What is it about Peak Oil that doesn't grab people?

yeahbut · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 30, 2007 Posts: 292

This is the thing about PO that baffles me more than anything else. Why hasn't it grabbed the popular imagination? In the last few years, the awareness and discussion of anthropogenic climate change has gone thru a massive shift. From a topic that was the province of the loony left only a few years ago, it is now in the news constantly, talked about by practically everyone and legislated for in parliament. This is a subject that is really large, quite vague, and probably pretty long-term(at least in the time frame that usually motivates people ie 2-5 years). Those are conditions that usually cause immediate eye-glazing in most people, but somehow not with climate change.
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, we have PO. It's gonna hit people right in the attention-grabber, that is to say, the wallet. It's happening within a very human-scale time frame indeed. It can be boiled down to some very simple mental pictures(the oil is finite, it's in holes in the ground, they get sucked dry), unlike the much more amorphous global warming. And finally, people stand round water coolers every monday morning talking about how much it costs to drive to work now compared with a year ago. You'd think it was a no-brainer, but it obviously isn't. Most people, if they'll even engage at all on the subject, will say technology will sort it out, hydrogen, electric cars etc. So, people, please explain it to me. I'd really like to hear some theories.

albente · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 20, 2004 Posts: 1356

You hit the nail right on..

FloridaGirl · Tar Sands Joined: May 30, 2007 Posts: 72

I've wondered the exact same thing. I've tried different approaches with different people and the only one I've gotten to take it halfway serious is my husband and even that took a while.

I've tried the gentle approach and people seem to accept it but don't seem to take it seriously or express an interest in learning more as I would expect.

I've tried the shock approach and I get what I call the "deer in the headlight look" for a moment and then they seem to write me off as a little crazy in that area even though they know I'm perfectly sane.

Chesire · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 13, 2007 Posts: 267

/musings

Only from my own perspective

1. The russians are going to blow us up , Umm nope didn't happen
2. Jesus is coming , umm not yet
3. SNL scandal will Fark the economy in the US and then the world
umm nope didn't happen
4. 1984 will happen in real life well not yet
5. Kuwait liberation will destroy the world via lost oil production umm nope didn't happen
6, Jesus is coming nope not yet .
7. Aliens will be on the evening news with tidings of cold beer , hot pussy ,free energy , eternal youth and chicken in every pot. Umm nope not yet
8. Jesus is coming no really he is this time I know it. umm nope not yet
9. Earthquake will destroy California nope not yet.
10. Y2k Y2k Y2k will shut down the world as we know it. Umm nope not yet.
11. Chinese will start world war three umm nope not yet
12. America will destroy itself with Civil War version 2.0 er nope not yet.
13. Jesus is coming really really really we are not kidding this is it. HMM he musta stopped off for a cold one and lap dance cause he ain't here yet.
14. Iraq war version 2.0 will ignite world war 3 not yet.
15. Climate change is going to kill us all.

And so on and so forth , I am sure for most if not all areas of the globe you can insert comparable events that indicate the end of the world. Most people I would guess have lived in or are living in a state of impending doom ,and just don't have time or energy left for peak oil.

Also note that numerous apocryphal stories exist about people in history who told the truth and they came to a sudden, sticky end. Pretty much Fark it, the bleating of the beneficiaries of cheap energy will echo across the realm when it runs out. No worries though some bloated forgotten actress will make infomercials to get donations to feed the serfs. Well at least until someone kills her and eats her she will .

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1536

My take on this is...

Climate change allows them to sell you things. New light globes and a whole new bunch of "energy efficient" gadgets. MOST importantly it allows a boondoggle for corporations in carbon emissions trading. So we get to "solve" the climate change problem and keep growing forever and ever.

Peak Oil and associated growth problems are incompatible with the capitalist and corporate agenda of continued growth. With Peak Oil an honest message is you will have to consume less, have less access to resources, eat locally, travel less, wear sweaters in winter and turn the heat down, don't turn on your air con in summer, drive a smaller car or car pool, use less energy in general, you will have a smaller home, your children will have less presents, food prices will go up, the stock market will go down.

In terms of what it means for "the economy" it's a no brainer Peak Oil is the Grim Reaper the precursor to other limitations on resource extraction from gas and coal including a host of metals, not to mention strains on agricultural production due to rising input costs of pesticides, fertilizers and processing and transportation.
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Carlhole · Knight of the Realm Joined: Jul 05, 2004 Posts: 3145

If it's not on mainstream TV, it's not real to people. And even then, it's quickly forgotten.

It will only become real to people when it impacts their lives, when gas gets up to $4.50 or $5.00/gal.

Most people have too much information to digest as it is. And when someone comes along and says the world is going to end, people frame that against what seems to be happening in the mainstream. If they don't see Wolf Blitzer talking about it, if the NY Times isn't reporting then it's not real, it must be a crock.

People who are attracted to a site like PeakOil.com are those who naturally like ideas and can entertain them long enough to arrive at some conclusion about it's meaning. I wouldn't say that the PO community is representative of the general population, who really don't entertain anything outside of their jobs that is the least but technical or that requires some critical thinking.

All that aside, Peak Oil has it's naysayers too, which include ostensibly reliable organizations (CERA), the oil companies (and their commercials) and even voices like Alex Jones or Jerome Corsi. So it's difficult for many to peer through all the murkiness of Peak Oil Theory.
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Tanada

Basically what Cheshire said and several others implied, PO is the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Oil has been running out every 10 years in the media since it was first developed on a commercial scale. Consequently people have gotten used to hearing oil is running low and not having any restriction on western oil use.

Until oil becomes physically constrained nobody but us nuts is going to pay attention to PO.
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Cloud9 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1041

Most of the people involved in global warming haven’t parked their jets yet. We evolved on a tropical savanna where the threats were imminent and violent. We are wired with ten minute attention spans so that we can quickly evaluate stimuli. Is the new thing going to kill us? Is it something we can mate with? Is it something we can eat? Once that evaluation is made, we put the stimulus in a neat stereotypical mental box and move on to the next potential threat. That’s why we can sit in front of the tube and flip channels for hours. We are wired to watch anything that moves. Everybody knows that oil will run out some day. Just not today. If it runs out today, that $40,000, two ton, four wheel drive bus sitting in my drive way just became a paper weight. I still have three years of payments on that tank. Not something I want to think about. Besides, I have a leak in the plumbing and I have to go to work in ten minutes.

yeahbut · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 30, 2007 Posts: 292

Yup. So far we've got: doom-itis syndrome(Y2k was a crock ergo nothing's gonna happen); PO is not in the mainstream media so for most people that means it isn't real; Some big, important sounding people and groups regularly argue against it; Peak oil is not compatible with economic orthodoxy of continual growth so the message is too much of a mindf**k, and too unpalatable for most people; The sad and accurate point that a lot of people simply don't want to think critically about complex issues that aren't to do with their jobs; Our biological hardwiring to focus on short term threats(altho I find that less convincing since this threat can have an immediate impact on the wallet, and our ability to plan and remember has also been genetically highly advantageous and selected for). I'd go along with all of those reasons. I think that the threat that serious contemplation of PO represents to one's peace of mind is another-maybe it's TOO immediate, TOO personal. Everyday scenarios of people going about their day start looking obscene, or terribly vulnerable. For many others, the very ubiquity of oil makes it impossible to see-it's so entwined in our lives that it's invisible, so when they think of expensive gas they just think that means it will cost more to go to the supermarket. But I reckon there must be more reasons. Keep em coming...

Nike62

I completely agree with Tanada and Concerned, but I want to add a little consideration.

Almost everyone base his life on some strong belief, and cannot accept easily to dismiss them.
For instance, many believe in God, in Homeland, and so on; if you say them that God doesn't exist and Patriotism is an insane sentiment, you will obviously dismissed as queer and irksome, because this would be an *attack* to the foundations of their life, which they (the most part of the people) simply are not able to "manage".
So, GW results manageable because its long distance in time (half a century or more), which means:

1) I'm not concerned. (very important, this one!)
2) The fantastic human intelligence and technology will fix it.
3) Will not be required big sacrifices or *radical lifestyle changes*.

On the contrary, PO means:

1) I'm concerned. (very saddening question!)
2) There is no enough time for a simple and no-pain technology fix.
3) We'll have to change drastically our economy, our society, our projects, our life...

As you can easily understand, when you point out a man something of unbearable for him, unless you have *solid and evident proofs*, he will simply scramble for every other possibility at hand, such as:

a) The timing of PO is questionable and uncertain.
b) It is utterly impossible that our political leaders didn't know, and knowing, that they didn't take any action to preserve their power and their wealth.
c) It is utterly impossible that our financiers and industrialists didn't know, and knowing, that they didn't take any action to preserve their power and their wealth.
d) In the long run, technology will fix it, as it has ever done before. "the stone age didn't finish because the end of stones"...

Micki

Let's also add in that noone is a prophet in their own town.
Unless you really are an oil geologist, not many people who know you will take your opinion seriously, especially since they are assuring us on TV that all is well.
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Lighthouse · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 02, 2006 Posts: 1458

What is it about Peak Oil that doesn't grab people?

The doomer-porn turns people off.

PO is real. Armageddon is not ...
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pigleg · Last edited by pigleg on Mon Nov 05, 2007 10:00 am; edited 1 time in total

I think this survey has the answer: peakoil article

The majority of people on this site are INTP or INTJs. You need to be logic/science-minded to weigh the peakoil facts and see the problem; other folks just don't get it or don't care.
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Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1536

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1536