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thief
Coal
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
Posts: 8
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 Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:34 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| As for Norway, one question is whether they will be allowed by other nations to keep their oil for themselves when others get ever poorer, especially since their oil is easy to lay hands on out at sea. |
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timbo
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 13, 2006
Posts: 161
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:52 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| TreebeardsUncle wrote: | | ...The US will do fine for awhile as it has plenty of coal. |
Actually I suspect even the US is going to have problems but more likely to be water than oil in the immediate future. |
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xarkz
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 20, 2006
Posts: 126
Location: Iceland
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| Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:47 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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China. They seems to be sacrificing everything they can do build their US-style utopia. When the citizens realize they just missed it and they have to go back to basics, now in a wasted environment, many might get angry imo  |
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thief
Coal
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:41 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| timbo wrote: | | TreebeardsUncle wrote: | | ...The US will do fine for awhile as it has plenty of coal. |
Actually I suspect even the US is going to have problems but more likely to be water than oil in the immediate future. |
The US and Europe use and waste such a great surplus of every imaginable resource that their population could probably survive on 5% of it so long as the system stays intact.
Imagine how much stuff you have at home, at work etc. that you could do without and then compare it to the simple potato- or corn-based food and water which are the things that you really need (and eventually a bit of heating, but you would probably do fine with extra clothing).
Point is it will take a while before the Westerners have stripped away all the luxury and waste from their lives. Meanwhile people in Africa have little to cut down upon. |
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timbo
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 13, 2006
Posts: 161
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| thief wrote: | | ...Point is it will take a while before the Westerners have stripped away all the luxury and waste from their lives. Meanwhile people in Africa have little to cut down upon. |
True but that assumes an orderly descent. I fully expect the US to embroil itself in a civil unrest/disorder/war once the luxury starts to be stripped away. And there is nothing like a war when it comes to the destruction of infrastructure.
Also there are disturbing climate change related trends that suggest both the US and Australia are likely to become net importers of food. But from whom. Hungry people are unhappy people. |
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evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Dec 06, 2005
Posts: 833
Location: Stopped at the border.
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| Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:24 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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I think the West will look a bit like Cuba after the embargo with a great amount of innovation keeping things going. People in the West will find ways of conserving at first, like retrofit insulation. When necessary they will embrace home centered supplements like rooftop solar and wind or deep wells to circulate warm groundwater into their houses. Americans will think it is the end of the world when the price of a happy meal reaches $7.50. Africans will spend the better part of a week gathering the same amount of calories.
The biggest war danger, I think, will present itself along with the shakeup in suppliers. If a country, such as Russia, sees the opportunity to gain political control of various producing countries without anyone stopping them they will. I think this is where the biggest danger for nuclear war will be going forward.
My guess is that in a hundred years a young man will be able to go to the hardware store and buy a gallon of gasoline, probably being sold as some kind of paint spirit. That young man will have received a history from his elders of hard times when the economies of the world collapsed and several nations that he now knows to be weak and small suffered the calamities that made them that way. Most of those nations that fall and stay fallen will probably turn out to be the ones that should have plainly been able to see what was happening to them but couldn't or wouldn't see it. The names of many poor leaders will go down in history as bywords.
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"Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure." |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3353
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:24 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| BobWallace wrote: | | timbo wrote: | There will be war. War at all levels until the world population hits around 1.5 to 2 billion, i.e. the overshoot gets resolved.
Desperate people fight wars, always. |
Someone forgot to take their pills.....................  |
Actually you are wrong. He DID take the pill......the RED PILL! 
Putting that aside I guess I'm going to become unpopular amongst some folks (wouldn't be the first time)....that believe having lots of oil gives you a big cushion to avoid the shock.
TOTALLY disagree. There are countless examples of nations that are
1) resource rich but dirt poor due to bad management.
and the opposite
2) resource poor but are wealthy due to good management.
Whatever nation that best "manages" the situation will do best - NOT whoever has the largest patch of oil.
I think the best nations to "transition" into a post PO world economy will be nations that have paid off their debts. Cheap credit will be the first casualty of PO. If you have an economy that is ridiculously dependent on debt to stay afloat then you'll be going down HARD. I think we know what country that is right?  |
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BobWallace
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 01, 2007
Posts: 187
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| timbo wrote: | | thief wrote: | | ...Point is it will take a while before the Westerners have stripped away all the luxury and waste from their lives. Meanwhile people in Africa have little to cut down upon. |
True but that assumes an orderly descent. I fully expect the US to embroil itself in a civil unrest/disorder/war once the luxury starts to be stripped away. And there is nothing like a war when it comes to the destruction of infrastructure.
Also there are disturbing climate change related trends that suggest both the US and Australia are likely to become net importers of food. But from whom. Hungry people are unhappy people. |
Find us some examples of that happening in history. That violent destruction of infrastructure stuff.
Find more striking examples than how it didn't happen when "luxury" was stripped away during the Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis, .... |
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
Posts: 3353
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| BobWallace wrote: | ...
Find us some examples of that happening in history. That violent destruction of infrastructure stuff.
... |
*smacks forhead and shakes head in disbelief*
You do NOT need to go back into history for examples it's happening RIGHT NOW.
There are people in the 3rd world who are literally stealing manhole sewage covers and breaking down pipes and electrical towers for the scrap metal.
When the US invaded Iraq and Saddam's "security" stranglehold went belly up the first thing the Iraqi people did was loot their own country's infrastructure. |
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timbo
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 13, 2006
Posts: 161
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| BobWallace wrote: | ...Find us some examples of that happening in history. That violent destruction of infrastructure stuff.
Find more striking examples than how it didn't happen when "luxury" was stripped away during the Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis |
Having stated I'm a student of history its a reasonable question. In the "positive" examples cited the pain was fairly evenly spread and the population was to some degree used to adversity having recently gone through World War 1, the Great Depression and to a lesser extent Vietnam.
I'm assuming that the pain within the US will be unevenly distributed and given peak oil as well as climate change more drastic leading to a civil war.
As for the destruction bit you only need go back to the 1860's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman's_March_to_the_Sea |
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Twilight
Expert
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 2971
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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Collapse of the Soviet Union, anyone?
I completely agree with what cube wrote above, anyway. The impacts of PO will be as bad as each country's management. Some may do great, maybe even better than today. Others, you may get the option of donating money in response to a TV appeal. And you're not going to be able to predict yet where your country will stand. |
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MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5216
Location: Eurasia
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:31 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| Twilight wrote: | Collapse of the Soviet Union, anyone?
I completely agree with what cube wrote above, anyway. The impacts of PO will be as bad as each country's management. Some may do great, maybe even better than today. Others, you may get the option of donating money in response to a TV appeal. And you're not going to be able to predict yet where your country will stand. |
I agree with Cube as well. I fear our collective response to post peak oil resource depletion more than I fear our technical ability to deal with its consequences. As Cube mentions when expensive, critical infrastructure is looted by criminal mobs for the price of scrap metal. That is not only expensive or ultimately futile to replace, but in a resource starved environment perhaps not even possible.
Again the developing world today, like sub-Sahara Africa, as well as the collapse of the Soviet Union provide ample enough examples of this type of behavior on a wide spread basis. Especially if you have lived, worked or studied in these countries and you see it happening first hand. That is what is happening now or in the recent past. There is no reason to go back into History to probe what might happen.
The times have changed and so has the technology. For example, Africans know where the EU is and roughly how to get there. All they need is a leaky boat and the promise of a new, better life. That was not the case in 1492. We can learn from History, but the first thing we have to learn is that each time it is different! ; - )
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The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense. |
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manu
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 707
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:55 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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| Whoever is using the most oil will crash the hardest. Because after the resource wars there won't be much left. Whoever is losing in the war will think, if I can't have it no one else will either. After the dust settles, people that are left will just be trying to survive. People will be forced to live simple for a long time. So you might as well start now. Simple living and high thinking. |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1655
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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The net-exporters of oil are the most likely to be invaded in a post-PO world...
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anagami.net |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2676
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest? |
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Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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