Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
DantesPeak wrote:
As Leanan's article states, diesel is in short supply as the US harvest season gets underway. Refiners have optimized output for gasoline since spring time shortages, leaving diesel supplies well under last year’s levels.
Quote:
Diesel prices surge up 4 more cents
The national average retail price of a gallon of diesel increased 4 cents for the week ending Sept. 17 to $2.964, from $2.924 during the previous week. The price jumped 25.1 cents in a year-over-year basis.
The average price increased in every region tracked by the U.S. Department of Energy. The biggest increase -- more than 6 cents -- was in the Central Atlantic at $3.054, the most expensive diesel in the nation.
The New England region had the second-highest price at $3.025.
Buyers in the Gulf Coast and Lower Atlantic paid the least for diesel at $2.903 and $2.916, respectively.
Fortunately farm equipment built before 2000 can run on high sulfur heating oil grade diesel with no problems and the newer stuff can use it in a pinch, though you have to change the oil every 150 hours instead of 600 and you should change the fuel filters every few months as well on the high sulfur blends. Failing that Jet-A or really almost all the Kerosene based jet fuels will run a diesel as well, though they have about 5% less energy per gallon so consumption goes up slightly. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:28 am Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
State Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson said he is getting telephone calls from farmers who are having problems finding diesel for harvest. He said most of the calls are from eastern North Dakota, where there are more corn, sunflower and soybeans crops, but "I think (the shortage) is pretty widespread
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
“I have been out of one grade (of gas) several times because it was not convenient to get it from Columbus. About two weeks ago I had to have gas hauled in from Omaha because there was no gas in Columbus, Geneva, Norfolk or any of the closer places. Omaha was closest place I could get gas for,” Brunken said. “I was told there were three stations out of gas at that time
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5167 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
Train Derailment Impacts Fuel Supply
Burlington, Vermont - October 23, 2007
More than 200,000 gallons of gasoline was on the train the train that derailed in Middlebury this week, and all of it was headed to a storage terminal in Burlington. An official at Global Companies, which owns the terminal that the gasoline was headed to, ways it's premature to say whether the Burlington area will experience a shortage of gasoline. Company vice-president Ed Faneuil says it all depends on how soon the wreck can be cleaned up and how much damage was done to the rail cars. In the meantime, he says Vermont Railway is looking at an alternative rail route through Bellow Falls to get gas to Burlington.
Gasoline distributing companies like Champlain Oil are also temporarily transporting more gasoline to Burlington by truck. Champlain Oil spokesperson Bob Stone says, ""I don't think you're going to notice a shortage at all because we're making changes to the way we dispatch our trucks. It's basically just going to take three more trips down to Albany to get the same product and we're not going to let the stations run out." Stone also says consumers shouldn't see a spike in gas prices because of the train derailment.
WCAX _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
“We buy from several people, but there’s no product to be had here for the last two months,” Vining said.
He said he ordinarily buys fuel from the two Jamestown NuStar terminals and the Mandan refinery, but with this shortage he has sent drivers to Minot, N.D., Glendive and Billings, Mont., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Moorhead and Sauk Center, Minn., to make up for fuel he cannot get from his usual sources.
“We have 10 or 15 farmers now waiting for loads,” Vining said.
Jerry Fuchs, CEO and general manager of Bloom Oil, said North Dakota, being the farthest point north on the NuStar’s pipeline, has historically had some outages lasting a few days, but in the past two months outages have lasted weeks, not days.
“There have been days when we could not find a gallon of diesel in the state of North Dakota,” he said. “I’ve even had to ration some of my customers and give them half of what they wanted so we could keep all the farmers going.”
Kyle Katchmark, who drives for Bloom Oil, said he waited 44 hours in his truck at the NuStar terminal.
“One load — that’s all I got,” he said.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 7:37 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
Outages have occurred at some stores across the state, although the shortage has gone unnoticed to motorists for the most part because transporters have done "one heck of a job" in making deliveries, Carlson said in an e-mail.
Quote:
A Casey's General Store in Cedar Rapids was without premium and 10 percent ethanol blend for a couple of days earlier this week, although the store still had regular unleaded, said Danielle McGuin, an assistant manager.
"We lose a lot of business" when some fuels aren't available, McGuin said. The station had all three grades Friday
Gov. Chet Culver has temporarily lifted limits on how long gasoline and diesel truck drivers can work. Culver says he hopes the action will combat fuel shortages in neighboring states that he says have led to higher prices across the region.
Culver says he hopes it will help reduce the price of fuel in Iowa.
And someone posted an interesting "on the ground" report over at TOD today:
Quote:
I have an aunt in Verona, North Dakota, population 200. She says they can get neither diesel nor heating oil and that gasoline has gone to $3.35/gallon at the local independent station. She says but I cannot confirm that the reason gasoline prices and supplies are spotty is due to the lack of diesel with which to delivery the gasoline. They've gone to heating oil rationing, where customers report what their fuel levels are and then (in theory) the co-op delivers what is available to those most in need.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5167 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:13 am Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
US Senate to hold hearings on persistent North Dakota gasoline shortages:
Quote:
Dorgan sets hearing on N.D. gas prices
Published Sunday, November 18, 2007
BISMARCK - Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., wants to get to the bottom of North Dakota's gasoline and diesel shortage and the associated high pump prices.
To do that, he's set a U.S. Senate field hearing in Bismarck on Tuesday.
Dorgan is chairman of the Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee.
He said North Dakotans paid the second highest price for gasoline in the nation this past summer, and sometimes gasoline and diesel were not available when needed.
Though some of the shortages were attributed to refineries shut down for maintenance, “We need to keep these shortages from happening again in North Dakota,” he said.
Grand Forks Herald _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Thanks for that, Dante. No. Dakota seems to be on the cutting edge of post peak--not an enviable position to be in.
Ironically, it is sometimes called "the [potential] Saudi Arabia of wind energy." Perhaps it is one place that just might be able to make the transition in time if this serves as a wake up. But I really, really doubt it given the usual inertia and lack of imagination, the huge infrastructure shift necessary, and the dwindling skills base. Their falling population is a blessing on the one hand--fewer people to feed..., but there is also a huge brain-drain out of the area.
Maybe we should have a special thread just on ND and perhaps other areas that seem to be getting into the stickier aspects of PO a bit earlier than the rest of us?
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
I think if you are recognised and can keep yourself warm, the Dakotas and Montana are going to be a safer bet than most other states. Popularly overlooked, low population density, go through the pain barrier early, have sufficient water, harsh winters will discourage refugees. I am not sure at this late stage an "infrastructure shift" is desirable, as far as the long-term interests of the existing population are concerned. They are probably better off being abandoned to their fate and sinking off the radar. Those aren't going to be positive factors for California say, no matter how you cut it. In fact, I wish the UK had that kind of geography. Problem here is, the population density is 60 times higher and you can walk from any part of the country to any other part, on foot, year round. Not good. _________________ "The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Twilight wrote:
"I am not sure at this late stage an "infrastructure shift" is desirable, as far as the long-term interests of the existing population are concerned. They are probably better off being abandoned to their fate and sinking off the radar."
Good points, well stated. Keep in mind that winters are getting less harsh in the upper midwest, but they can still be quite deadly. Water is likely to be a limiting factor on the prairie, especially as droughts get deeper and aquifers continue to get used up.
But I think it is indeed time to reconsider whether we should even attempt a frenetic drive to create alternative energy infrastructures. It is time to value just living within the means given us, and to value, yes value, dying when those means are not locally available. This would be a radical shift in values for the west (and perhaps most other places now), but if this isn't the time to deeply reconsider our fundamental assumptions, I don't know what time would be.
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
dohboi said:
Quote:
But I really, really doubt it given the usual inertia and lack of imagination, the huge infrastructure shift necessary, and the dwindling skills base. Their falling population is a blessing on the one hand--fewer people to feed..., but there is also a huge brain-drain out of the area.
I think you have brought out an unstated, but implicit complication for localities that will be plagued first by the PO situation. The brain drain problem will increase the difficulty and exacerbate the need to solve the effects of PO; those solutions will have to come from a mainly localized effort. Being short of capital, people and neural cells is going to make it very difficult for most regions to cope.
As more outlying regions fall into the grips of declining fossil fuel availability, it can only be hoped that a gathering of minds, perhaps, via the Internet, can provide the technical skills necessary for them to address their problems.
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 9:33 am Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
hey pup55
i am new to this website,apriciate everything u wrote here,wanted to ask,
what do u think on gasoline inventories in comparison to the heat oil inventories,do u think that the heat mkt as tight as the rbob mkt?
and tnx again
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
heat oil inventories
Welcome, Yaron.
I do not study distillates as much as unleaded.
Stocks of heating oil (>500PPM Distillate fuel) are only 45 million barrels at the moment, compared to about 60 million last year for the same week. In the 10 week period between January 12 '07 and March 9. '07, the supply dropped by 20 million barrels.
The records in the EIA website only go back to the mid 90-s but it looks like this was a fairly normal sized drop. The highest I think was around '96 when the inventory dropped by 24 million barrels during this period.
So what I am saying is that unless there is a really serious chill out this year, there should be enough supply to make it through.
Note: The all time low inventory of heating oil was 30 million barrels, which occurred this year in June. So, there might be some operability issues when the supplies get lower than this, which could happen toward the end of the winter, if the stocks do not get a little higher between now and Jan 1.
It looks as though back in September of 2000, Bill Richardson, Energy Secretary was worried about supplies in the NEUS. At that time, the inventory was about 24 million barrels in the Northeast. Right now, in the Northeast, we are closer to 35 million barrels, so at least we have the inventory in the place where we are likely to need it. At that time, the inventory in PADDII (the Lakes states) was 8.6 million barrels. The inventory right now in that region is only 2.2 million barrels. So if you live up around Chicago or Cleveland right now, or LaCrosse like Frank the Tank, and have a heating oil furnace, you might give this some thought. The winter of 2004 was cold enough in this region to drop the inventory by... 2.2 million barrels.
In unleaded, I still think there is going to be some question. Inventories in PADDII and PADDIV (which is Chicago and up around Denver) are abnormally low for this time of year. The next four weeks are typically pretty strong demand, and there is little or no incentive on the part of the refiners to produce extra unleaded, since the margins are so bad. So, unless there is a big increase in imports this will be a nagging problem, and unless it is resolved by spring, this will be an even bigger nagging problem.
Keep in mind that about six weeks ago, I predicted some issues right about this time unless we got in some imports, which is exactly what happened. So, maybe I am worried about nothing.
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: North American Fuel Shortage Reports
Quote:
A fire at a Shell refinery east of Edmonton is partly to blame for a shortage of diesel fuel in Alberta.
Flying J Inc., which operates more than 20 diesel outlets in Alberta, said six outlets have run out of diesel and several others list their supply as "critically low."
Flying J partners with Shell Canada, which had a sour gas leak spark a fire at its Scotford upgrader in Fort Saskatchewan 10 days ago.
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