Joined: Nov 24, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 1:38 am Post subject: Who will crash the hardest?
There seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:
- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.
Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.
While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.
Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:47 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
What is the current population of Norway? I’ve read it’s one that has stabilized, no growth (a major undiscussed problem for America).
What is your governments plan to deal with the end of its reserves? Does Norway have nuclear plants or planning for them?
What was the economy in Norway like in the 19th Century before the age of oil? _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 4:43 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
The new powerhouse economies will be those that have oil. Even after it peaks ... countries like Norway, Russia and many middle eastern countries will still have enough for domestic use.
In fact we are now seeing a number of middle eastern countries reducing oil exports because of rises in domestic consumption.
As for who will crash hardest ... just about everyone else.
The USA's powerful economy will be able to endure skyrocketing oil prices a little longer then the rest of the world. Where as poorer nations will simply be priced out of the oil market.
This may give the US some breathing time as it continues to consume its, and other peoples oil well into the foreseeable future.
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 4:47 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
kokoda wrote:
The new powerhouse economies will be those that have oil. Even after it peaks ... countries like Norway, Russia and many middle eastern countries will still have enough for domestic use.
In fact we are now seeing a number of middle eastern countries reducing oil exports because of rises in domestic consumption.
As for who will crash hardest ... just about everyone else.
The USA's powerful economy will be able to endure skyrocketing oil prices a little longer then the rest of the world. Where as poorer nations will simply be priced out of the oil market.
This may give the US some breathing time as it continues to consume its, and other peoples oil well into the foreseeable future.
Given that the US has the furthest to fall (in terms of oil consumption) and that their suburban infrastructure is so unsustainable, I guess that they will probably crash the hardest. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:29 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
davep wrote:
Given that the US has the furthest to fall (in terms of oil consumption) and that their suburban infrastructure is so unsustainable, I guess that they will probably crash the hardest.
The US population is also the most removed from labor intensive lifestyle and has been immersed in feel good thirty minute TV fixes for the past fifty years.
Large segments of our population lack the strength or maturity to cope with crisis.
I'm don't believe we could muster a WW11 type resolve again, as a nation.
We've become pitiful. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Joined: Nov 24, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
SILENTTODD wrote:
What is the current population of Norway? I’ve read it’s one that has stabilized, no growth (a major undiscussed problem for America).
It's not so high, but it's highly urbanised and very few work with agriculture.
SILENTTODD wrote:
What is your governments plan to deal with the end of its reserves? Does Norway have nuclear plants or planning for them?
As far as I know we are for the time being living the thorium-dream.
SILENTTODD wrote:
What was the economy in Norway like in the 19th Century before the age of oil?
Norway was very poor.
My point is guys: That the exporters will be rich for now. The opportunity of change is very good for them. But with the current systems in order, will that happen? While they will suddenly be plunging out into buying energy from perhaps a $500 per barrel market.
Enough oil for domestic use means being a net exporter or running in zero in total. There comes a point for everyone when that happens. Barring reduced consumption and change of energy usage up front of the point where the import/export balance shifts, the economy will be caught off guard and be plunged straight into extreme poverty.
If we don't inflation adjust:
A net importer today who needs oil and has $10.000.000 can get more than 100.000 barrels.
A net importer in the future who needs oil and has $10.000.000 can get only 20.000 barrels.
One barrel will contain just as much energy at that time, but be much more expensive. Because of this, the crash will be harder.
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:13 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Segmentation is the future. It’s easy for me to see “green zones” popping up all over the US. Certainly one exercise that Blackwater and other for hire mercenaries are training for in Iraq is protection of said green zones. The rich will congregate and be protected by private armies. The rest of us will do the best we can with ever more scarce resources. Eventually, as even the rich begin to suffer, conflict between green zones will take on a warlord and serfdom nature.
Just one possible future, but one I see as more likely each day. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:35 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
If it weren't for climate change, I'd peg my own State of Michigan, in the US for the place that will crash the hardest; specifically Detroit and its suburbs. Consider the problems here:
- We're part of the US.
- Our main industry is producing gas guzzling cars and trucks.
- Said main industry is already having financial problems.
- We have among the country's worst sprawl problems.
- We have lousy race relations.
- We have a high poverty rate.
- We have no public transportation to speak of.
- The transportation authorities are continuing to expand road capacity and not considering public transportation.
- Wages have been falling already from globalization.
- The State government is struggling with solvency.
- We have a high percentage of subprime loans and ARMs.
- We are in the top four for foreclosures.
- We have the usual drug, gang, and crime problems.
- We are a fairly heavily armed state.
- Solar sucks in Michigan - we're overcast 3/4 of the time in Winter.
On the plus side:
- We have the best supply of fresh water of any location on Earth.
- We have lots of coastline, with very little severe storm risk.
- We only have rare, very mild earthquakes.
- We have fairly good farmland.
- We still have some manufacturing capacity.
- Trees grow like weeds here.
- Some parts of the state have excellent wind resources.
I expect this region to have among the worst short-term prognoses, but among the best long-term.
Joined: Jan 24, 2007 Posts: 189 Location: Pacific NW USA
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:38 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
TorrKing wrote:
There seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:
- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.
Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.
While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.
Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.
What do you guys think?
I think it depends on how you define "crash". Life as we know it will be over for all of us eventually, importers and exporters. Why on earth would Norway want to go out and purchase $500 oil to support an unsustainable model? With even a marginally competent leadership, I would think Norway would use it's own oil/gas reserves to soften the transition to nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, tidal, biomass, etc. Not that it won't be a painful process, but you are way better positioned than the importers.
Joined: Nov 24, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: The ever shrinking wilds of Norway
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:14 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
NWMossBack wrote:
TorrKing wrote:
There seems to be a consensus that the net-exporters of oil, will be able to handle the crash better than the net-importers. I beg to differ. If I use my own country (Norway) as an example:
- We have a huge fund, much of it tied in foreign economies. In other words it will practically nullify when the economies go bust. This is what we are supposed to rely on after we become importers. Many exporters don't even have this.
- We are possibly net importers in 2015, calculated from the decline and consumption trends.
Right now the oil is so cheap that an economy crashing can adjust to a degree, while in 2015 it will be so scarce and expensive that this train definitely has passed.
While I think our outright crash will be postponed, we will also live in fairytale land for a longer time. So when we become net importers (from where?) our economy will crash quickly since we will fall pretty much straight from the top to the bottom.
Of course, it will not fall right from the top of wealth, because of trading partners becoming poorer will affect our economy first. But comparatively (to the US for instance), it will not be so bad.
What do you guys think?
I think it depends on how you define "crash". Life as we know it will be over for all of us eventually, importers and exporters. Why on earth would Norway want to go out and purchase $500 oil to support an unsustainable model? With even a marginally competent leadership, I would think Norway would use it's own oil/gas reserves to soften the transition to nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, tidal, biomass, etc. Not that it won't be a painful process, but you are way better positioned than the importers.
Well, would we have any choice? If we didn't buy oil, it would be too late to do anything assuming nothing had been done from before. And it sure doesn't look like anything is being done to me. _________________ http://livingprimitively.com/
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:38 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
During a time of scarcity, the poor will do worse than the rich and the poor countries will do worse than the wealthy countries. This is how it always works, and not just in human societies.
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
KingM wrote:
During a time of scarcity, the poor will do worse than the rich and the poor countries will do worse than the wealthy countries. This is how it always works, and not just in human societies.
I'm not so sure. Countries where they already live a poor subsistence lifestyle will surely be less affected by a lack of oil, as they use so little in the first place. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Joined: Jan 24, 2007 Posts: 189 Location: Pacific NW USA
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
TorrKing wrote:
Well, would we have any choice? If we didn't buy oil, it would be too late to do anything assuming nothing had been done from before. And it sure doesn't look like anything is being done to me.
Time is short, I guess you have some work to do!
It seems logical that as world oil supply declines, producing countries like Norway must force themselves to reduce internal consumption to maintain some export, since prices will be very high. The economic and social costs of reduced energy use will be very high also, but the alternative is suicide.
I'm afraid I don't know much about actual situation in Norway, but I think there was another Norwegian who used to post here who went on and on about how much Norway was doing. Maybe he was Finish or Swedish.
I think I would still rather be in your shoes though. The US seems bent on securing energy resources by force of arms rather than making hard choices now for a sustainable future. In the short term it might work, but must ultimately fail.
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
It will be a drag everywhere, but I think that places where people were used to a high energy lifestyle will be particularly bad. Here in the US we'll take it hard when we end up walking. Now's the time to get a place in a walkable community.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Look, in a true disaster, the US/France/UK/Japan/etc. first have to slip to the level of Taiwan, then to Mexico, then to Morocco, then to Kenya, then to Haiti, then to the Congo.
By the time the US looks like Mexico, Mexico will look like Kenya or Morocco. By the time the US looks like Haiti, the Haitians will be extinct.
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