how will US (worldwide) recession affect oil depletion?

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 786

There is a thread about the possibility of an US recession like in the 1930ths, which would mean a worldwide recession.
How likely is this going to happen? One article said that the expected recession will occur within 6 month.

How would be the influence on the oil depletion of a really deep recession or one like in the 70th , 2000? the price of crude is easing yet.

yull

Past recessions (1990, 1998, and 2001) as you can see have only led to flat production or a small short drop in production but things are flat already. If we have a sharp recession then it could reduce market tightness for perhaps just 1-2 or 3 at most years - by then it's likely the geological decline woul be setting in, rising the price sharply. So a recession won't do much, in fact it will likely be the last recession we ever have.

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1531

stu

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3676

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic31163.html+effects

We discussed the US effects in this thread. The "global effects" might or might not be similar.

Currently, the US is consuming about 1/4 of the world's energy.

In the recessionary period between 1979 and 1982, there were a couple of other things going on at the time: big increase in interest rates (choking off the economy) and also implementation of fuel efficiency standards in the US. If you would have just had the recession rather than the other two things, there is some question in my mind as to whether there would have been as big of a decline.

Even though the sky is falling, the stock traders are panicking, the banks are closing down, etc. as of last week, the US fuel consumption was still up over last year at the same time.

mark

There is a difference this time. Past recessions have always had the luxury of abundant energy with which to pull ourselves back to growth. Not this time.

If TPTB allow the US to slide into recession, given our high level of debt and the ubiquitous nature of the dollar, a worldwide depression will inevitably follow.

Central banks the world over will do everything in their power to avoid even the hint of recession. Seems they’ve all taken the lead from Greenspan/Bernanke; print more dollars (yen, pound, rubles, etc.) and lower interest rates. We ani’t seen notin’ yet.

The economy is being managed to the best of their ability. Like the small boy trying hold back the sea with a finger, eventually the sea wins. When it washes over us, not even the rich will survive.
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aflurry · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 822