For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 7:43 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
PraiseDoom wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
Very few, if any, people here believe that oil will run out anytime soon. Running out has nothing to do with peak oil.
And peak oil may not have much to do with anything else beyond volatile prices, if our 2+ years into the post peak world is any example.
Replacement, substitution, technology, efficiency, demand destruction and conservation all rolled into a million different personal solutions which to date has meant, we are having a tough time convincing the world that PO means half the cool, neat MadMax end of the world scenario's which have been speculated on since Colin first did the first "End of Cheap Oil" article.
Turns out, oil doesn't have to be cheap for us to keep finding, using, wasting and jawing about it as though it will run out tomorrow.
But it cooler talking about it running out then just "gee, there is a little less, so I'll buy an electric car", nicht wahr?
Praisedoom I bet you one lynch your ass is kicked off these forums again and forever. I'll bet you two lynches people are starving around the world right now because they can not afford or even procure precious petroleum. I'll bet your a thousand lynches peak oil is coming your way and you have not even considered the consequences. I'll bet you one million of those worthless chits you are a complete idiot parrot.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:42 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
PraiseDoom wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
Very few, if any, people here believe that oil will run out anytime soon. Running out has nothing to do with peak oil.
And peak oil may not have much to do with anything else beyond volatile prices, if our 2+ years into the post peak world is any example.
Well, volatile prices for you, though generally increasing prices. For other countries, whose population can less afford the oil, it may be more than volatile prics. For the more wealthy countries, the peak has merely been the start of a stock drawdown and more expensive fill-ups. If you think that's the worst that will happen, do you imagine stock levels are inexhaustable?
You also mentioned substitution without apparently being aware that the total amount of harnessable energy can not possibly increase for ever, particularly as harnessing the energy takes resources.
If you feel peak oil is not a problem, either explain, in detail, why it is not a problem or stop posting your belief system.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 153 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:01 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
I think praisedoom is right that even at $80 there is a small move to other energy sources. The issue is very simple whether there is sufficient time to make the move before the fall in oil production really kicks in. at the moment the jury is out. What I don't think is, or should be, in any doubt is that PO has or will in the next fews years happen.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2943 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 9:31 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Got curious reading this about the progress of replacement of pure ICEs by PHEVs or EVs in the US.
Quote:
As of October 2007 Toyota has sold 471,838 Prius in the US since launch of the first Prius in 2000.
Not much of a dent considering there are more cars than people here. I believe EVs will have to be the way to go, if we are going to go anywhere at all, seeing how little influence government can have on automakers at this stage - those updated CAFE standards couldn't be more useless/pathetic. The government ordered the automakers to stop building domestic vehicles in WWII, for Christ's sake. Who will build those EVs, since we're dead set on waiting until the economy collapses before doing anything about this problem?
Hey pstarr - how many Lynches in a Yergin? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Smudger wrote:
The issue is very simple whether there is sufficient time to make the move before the fall in oil production really kicks in.
It's only that simple if there actually are alternatives in the scale and form required to substitute for oil (then natural gas, then coal). I think such an assumption is dubious now and, in the future, there is no doubt that growth in those alternative sources will not be able to keep up with desired economic growth indefinitely.
Even when people know the issue, they can't contemplate a future without economic growth.
Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 12:36 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
TonyPrep wrote:
You also mentioned substitution without apparently being aware that the total amount of harnessable energy can not possibly increase for ever, particularly as harnessing the energy takes resources.
And the website is peak oil, not peak energy. Unless you want to argue that A) oil is the ONLY energy? and B) the sun will stop shining soon?
We use oil because its easy....no particular reason beyond that. And in a minority of its use, it makes a good industrial feedstock.
The reason why, at the end of the day peak oil won't matter much, and hasn't mattered much since it happened 2+ years ago, is because the issue is fixable with not much more than a change in behavior. No new technology, no exponential increase in much of any other kind of use, just change peoples behavior over what and how they drive and presto.....we can switch to even easier problem to solve, which is how to beef up electrical production by a decent 25% to cover the transition to electrical transport so we can still drive everywhere, only without much in the way of transport fuel input, crude wise.
TonyPrep wrote:
If you feel peak oil is not a problem, either explain, in detail, why it is not a problem or stop posting your belief system.
It happened 2+ years ago and A) hasn't stopped the biggest wasters on the planet from wasting B) those who think it matters are still considered nutjobs C) 2+ years of historical precedent.
Really, if America and the rest of the world continuing to grow their economies with less global output isn't a good reason for why it DIDN'T matter ( past tense ), I say pick something else silly to worry about and lets all go moan and whine about that. At least there will be some uncertainty involved.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:39 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
PraiseDoom wrote:
Really, if America and the rest of the world continuing to grow their economies with less global output isn't a good reason for why it DIDN'T matter ( past tense ), I say pick something else silly to worry about and lets all go moan and whine about that. At least there will be some uncertainty involved.
This thread is about Michael Lynch's ideas on peak oil. It occasionally goes off topic but we try to get back on track. So I won't explain, here, just where you are wrong except to say that this has all been discussed many times. If you are not convinced by such discussions then I doubt that anyone could do so. All I can say is I hope you're right though nature tells me you're dead wrong.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
"The near-term worries about falling inventories and a weak dollar are outweighing the longer-term effects of a weak economy and conservation in people's minds,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
The above linked article includes this quote from Michael Lynch: "The jobs report offsets the bearish economic news we've had recently,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "Demand will rise if the economy picks up.''
Recently, Daniel Yergin was claiming that the oil price had now decoupled from the normal economics of supply and demand. Presumably that was an attempt to explain why oil had risen so much, despite there being ample supplies (in Yergin's mind). But now we have Lynch actually refuting that, apparently, by implying that the oil price is rising because of increased demand. The only way that increased demand can push up prices is if the supply is constrained. So is Mr Lynch now quietly acknowledging that production can't keep pace with demand, giving an effective peak?
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
I would suggest they are easily slammed by looking at the stock market - my comments on thsi board about a year ago are coming home to roost my friends - the remuneration levels for experienced people is reeling to levels over $1500 per day for highly expereinced personnel - the price of oil will be over $150 / bbl in less than 24 months, China is rationing gasoline, there are plenty of refudiating data issues out there - all you have to do is look. Trends are the answer here - Mathematics drives all decisions.
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Yergin was on the Today Show this morning during a long report on the gas situation. Like the pro-war pundits, these idiots get congratulated for predicting it completely wrong.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2082 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 11:51 pm Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
Let's see, Lynch, eats a lot of tacos and prognosticates about economics. Yergin eats a lot of yogurt and prognosticates about economics. Energydigger drills oil wells around the world, in Saudi Arabia of all places, and has been kidnapped doing so a couple of times.
Lynch once said that oil would be $35 a barrel by 2005. Yergin says there's lots of oil, but for some reason he can't explain why we can't get it out of the ground or why the price is so high. He says that Adam Smith's simple law of supply and demand to explain prices does not explain high oil prices. He's working on a new principle of economics to explain the conundrum that will surpass anything Adam Smith ever said and win himself a nobel prize next year in economics. Energydigger, when the Nigerian kidnappers will give him access to a laptop, messages that we are at peak oil. But what would he know. He's obviously babbling in duress.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2007 3:05 am Post subject: Re: Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil
LOL - seahorse, I loved your comeback - well, i guess my 7 years of hazard duty caught your attention - I am 48 now and gave up the hard trail in 1996 doing the Africa thing so I don't depend on kidnappers laptops anymore but if you will notice during my babbling that I got it right and the others mised the mark - go back and look at my comments a year ago.... now I will tell you some more.... I am presently working for once of the largest majors in the world as a drilling supervisor - the CEO of this company on the corporate intranet directly stated experienced manpower as their primary challenge in the coming couple of years.... specifically, he said that 91% of experienced company men with the company would be retired by 2010.... that is a pretty dramatic statement on attrition levels for any company. The president of Chesapeake energy recently said he was hiring the entire graduating class of one of the Texas petroleum engineering schools with a graduating class volume of something like 11 as I remember - - I may have the exact numbers wrong in this statement but I am close and any way you look at it, well, it's a pretty dismal situation for our industry. Of course, we will get by in the industry one way or another but a lot of expensive mistakes are going to be a part of the learning curve unfortunately. Look, I nor does anyone else have all the answers - no crystal balls but there are a lot of trends I have seen on the ground, on the drilling ships, platforms, spars around the world working as an engineer in this business for 20 years - what I have seen squarely supports peak oil theory - and for me, the theory part is gone now - here is another prediction you can come back to look at in 24-36 months - $200 a bbl oil. Might be right, might be wrong, but i bet it is closer to $200 than $70 in 36 months.
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