Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high

Geko45 · Last edited by Geko45 on Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

The EIA released their monthly production figures for August '07 yesterday and they showed that worldwide production has dipped to 83.920 mbpd. While still within the realm of the "bumpy plateau", we are currently down 1.5 mbpd from the all time high of 85.467 mbpd set in July '06. It is also interesting to note that the NYMEX front-month future contract was $74.46 per barrel in July '06, but in August of '07 it was $79.63 per barrel. So, even though crude was trading higher, the world supplied less. Interesting...

Click image for larger version

Sources:

Table 1.4 World Oil Supply, 1997-Present

Cushing, OK Crude Oil Future Contract 1 (Dollars per Barrel)
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Geko45 - Producer of Doomer Porn

auscanman

Great find! What I find most ominous is that in August 2007 we produced the lowest amount in any month since the start of 2005. Interesting times ahead for sure...

Zardoz

Right, but once again, we need more data points, this isn't a representative sample, the jury's still out, lots of new fields are coming online, it's just a dip like we had in the 80s, etc., etc., etc., yadda, yadda, yadda....

Bullshit!

We've peaked, boys and girls. Get it through your thick skulls. This is it. We're there. We aren't going to leave this little matter to our kids to deal with. It's going to be our problem, as much as theirs.

We're screwed.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen

AirlinePilot

I agree Zardoz. Anyone who isn't going to be dead in the next 2 to 3 years is likely going to experience some significant economic and social upheavle.

It is starting to look inevitable.

IslandCrow

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2358

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2358

roccman

pip

Google "EIA t11d" to get the EIA's crude oil and lease condensate table. I would post it if I knew how. This curve does not look like a plateau at all to me. It's a gradual decline that's picking up steam.

Peak May '05 at 74,298,000
Aug '07 at 72,512,000 - lowest point since Aug '04 down 1.8 million from May '05.
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The road goes on forever and the party never ends - REK

Eli

People we need to keep something in mind here that is really critical just because you are right about PO it does not prove you are not sane.

Even a complete whack job could figure out that this is not good.

Anyway need more evidence to determine if we are totally screwed now or if we have another couple days to prepare.

yull

Yes, looks very likely now peak is history, certainly with conventional crude oil.

It's game over now. The party is almost finished.

AlCzervik

Zardoz

Nice, Al.

Paints an ugly picture, doesn't it?
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen

raober · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 18, 2007 Posts: 25

Well, TOD put out that prediction that we stay on the bumpy plateau until mid '09. Considering all the attacks on supply/crazy weather/crazy leaders/etc...that seems optimistic.

Guess the question becomes demand. A serious economic meltdown could easily knock at least a few mbpd off the demand numbers. That could stretch things out another year or two...at most.

I keep seeing reference to 2010-2012 as when things *really* get bad. Can't say I disagree with that.

whereagles