The "We Ain't Dead Yet" Thread. With a Side of Gu

BobWallace · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 01, 2007 Posts: 187

{thread split from Housing Boom Officially Over - Collapse Imminent thread by emersonbiggins}

1. Wind. We're bringing wind on line with the grid at an even increasing rate. New wind is less expensive than new nuclear and new coal (given carbon costs are included).

2. Solar. Rates are dropping fast. Thin film solar is shipping at under $1.50 per watt wholesale. It should be closer to $1 per watt in the next few months. We've got two proven techniques for producing 40% efficient PV. We're building more solar thermal at the moment.

3. Wave. There are up and running wave production generators. This is not high tech stuff, just ordinary stuff that we know how to build.

Solar and wind are doubling capacity about every eighteen months. No reason why that rate can't be jacked up a lot higher. And it will as oil prices increase making green energy relatively cheaper.

We won't do "business as usual". We will have to change some things. More efficient light bulbs, appliances, cars, air conditioners, etc.

And we'll force some people out of their cars and onto public transportation or homes closer to where they work.

We'll find more efficient ways to make what we want to make. Businesses totally understand that energy is costing more money and will cost even more money in the future. Just look at the large corporations that are doing their own PV farms.

We'll probably eat 'closer to home'. Less Chilean grapes in January and more local apples and rutabagas.

Life will change. Life might get a little more difficult for a while. But my bet is that life will be much better a couple of decades from now.

Think what the environment would be like without dirty coal.

Think what the environment would be like without pollution spewing cars and with more reasonably sized, clean getting-around machines. (Just take the engine noise out of our cities. What a nice thing that would be.)

At the same time our computers will continue to improve, get more powerful, faster, smaller, and cheaper.

Our ability to fight disease will continue to improve. And here in the US we might actually get universal health care.

The quality of our food will probably continue to improve as it has been recently. More organic, more locally grown so that it's fresher and picked ripe.

And maybe we'll find a cure for unreasonable pessimism.... ;o

emersonbiggins

I split this thread from the housing thread because I think you bring up a couple salient possibilities regarding Peak Oil that haven't been discussed in a few weeks in any comprehensive thread on this site. Normally, use of the search function would more than dispel much of the hope displayed above, but I thought a new topic might help attract some thoughts from the newer members around here who might agree and/or disagree with the above worldview.

Have at it! Twisted Evil

_________________
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 571

MD

Another good thread to beat my ERoEI drum:

Alternatives are great, and will grow. If you are young and looking for a career, alternative energy will likely keep you attached to the economy for your entire life.

-----------------------------

The problem is:

The energy required to develop alternative-energy infrastructure combined with:

The global energy loads required to offset GW effects plus:

Cheap oil depletion means that:

Growth will be inhibited.

-----------------------------

In "normal" circumstances, new markets (alternatives)would emerge to offset old markets (sweet light crude) at an accelerating rate. That won't happen this time due to "energy starvation".
_________________
"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein

md@peakoil.com

peripato · Heavy Crude Joined: May 03, 2005 Posts: 386

You forgot Mr. Fusion.

pstarr

I hope to see a gradual conversion to a steady-state solar transport and economy. The first practical step might improve city subways and light rail and then intercity rail lines to carry electric passenger and freight trains powered with additional nuclear and then all solar. Occasional bullet trains lines would replace medium distance planes routes. Intra-urban light rail carries freight and passengers down medium strips past suburban malls. (see Alan Drake's rail plan on the OilDrum)

The next stage has municipalities play an active role to install trollys and trains into regional system to carry people and freight to and from healthy rural towns into vibrant productive cities. This would probably require cooperation of larger government entities and occasional exercise of eminent domain to cut trains lines through poorly designed suburban sprawl zones

At this point regional immigration will bring people closer to industrial and agriculture production. Reduced petroleum organic systems demand more physical labor and nutrient cycling but still depend on mass railroad transit points. Same with manufacturing which will depend more on recycling for feedstocks. I'd see dispersed exurban and vacation neighborhoods partially serviced by electric buses and GPS and computer-routed electric jitney services and also somewhat depopulated as inconvenience replaces luxury.

I believe our hard-wiring for optimism (to procreate and pass on our genes) is naturally balanced by the propensity to worry and avoid danger. Optimism does not exclude pessimism and thus I have absolutely no faith any of this will be implemented. It wasn't 30 years ago when it should have been and it isn't now that we are at peak. And it certainly won't be post peak as we look to blame and avoid responsibility.
_________________
director

ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap wav

Narz

It's a nice vision Bob and I hope most of it comes true, though I do think a little physical (not emotional or neurotic, most people seem have enough of that kind of suffering) hardship would be good for people, force them to focus.

For the record : I think this is a poor choice of thread title but I guess that's up to Bob if he wants to change it (user's can edit own thread title's right?).
_________________
My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).

lateStarter

This is exactly my beef/point:

Mkwin wrote:

Ludi

latestarter, I think a lot of people don't understand that is what makes many of us "doomers" or at least somewhat doomeristic - there's plenty of things we could do, what is significant is what we are doing, which isn't much....

I'll believe in it when I see it.
_________________
"...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 2971 Location: UK

Same here. Hope springs eternal. There is so much potential. We know this, because it is the same potential identified in the 1970s.

No, I look around me at this built-up over-populated island of ours and ask, are we becoming more or less dependent on uninterrupted availability of high-grade energy and abstracted economic activity? The answer is more, not less. Every year I have been aware of peak oil, I have watched us lose ground and done more for myself.

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 571

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 571

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 571

jbeckton · Expert Joined: Jan 05, 2007 Posts: 1914

I never understand why people continue to ask why we didn't implement changes 30 years ago. There was no need to do it then, the money wasn't there.

People are now starting to feel the pain of in the form of skyrocketing energy bills. The Hummers are rusting on the lot while the compact cars are selling like never before even though every 3rd commercial on TY is for the hummer. I don't think I have seen a single commercial for the Civic Hybrid, but it's selling.

People are starting to associate "green" with higher efficiency and less expensive, rather than hippy BS as they used to just a few years ago. People are ready to start making the change now because they want to protect their bank account, the best motivator.

Not everyone cares about the environment or foreign dependency, but nearly everyone cares about their bank account. I see HE washers and dryers taking over the market, lots of interest in tankless water heaters, and HE light bulbs becoming the norm.

If you look around you will see that a change is coming, you cannot deny it-only say that it's too little too late.

If you say it's too late, I ask how do you know?

Where has anyone proven what the down slope of PO will look like?

Who will be the last to afford oil?

If I lived in a budding economy I would be worried because they will feel the brunt of PO much more so than we. Fortunately they are not far removed from a life w/o oil so they will be able to handle it much better than we could.

Not a justification, there is none, but a fact.

brobak · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 103