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RedStateGreen
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 16, 2007
Posts: 1350
Location: Oklahoma City, USA
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 Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:06 pm Post subject: I think I can do this ... |
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Anyone else feel that way?
I'm not sure how things are going to turn out (I'm hoping for a soft crash but planning for a hard one) and I don't have my plan set in stone, but I feel more settled than any time since I learned about peak oil in June.
Now tomorrow I might be a nervous wreck again, but right now I'm doing okay. 
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Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin |
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albente
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 20, 2004
Posts: 1356
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| Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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Do what? Deal with the near future? Yeah, we all can do it since we 'HAVE TO'. The term 'birth right' in this context seems more like 'birth slavery'. At least there are widely available pharmaceuticals for the interim.
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Bas
Moderator
Joined: Mar 26, 2005
Posts: 3787
Location: over here
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| Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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yes, we'll all have to. Either way, remember that chance favors the prepared mind
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"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
- Abraham Lincoln |
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Ayame
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jun 29, 2006
Posts: 557
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:49 am Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| RedStateGreen wrote: | | I'm not sure how things are going to turn out (I'm hoping for a soft crash but planning for a hard one) |
Have you not read the Oildrum report?
Its a gentle depletion rate of 1% until mid 2009 when it suddently jumps up to 4% and since our systems can't deal with such a resource contraction shock we collectively fall off the Olduvai Cliff.
Your welcome. |
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lionstone
Tar Sands
Joined: Oct 17, 2007
Posts: 34
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:57 am Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| ayame, Do you have a link to that report? |
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Ayame
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jun 29, 2006
Posts: 557
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| lionstone wrote: | | ayame, Do you have a link to that report? |
here you go
It's at point 2:
| Quote: | | Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012. |
Actually now that I reread it, I really fear what is going to happen after 2012, precipice? |
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wisconsin_cur
Moderator
Joined: May 10, 2007
Posts: 2996
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| Ayame wrote: | | lionstone wrote: | | ayame, Do you have a link to that report? |
here you go
It's at point 2:
| Quote: | | Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012. |
Actually now that I reread it, I really fear what is going to happen after 2012, precipice? |
I keep a copy of that graph as my computer wallpaper as a way to focus my mind whenever I am tempted to distraction. I am spending my fall vacation clearing land for an orchard, building a solar powered electric fence and a few other prepatory chores. I would really like 4-5 years of relative normalicy... I could get a lot done.
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Nature is complete because it does not serve itself.
The sage places himself after and finds himself before,
Ignores his desire and finds himself content.
He is complete because he does not serve himself. -Lao Tze |
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lionstone
Tar Sands
Joined: Oct 17, 2007
Posts: 34
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6412
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Praise HawkMan |
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 12577
Location: zombie horde wonderland
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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I generally feel fairly capable until my body gives out like it's been doing lately (back problems), then I really worry about getting the things done that I would like to do in the short term. Long term, I can't say, I'm not really able to project out that far, and I have to admit, as I have done before here, that I avoid "doomeristic" contemplation because I think it's bad for my health. I can make plans in advance, but as far as figuring out what's going to happen in the larger picture, I'm not good at that. Which is why I read po.com to see what other people think....
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davep
Expert
Joined: Jun 21, 2006
Posts: 1254
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| Ludi wrote: | | I generally feel fairly capable until my body gives out like it's been doing lately (back problems)... |
Funny you should mention that. I've just read the Biointensive book you recommended. It's very big on double digging. Surely there's another way of doing this. I heard there are plough-like implements that go deeply and aerate the soil without disturbing the soil structure, but I can't for the life of me remember what they're called. On the sort of scale I'm looking at, I think double-digging would just become a means of lowering my funeral costs 
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All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha |
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 12577
Location: zombie horde wonderland
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:18 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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I don't double-dig, I'm too lazy! I use a broad fork. The implement youre thinking of is called a subsoiler or chisel plough.
This back pain is from moving material which got piled up in the floods of TS Erin, and from digging footing holes for a new porch. 
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davep
Expert
Joined: Jun 21, 2006
Posts: 1254
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| Ludi wrote: | I don't double-dig, I'm too lazy! I use a broad fork. The implement youre thinking of is called a subsoiler or chisel plough.
This back pain is from moving material which got piled up in the floods of TS Erin, and from digging footing holes for a new porch. |
Thanks Ludi. They're called decompacteurs here in France. I think I'm going to have to get one.
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All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha |
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BobWallace
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 01, 2007
Posts: 187
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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| Ayame wrote: | | RedStateGreen wrote: | | I'm not sure how things are going to turn out (I'm hoping for a soft crash but planning for a hard one) |
Have you not read the Oildrum report?
Its a gentle depletion rate of 1% until mid 2009 when it suddently jumps up to 4% and since our systems can't deal with such a resource contraction shock we collectively fall off the Olduvai Cliff.
Your welcome. |
We can't deal with a 4% contraction?
That's just silly beyond silly.
First, little of our electricity comes from oil.
Second, we can conserve way, way, way more than 4% with a bit of car pooling and walking that block to the minimart.
Get a grip. |
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dunewalker
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 30, 2005
Posts: 731
Location: northern California
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| Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: I think I can do this ... |
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Bob Wallace says: "...that's just silly beyond silly...get a grip..."
Do you have a source for your "facts", Bob? Have you considered the process of exponential function, whereas an annual 4% decline of production would be followed by an additional 4% reduction the following year? etc. Have you considered that not only does a reduction in available energy entail some minor inconvenience to our personal transportation, but that there is a significant and continuing reduction of available energy throughout the economic infrastructure? |
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