I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 9:46 am Post subject: Re: OPEC Cat/Mouse "These aren't the Droids you're look
MrBill wrote:
I am not sure OPEC is or is not lying about their own spare production or reserves capability because I am not sure they know for certain themselves?
Good point. Reminds me what Chris Vernon of The Oil Drum was telling me the other day: that oil companies were using the data from The Oil Drum because it was more reliable than their paid experts.
MrBill wrote:
That is to say that worldwide demand is strong enough to support these higher prices, while there is no physical shortage that would cause wholesale switching to the next best alternative.
The basic law of supply and demand tells you that, when prices rise, it's because some people didn't get what they wanted because they couldn't afford the high prices. Then, the people that don't get what they want are usually the poorest ones. The oil prices have affected mostly the demand in the poorest countries, and they haven't switched to gas because they're too poor to do the switch.
Quote:
"There is no relationship between the fundamentals today and the price,'' said al-Naimi, director of oil policy for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' largest producer, at a conference in Singapore today. "There is a mismatch and anyone that tells you otherwise is wrong.''
They have been saying that for the last three years. I still have a press cutting where Youngiatoro (or whatever was his name, president of the OPEC then), said that prices at $30 were crazy, and unsupported by any fundamentals. _________________ What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:18 am Post subject: Re: OPEC Cat/Mouse "These aren't the Droids you're look
Oil prices have been destroying demand for their product around the globe for 2-3 years running.
And I'm supposed to believe they are holding back production, while oil prices are driving consumers away in droves right now?
Every stripper well in sight is pumping around here. If it produces 1 barrel/day it's operating.
But OPEC... a collection of nation-state financial interests, is just tossing billions in profit betting on higher prices later?
I call BS on that.
No way that group of greedy, selfish capitalists is going to let tomorrow's potential interfere with today's profits.
No freak-in way. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:33 am Post subject: Re: OPEC Cat/Mouse "These aren't the Droids you're look
Doly wrote:
Quote:
The basic law of supply and demand tells you that, when prices rise, it's because some people didn't get what they wanted because they couldn't afford the high prices. Then, the people that don't get what they want are usually the poorest ones. The oil prices have affected mostly the demand in the poorest countries, and they haven't switched to gas because they're too poor to do the switch.
Taken to its extreme any price above zero starts to ration demand. There are those in Mali that cannot afford $5 per year to attend school even though there is a demand for them to get an education.
The fact is that despite higher world prices for crude that demand is still expanding. Two-thirds of demand increase has been coming from Chindia according to the IEA. That means there is enough economic activity on aggregrate to afford more demand in absolute terms.
Any demand destruction from energy higher prices - say using charcoal in Madagasgar instead of cleaner burning natural gas or even heating oil - has come from 'potential demand'. The demand that would have occured had the price been lower. But in their case that might have been below $15 per barrel or less in real terms.
If crude was still $15 per barrel then actual demand would be significantly higher than the current 86 mbpd that we are witnessing with prices near $95 per barrel. But why has nat gas not kept pace at least in middle income countries? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2007 4:23 pm Post subject: Oil Movements: OPEC Shipments Slip at Year End
After staying very level for the first three weeks of December, Oil Movements now expects OPEC oil exports to decline some at year end. Granted they say this is a seasonal decline, which may be true but perhaps is coming a week or two earlier than normal. Oil Movements indicated that this is the first fall in crude oil shipments from OPEC since August 9.
Caution: Oil Movements tries to measures actual shipments, not production, and there is no seasonal adjustment factor in their reports.
The first link was found by news editor Leanan.
Oil prices rise after tanker tracking firm predicts OPEC oil shipments will fall
Quote:
Oil prices rose Thursday after an oil tanker tracking firm predicted OPEC oil shipments are falling for the first time since August.
Oil Movements, a British research firm, said it expects crude shipments from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will fall by 230,000 barrels a day to 24.2 million barrels a day during the four weeks ending Jan. 5, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
The report reverses earlier Oil Movements forecasts that predicted oil shipments were on the rise.
Quote:
12/20/07 Oster Dow Jones Dow Jones & Company, Inc. December 20, 2007
DJ OPEC Exports To Fall For First Time In 5 Mos - Oil Movements
Dec 20, 2007 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- LONDON (Dow Jones)-Crude oil shipments from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are projected to fall for the first time since Aug. 9 due to seasonal factors, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
OPEC shipments are expected to fall 230,000 barrels a day to 24.24 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 5 compared with 24.47 million barrels a day in the four-week period to Dec. 29, Oil Movements said.
"It's a completely seasonal event. It represents the end of the long-haul, westbound crude sailings from the Gulf," as the bulk of shipments for the northern hemisphere's winter season begin to taper off, said Roy Mason, head of the consultancy.
Sailings from OPEC's Middle Eastern members are expected to fall by 220,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 5 to 17.35 million barrels a day, Mason said.
OPEC crude shipments were down 120,000 barrels a day from the same period last year, but Mason said that was because, "last year at this time there was a rally."
Earlier this month OPEC, deciding that global oil markets have enough crude and that current price levels aren't likely to tip economies in the U.S. and Europe, under strain from recent financial woes, into recession, agreed to keep oil production on hold.
[no link] _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2007 4:50 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements: OPEC Shipments Slip at Year End
A couple of months back, The Oil Drum posted a statistical analysis showing that deviations from the trend in oil production were negatively correlated from one month to two months later.
In other words, if oil sproduction are relatively high in month 0, they tend to correlate in month 1, but chances are they will be relatively low in month 2.
This makes sense if we figure that OPEC and all other producers are already producing at the maximum that they can do so on any kind of a sustainable basis. Thus, if they decide to markedly increase production for a short time, in order to calm the markets, they will be forced to cut back in about two months.
This observation by Oil Movements makes sense in that context. OPEC increased production in October/November in order to make the markets happy, and now they have to cut back, because they've been overproducing.
Anyone else have another interpretation? _________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
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