be a high demand on electricity 20 years later.
Producing 6000kWh of electricity is a much easier job (you have to do next to nothing, just watch the counter to rotate) than producing 6000kWh of energy stored in wood or in food.
German agricultural sector produces 88% of our needs, incl. food for livestock (eat a bit less meat and it is more than 100%) and only takes about 1% of its prime energy consumption.
That can already be supplied by renewable energy sources like "bio diesel", if everything else fails.
Our electricity system is shifting to renewable sources quite fast (having started at a rathar low rate, becaue we don't have as much water energy as some of our neighbours) and the rest will be mainly coal (our own or imported) or natural gas (mostly from Russia).
So peak oil would hit mainly the automobil sector and those that need to drive long distances by car (can be easily avoided, if you just want) and it would propably hit the economy. There are more than 7 million Germans living (partly or entirely) on governmental support and if things get worse (=expensive), those people could get a problem...
Those that heat with large amounts of oil have to switch to other sources or better insulate the house sooner than later.
Peak oil will not be an energy crises here (and surely no food crises), peak gas could be a more significant problem, but as long as relationship to Russia is good that should be some years to go... Until then we could be prepared.
There is always coal as "plan B" (and keeping the nuclear plants as option C), but plan B that woild be desastrous to the climate and option C has little support in the public (myself included).
I hope that we learn fast enough, so that we won't need it.
Btw, living in a city takes (on average) much less space and energy than living on rural areas.
Germany could not support 80+ million people who try to live "independent" with basic structures, we need our cities to support 80+ million people at our current living standard.
I'm a bit amased about the "American way". It looks like consuming as fast as you can (even hording, that stuff has to be produced, too and will increase energy demand), building huge houses in suburbia, driving the biggest cars and on the other side preparing to farm with horses and to shoot the neighbours.
(exept very few other opinions)
Why not try to get as independend on oil, as it is possible now? You don't need to learn basic farming for that and fall back to the technology of the 19th century, just learn to live with less energy consumption (on the same living standard) and try to get the remaining energy from renewable sources.
You have one of the best starting points in the world.
A rich and highly industrialieced country, lots of skilled workers, huge area of farmable land per person and still lots of own resources, lots of solar radiation in the south you just have to stop throwing away that stuff.
If all the money that was and still is payed for Iraq war would have put into the production of energy efficient cars and houses and powerplants using renewable sources you would't have to worry a bit on oil prices and oil supply now...
best regards
Thanks for the informed, well written and positive post. Many of us, me included, need a kick in the butt like this from time to time. Us doomers have plenty of imagination, most of it dark.
Question: What is the brand and size of your fridge?
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: Dead civilization walking
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Urban vs. Rural
Based on input from close family members whom I've converted to doomers and will be coming with me, I've refined my personal search criteria to the following:
well watered, fertile, productive acreage, in or adjacent to a river valley, within a dozen or so km/mi of a railroad depot, away from major military installations and absolutely unsustainable large cities (like LA) and preferably within an hour's bike ride of a medium sized agricultural hub or college town (like Davis, CA or Madison, WI). A 15 mile bike ride isn't a particularly big deal for me.
Soooo, it's not really way out in the boonies for me but neither is it in town. Perhaps it'd best be described as "a few miles beyond the edge of town".
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. Canterbury gained the most resident New Zealanders (8103).
). Everything may well start to crack, but for the place in which I live (an island surrounded by some fairly dangerous waters with a population under 400,000 and completely able to sustain itself), it will not crack apart. Not completely ... and after a while it will start to repair itself.
and will be coming with me, I've refined my personal search criteria to the following: