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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:00 pm 
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Novus wrote:
The plateau started in 2004. The price of oil has more than doubled since then and now at the end of 2007 production numbers are pretty much the same. That is by definition Peak Oil. History has already been written and it says in no uncertain terms: Market forces are defeated, Peak Oil is real, it is here, it is NOW. In all honesty I don't think we have 5 to 10 years. In three years or less for all practical purposes the world we are living in now will have ended.


Words that bear repeating.

Take a look at the numbers. We are making record highs on oil prices. Food prices are up. And this is merely the prelude to the feast of consequences.

I think Thanksgiving of 2010 is likely to be quite a lot different than the upcoming holiday. A difference noticeable to even the most devout cornucopian. 8)

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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:09 pm 
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More from Mr. al-Husseini and friends:

World oil output struggling, say Arab experts

Quote:
Leading figures from the Middle East oil industry added their voices on Tuesday to those warning that the world is struggling to sustain rising oil production.

"There is a real problem -- that supply may not be possible to increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels," Libya's National Oil Corporation chairman Shokri Ghanem said at an industry conference.

"The reason is, in some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the Sixties or the Fifties."

Sadad al-Husseini was a key architect of Saudi Arabian energy production policy for more than a decade whilst a top official at state oil firm Saudi Aramco. He was even more pessimistic, saying world oil production had already plateaued.

"We are already three years into level production," Husseini also told the annual Oil & Money conference, a gathering of top executives.

_________________
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:25 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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Now that's something, starting to get some real feedback from people "in the know" so to speak. I think we're really on to something here, this peak oil thing :wink:

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After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:30 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Posts: 379
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jbeckton wrote:
Eli wrote:
If I am Saudi Royal I might think it is important to keep gas prices low so I can stay in power rather than ship off all my oil.


Apply your logic to the history of OPEC. If they stop exporting, they will risk attacks. They have lived in extravagant palaces for decades while the people have suffered. Now the money is even better!

They will sell every last drop while the money is there.


Besides, if the Saudis completely stopped exporting their oil, where would they get their food & other necessities from? It's not like they were self-sufficient or had that many other export items (when we're rolling down the oil decline slope and international trade has devolved to bartering between countries).

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"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
"A fundamental, devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desires." -Pentti Linkola


Last edited by Fredrik on Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:37 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Posts: 429
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Quote:
WWIV already? Yes, the White House is preparing us for an invasion of Iran. That case has been made by many neocons, most recently by Norman Podhoretz in his new book, "World War IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism." And as Pat Buchanan reacted on MSNBC's "Hardball" about all their warning signals: "I don't see how [the White House] can avoid attacking Iran and retaining their credibility going out of office."


Iran situation scares us.

I enjoyed, and agree, with comments about the normal distribution.

Thanks.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:44 pm 
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Leanan wrote:
Quote:
Sadad al-Huseini says that global ...will rise by $12 annually for the next 4 to 5 years as new fields become increasingly costly to exploit.


What I found interesting about this is that he says "10 to 15 years left" but goes on to talk about the price increase... that still puts the price per barrel at $150 by 2013... more than 66% higher just 5 years from now...? Ouch.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:46 pm 
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aflurry wrote:
edit: maybe i should rephrase my first paragraph as a question so as not to sound like a dumbass. what i mean is, why do we relate the oil production graph to a normal distribution curve, and is this valid? because it SEEMS to me that the resemblance is only superficial and coincidental and that plotting a linear production rate through time is just a completely different thing than plotting relative statistical frequency. so, if it is only a superficial resemblance, how can predictions based on the normal distribution curve carry any weight at all?


You see this in other fields as well such as signal processing, where one can, but need not, work with Gaussian windowing functions for, say, the Gabor transform. It has nothing to do with statistics really in the form of some random variable being described. It just so happens that the the standard deviation of a Gaussian "distribution" curve can be found through the second derivative. I guess there will be some dark connection between all of this, but anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:24 pm 
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thor wrote:
aflurry wrote:
edit: maybe i should rephrase my first paragraph as a question so as not to sound like a dumbass. what i mean is, why do we relate the oil production graph to a normal distribution curve, and is this valid? because it SEEMS to me that the resemblance is only superficial and coincidental and that plotting a linear production rate through time is just a completely different thing than plotting relative statistical frequency. so, if it is only a superficial resemblance, how can predictions based on the normal distribution curve carry any weight at all?


You see this in other fields as well such as signal processing, where one can, but need not, work with Gaussian windowing functions for, say, the Gabor transform. It has nothing to do with statistics really in the form of some random variable being described. It just so happens that the the standard deviation of a Gaussian "distribution" curve can be found through the second derivative. I guess there will be some dark connection between all of this, but anyway.


if by "dark connection" you mean that the curve could be predictive even though the connection is what i have been calling "coincidental." i'll buy it, at least until i hear a good argument against it.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:55 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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I also much prefer Airline Pilots previous avatar.

This one to me is Babel on Peak Oil, cheap trashy Fox News style. *shrug*

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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 4:00 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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billp wrote:
If the normal distribution model for oil production is correct, then production slope deceleration is maximum at peak. This argues for rapid decline in production, rather than a plateau, from the peak.

But there are lots of things which could change what happens.

Like an attack on Iran.



You are confusing production deceleration with production rate.
Code:
Let p be production per day  (ie barrels per day)

                         dp
production rate       =  --
                         dt

                            d^2 p
production acceleration =  -------
                            dt^2


At peak, the production acceleration is at it's most negative

but the production rate is zero (at peak),

So there will be zero decline in production at peak

Image

Let me say it EXACTLY
Code:
                      dp
At   t == peakoil    ----  =  0
                      dt


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:22 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 429
Location: albuquerque
Quote:
You are confusing production deceleration with production rate.


You may be right.

Please check if my differentiatons of the normal distribution are correct or not.


My senior citizen math buddies not of much help. What's his name's disease?


best


And, what do you think is going to happen?
http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/dcvo ... m#gabreski


Last edited by billp on Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:24 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 12:00 am
Posts: 528
Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Leanan wrote:
More from Mr. al-Husseini and friends:

World oil output struggling, say Arab experts

Quote:
Leading figures from the Middle East oil industry added their voices on Tuesday to those warning that the world is struggling to sustain rising oil production.

"There is a real problem -- that supply may not be possible to increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels," Libya's National Oil Corporation chairman Shokri Ghanem said at an industry conference.

"The reason is, in some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the Sixties or the Fifties."

Sadad al-Husseini was a key architect of Saudi Arabian energy production policy for more than a decade whilst a top official at state oil firm Saudi Aramco. He was even more pessimistic, saying world oil production had already plateaued.

"We are already three years into level production," Husseini also told the annual Oil & Money conference, a gathering of top executives.


From the same article:

Quote:
Proven oil "reserves" are overstated by 300 billion barrels of speculative "resources", mainly in OPEC countries, he said. By 2030, production of oil and natural gas liquids could fall to about 75 million bpd.


2030...75 mbd...

Um....howzat?


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:42 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Posts: 429
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Quote:
but the production rate is zero (at peak),


But if what I read at The Oil Drum and Peak Oil are correct, peak oil was in about may 2005 so we may be headed down the roller coaster side of peak oil?

I don't know. Not my areas of expertise. I only read ... and think. Hopefully slowly and carefully.

best

Quote:
The contemplation of things as they are,
without error or confusion,
without substitution or imposture,
is in itself a nobler thing
than a whole harvest of invention.

Francis Bacon


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 7:14 pm 
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Posts: 528
Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
billp wrote:
Quote:
but the production rate is zero (at peak),


But if what I read at The Oil Drum and Peak Oil are correct, peak oil was in about may 2005 so we may be headed down the roller coaster side of peak oil?

I don't know. Not my areas of expertise. I only read ... and think. Hopefully slowly and carefully.

best

Quote:
The contemplation of things as they are,
without error or confusion,
without substitution or imposture,
is in itself a nobler thing
than a whole harvest of invention.

Francis Bacon


You know that point you reach on a roller coaster at the top of the first drop just as the chain kicks you loose and your stomach begins to ascend into your throat?

That's where we are right now.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
New postPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:03 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:00 am
Posts: 429
Location: albuquerque
Quote:
You know that point you reach on a roller coaster at the top of the first drop just as the chain kicks you loose and your stomach begins to ascend into your throat?

That's where we are right now.


ns sherlock.

ohanian's post attracted my attention.

Slide a toothpick along ohanian's "Let me say it EXACTLY " curve [the tangent - aka slope] and ask your self when did the rotation change from counter-clockwise to clockwise. And when will it change to counter-clockwise again.

At mu + 1.732 sigma? Are my differentiations correct or not? Senior citizen is not sure.

All of this dialog is sure fun to read.

best to all.

From all of our friends.

Psst.

Partially Persian educated ... and Israeli educated too IN MATH.


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