Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2679 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:41 am Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
Building gas fired power is not sustainable, only retarded. But it's very marginal and will remain that way. Wind and nuclear is what we will expand, going forward.
During the last 30 years energy demand has gone up and down a little, an "undulating plateau" if you'd like. 3 % up in the last 5 years doesn't mean very much as we might well go back down 3 % in the next 5.
People usually spend their vacations in their second homes in the countryside (Swedes have the highest second home ownership in the world) or by going abroad. Still, if you look at the data, jet fuel is a comparably tiny part of total consumption in this country.
Increase in vehicle use has apparaently been countered by more efficient cars (even though we drive the least efficient cars in Europe) and by less oil consumption in other sectors.
Sweden imports about as many cars as we export.
There sure is a limit to efficiences. But while the low hanging fruit has been picked, especially in industry where lower energy use is driven by getting higher profit, we can expect continuing gradual efficiency improvements in industry.
The big savings lie in private consumption, on private individuals and in non-energy intensive industry, like automotive manufacture where energy isn't one of the big costs so it doesn't get as much attention as in for example paper, mining and steel.
Lots of waste around.
There are lots of more great links to find at the IEA webpage. They have the links I showed for Sweden, but for all countries in the world! _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:36 am Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
Starvid, I'm not sure what you're trying to claim. Are you saying that economic growth can continue indefinitely (that is, as far into the future as one cares to look) but sustainably? Are you saying that every doubling of economic activity can take place without using any more resources?
I don't think you are saying that and, if not, the Swedish example is good (though I'm not sure what its economic growth has been over the last 30 years) but I don't think it represents an infinitely sustainable growth society that can be replicated the world over.
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 11:50 am Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
Starvid wrote:
]And still, there is immense waste. Most people I know could cut their energy consumption by 50-75 % without lowering their standard of living.
People probably could cut their energy consumption by 50% without lowering their standard of living. In the 1970’s one of the problems that a thermodynamics professor gave my class was to estimate, with then existing technology, how much the average American could reduce their energy consumption without reducing their standard of living. The class returned estimates of about 50% across the board.
During the 1970’s the US reduced its energy consumption considerably in response to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. By the mid 1980’s most of those savings had been rescinded. This occurred because the government had heavily subsidized energy conservation during the 1970’s, and reduced those subsidies during the 1980’s. The ROI (rate of return) on conservation was not adequate during the following years to maintain continued investment in conservation.
The same situation presently holds. Conservation on a large scale would require the replacement of a huge percentage of the present infrastructure. By the time the cost of that replacement infrastructure was recouped, the oil era would have long since pasted. The society, to make conservation work on any significant scale, would have to be rebuilt based on the concept of a completely oil free culture, and since it would be rebuilt with the utility of oil, it would be a contradiction in, an of itself. I doubt if that will ever be possible in our laissez faire economy. Sweden’s experiment is commendable, but unless oil as an energy source, can be replaced completely, it is doomed to failure in the final analysis.
This is a very interesting subject, but we have gotten completely off topic. To continue, I would suggest we move this discussion to another thread?
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:27 pm Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
shortonoil wrote:
People probably could cut their energy consumption by 50% without lowering their standard of living.
In principle, I'd agree. But not everyone could do this since cutting out waste also cuts out the jobs of many people. If everyone has a more efficient car, we need less filling stations. If everyone drives less, we need less filling stations and fewer mechanics. Less trips means a smaller leisure industry. Less frivolous shopping means a contraction of the retail industry. More energy efficient light bulbs means less bulb manufacture and lower need for electricity generation. And so on.
That's not to say conservation should not be attempted but it will have an effect on people's standards of living because some will be directly affected and others will suffer due to the knock on effect on the economy. There is no free lunch, but powering down and resourcing down are essential. The Swedish example shows that in a world of plentiful resources, reducing waste can be done, for a time, without significantly reducing living standards, at least over a few decades. Unfortunately, we don't have a few decades and we don't live in a world of plentiful resources any more, particularly as over 2 billion people in India and China are now trying to raise their living standards rapidly.
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:12 pm Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
TonyPrep wrote:
]In principle, I'd agree. But not everyone could do this since cutting out waste also cuts out the jobs of many people.
Theoretically, the unemployed from increased efficiencies could be put to work further improving efficiencies. Unfortunately, the ROI of increased efficiencies would soon fall below what a free market would sustain. PO will either have to be the death of macro-capitalism as we know it, or the death of us!
Quote:
Unfortunately, we don't have a few decades and we don't live in a world of plentiful resources any more, particularly as over 2 billion people in India and China are now trying to raise their living standards rapidly.
As their now oil based cultures run out of oil, this will probably result in the greatest human disaster in the history of the world. The Globalist, in their pursuit of quick easy profits, will be left with the blood of billions on their hands.
Joined: Jun 02, 2004 Posts: 1078 Location: Bristol, UK
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 4:15 am Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
Quote:
The Oil Drum: Tupi, the new kid in town Last week the name was Tupi, a field found by Petrobras in the Campos Basin off Brasil; with prospects of 5 to 8 Gb of intermedium gravity oil (28º API) and gas, it boosted the country's reserves of hydrocarbons by 50%. A remarkable find (for today's standards) announced again in a period of high prices. link
The Oil Drum considers what we know about this find, the challenges and what it means for Petrobras and the world. _________________ "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2679 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:21 pm Post subject: Re: PetroBras Giant Light Oil Discovery
By the way, Kashagan was discovered in 2000, not 20-30 years ago as I wrote previously. But the Russians knew 20-30 years ago that there might well be something down there.
So, the real way of looking at this is as the biggest discovery in 7 years, and while it will be problematic to exploit, so was Kashagan. Or is, as it's not producing yet. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: Top general urges Brazil to develop nuclear weapons...
I think the pursuit of militarism in developing countries is a major drain on their infrstructure and economies. We in Canada are fairly lucky that we are so close to the USA and so we gain an umbrella effect for defence. If we tried to pursue the level of military spending, even as a percentage of our GDP, equal to the US, it would impact so many other economic possibilities. I think we underspend, it should be more but not that much more.
The U.S. can afford all kinds of advanced weapons as they are so wealthy, but not Brazil or most other countries. I even wonder how Russia manages it, as their people are not so affluent.
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1201 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject: BRAZIL: Colonialism Provokes Murders of Indigenous People
In November 2007, a company producing sugar and alcohol in Mato Grosso do Sul was closed by the Special Mobile Inspection Group after it was found to be exploiting over 800 indigenous workers in conditions akin to slavery.
The Special Group was set up specifically to combat the practice of slave labour, and is made up of inspectors from the Labour Ministry, the Public Prosecutor's Office and the Federal Police.
Another source of violence is the oligarchy of local 'landowners', who behave like 'coroneles' (rural overlords). They react violently to the new Guarani tactic of moving on to the land stolen from them and setting up camps there.(Let's call it like it really is.)
Elders in the Guarani community have been brutally stabbed and beaten to death, Terena said. With land values rising due to the expansion of soybean and sugarcane cultivation, "even 100 hectares are reason enough to fight over", Terena said. Link
Enjoy your Ethanol. _________________ In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1734 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:55 am Post subject: Re: BRAZIL: Colonialism Provokes Murders of Indigenous Peopl
Cid_Yama wrote:
No, it's plain old theft, oppression and murder.
I couldn't have put it better. It is incumbent on us who have an understanding of the true forces in society to stand by the facts. The enslavement of individuals for the pursuit of profit is nothing other than theft of their labour for the accumulation of capital. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
The Brazilian government has announced a huge rise in the rate of Amazon deforestation, months after celebrating its success in achieving a reduction.
In the last five months of 2007, 3,235 sq km (1,250 sq miles) were lost.
Gilberto Camara, whose National Institute of Space Research provides satellite imaging of the Amazon, said the figure was unprecedented. "We've never before detected such a high deforestation rate at this time of year," he said.
His concern, outlined during a press conference in Brasilia on Wednesday, was echoed by Environment Minister Marina Silva. Ms Silva said the rise in the price of commodities such as soya could have influenced the rate of forest clearing, as more and more farmers saw the Amazon as a source of cheap land.
"The economic reality of these states indicate that these activities impact, without a shadow of a doubt, on the forest," she said.
The monthly rate of deforestation saw a big rise from 243 sq km (94 sq miles) in August to 948 sq km (366 sq miles) in December.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Mar 04, 2007 Posts: 504 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:37 am Post subject: Re: Brazil reports huge rise in Amazon deforestation
Quote:
Ms Silva said the rise in the price of commodities such as soya could have influenced the rate of forest clearing, as more and more farmers saw the Amazon as a source of cheap land.
So it all comes back to food. I can't wait to hear someone in power say the word "overpopulation."
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4279 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Brazil reports huge rise in Amazon deforestation
No crap. Nobody will ever say what really is the cause. They have to sugar coat everything. Just wait, that tropical climate can harbor all sorts of nasty things and sooner or later the beans and corn will get hit by something, causing a crop loss.
Its really RETARDED to be mowing down huge swaths of a forest that COULD contain drugs, foods that could cure things. There are so many unknown plants and animals down there. I know Americans did much the same to Iowa and most other areas of the US, but knowing what we know its too bad. I wonder when these areas are cut down, if they are left vacant, what will grow back? I'm guessing it would take a while, but sooner or later you'd have some sort of forest grow back...but without the biodiversity you once had. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
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