For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
Novus wrote:
The plateau started in 2004. The price of oil has more than doubled since then and now at the end of 2007 production numbers are pretty much the same. That is by definition Peak Oil. History has already been written and it says in no uncertain terms: Market forces are defeated, Peak Oil is real, it is here, it is NOW. In all honesty I don't think we have 5 to 10 years. In three years or less for all practical purposes the world we are living in now will have ended.
Words that bear repeating.
Take a look at the numbers. We are making record highs on oil prices. Food prices are up. And this is merely the prelude to the feast of consequences.
I think Thanksgiving of 2010 is likely to be quite a lot different than the upcoming holiday. A difference noticeable to even the most devout cornucopian. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Leading figures from the Middle East oil industry added their voices on Tuesday to those warning that the world is struggling to sustain rising oil production.
"There is a real problem -- that supply may not be possible to increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels," Libya's National Oil Corporation chairman Shokri Ghanem said at an industry conference.
"The reason is, in some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the Sixties or the Fifties."
Sadad al-Husseini was a key architect of Saudi Arabian energy production policy for more than a decade whilst a top official at state oil firm Saudi Aramco. He was even more pessimistic, saying world oil production had already plateaued.
"We are already three years into level production," Husseini also told the annual Oil & Money conference, a gathering of top executives.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 759 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
Now that's something, starting to get some real feedback from people "in the know" so to speak. I think we're really on to something here, this peak oil thing _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
jbeckton wrote:
Eli wrote:
If I am Saudi Royal I might think it is important to keep gas prices low so I can stay in power rather than ship off all my oil.
Apply your logic to the history of OPEC. If they stop exporting, they will risk attacks. They have lived in extravagant palaces for decades while the people have suffered. Now the money is even better!
They will sell every last drop while the money is there.
Besides, if the Saudis completely stopped exporting their oil, where would they get their food & other necessities from? It's not like they were self-sufficient or had that many other export items (when we're rolling down the oil decline slope and international trade has devolved to bartering between countries). _________________ "A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola
Last edited by Fredrik on Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 11, 2005 Posts: 430 Location: albuquerque
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:37 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
Quote:
WWIV already? Yes, the White House is preparing us for an invasion of Iran. That case has been made by many neocons, most recently by Norman Podhoretz in his new book, "World War IV: The Long Struggle Against Islamofascism." And as Pat Buchanan reacted on MSNBC's "Hardball" about all their warning signals: "I don't see how [the White House] can avoid attacking Iran and retaining their credibility going out of office."
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
[quote="Leanan"]
Quote:
Sadad al-Huseini says that global ...will rise by $12 annually for the next 4 to 5 years as new fields become increasingly costly to exploit.
What I found interesting about this is that he says "10 to 15 years left" but goes on to talk about the price increase... that still puts the price per barrel at $150 by 2013... more than 66% higher just 5 years from now...? Ouch.
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
aflurry wrote:
edit: maybe i should rephrase my first paragraph as a question so as not to sound like a dumbass. what i mean is, why do we relate the oil production graph to a normal distribution curve, and is this valid? because it SEEMS to me that the resemblance is only superficial and coincidental and that plotting a linear production rate through time is just a completely different thing than plotting relative statistical frequency. so, if it is only a superficial resemblance, how can predictions based on the normal distribution curve carry any weight at all?
You see this in other fields as well such as signal processing, where one can, but need not, work with Gaussian windowing functions for, say, the Gabor transform. It has nothing to do with statistics really in the form of some random variable being described. It just so happens that the the standard deviation of a Gaussian "distribution" curve can be found through the second derivative. I guess there will be some dark connection between all of this, but anyway.
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
thor wrote:
aflurry wrote:
edit: maybe i should rephrase my first paragraph as a question so as not to sound like a dumbass. what i mean is, why do we relate the oil production graph to a normal distribution curve, and is this valid? because it SEEMS to me that the resemblance is only superficial and coincidental and that plotting a linear production rate through time is just a completely different thing than plotting relative statistical frequency. so, if it is only a superficial resemblance, how can predictions based on the normal distribution curve carry any weight at all?
You see this in other fields as well such as signal processing, where one can, but need not, work with Gaussian windowing functions for, say, the Gabor transform. It has nothing to do with statistics really in the form of some random variable being described. It just so happens that the the standard deviation of a Gaussian "distribution" curve can be found through the second derivative. I guess there will be some dark connection between all of this, but anyway.
if by "dark connection" you mean that the curve could be predictive even though the connection is what i have been calling "coincidental." i'll buy it, at least until i hear a good argument against it.
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
I also much prefer Airline Pilots previous avatar.
This one to me is Babel on Peak Oil, cheap trashy Fox News style. *shrug* _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
billp wrote:
If the normal distribution model for oil production is correct, then production slope deceleration is maximum at peak. This argues for rapid decline in production, rather than a plateau, from the peak.
But there are lots of things which could change what happens.
Like an attack on Iran.
You are confusing production deceleration with production rate.
Code:
Let p be production per day (ie barrels per day)
dp
production rate = --
dt
d^2 p
production acceleration = -------
dt^2
At peak, the production acceleration is at it's most negative
but the production rate is zero (at peak),
So there will be zero decline in production at peak
Leading figures from the Middle East oil industry added their voices on Tuesday to those warning that the world is struggling to sustain rising oil production.
"There is a real problem -- that supply may not be possible to increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels," Libya's National Oil Corporation chairman Shokri Ghanem said at an industry conference.
"The reason is, in some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the Sixties or the Fifties."
Sadad al-Husseini was a key architect of Saudi Arabian energy production policy for more than a decade whilst a top official at state oil firm Saudi Aramco. He was even more pessimistic, saying world oil production had already plateaued.
"We are already three years into level production," Husseini also told the annual Oil & Money conference, a gathering of top executives.
From the same article:
Quote:
Proven oil "reserves" are overstated by 300 billion barrels of speculative "resources", mainly in OPEC countries, he said. By 2030, production of oil and natural gas liquids could fall to about 75 million bpd.
Joined: Dec 11, 2005 Posts: 430 Location: albuquerque
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 7:42 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
Quote:
but the production rate is zero (at peak),
But if what I read at The Oil Drum and Peak Oil are correct, peak oil was in about may 2005 so we may be headed down the roller coaster side of peak oil?
I don't know. Not my areas of expertise. I only read ... and think. Hopefully slowly and carefully.
The contemplation of things as they are,
without error or confusion,
without substitution or imposture,
is in itself a nobler thing
than a whole harvest of invention.
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 459 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
billp wrote:
Quote:
but the production rate is zero (at peak),
But if what I read at The Oil Drum and Peak Oil are correct, peak oil was in about may 2005 so we may be headed down the roller coaster side of peak oil?
I don't know. Not my areas of expertise. I only read ... and think. Hopefully slowly and carefully.
The contemplation of things as they are,
without error or confusion,
without substitution or imposture,
is in itself a nobler thing
than a whole harvest of invention.
Francis Bacon
You know that point you reach on a roller coaster at the top of the first drop just as the chain kicks you loose and your stomach begins to ascend into your throat?
Joined: Dec 11, 2005 Posts: 430 Location: albuquerque
Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Hus
Quote:
You know that point you reach on a roller coaster at the top of the first drop just as the chain kicks you loose and your stomach begins to ascend into your throat?
That's where we are right now.
ns sherlock.
ohanian's post attracted my attention.
Slide a toothpick along ohanian's "Let me say it EXACTLY " curve [the tangent - aka slope] and ask your self when did the rotation change from counter-clockwise to clockwise. And when will it change to counter-clockwise again.
At mu + 1.732 sigma? Are my differentiations correct or not? Senior citizen is not sure.
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