if every car would be a plugin hybrid with a 90km electric only range, oil consumption in the transport sector of germany could be halved and germany needs to consume only 10% more electricity;
to keep the cost at todays levels (europe levels, which are 1,5-2 times as much then those in USA), the cost of Li accumulators has to be halved; (industry is even promising more)
the study also says, that the step to 100% electric cars would be more difficult,
{in my opinion this isn't needed, since this little bit of oil could be replaced by biofuels, synthetic fuels;}
to keep it short, it really seems that individual mobility will be affordable at todays levels even without oil;
the stuy itself is good, our group did some verifications and we didn't find real weak points
if every car would be a plugin hybrid with a 90km electric only range, oil consumption in the transport sector of germany could be halved and germany needs to consume only 10% more electricity;
to keep the cost at todays levels (europe levels, which are 1,5-2 times as much then those in USA), the cost of Li accumulators has to be halved; (industry is even promising more)
the study also says, that the step to 100% electric cars would be more difficult,
{in my opinion this isn't needed, since this little bit of oil could be replaced by biofuels, synthetic fuels;}
to keep it short, it really seems that individual mobility will be affordable at todays levels even without oil;
the stuy itself is good, our group did some verifications and we didn't find real weak points
I find it hard to believe that converting every car to a plug-in hybrid would only require Germany to produce 10% more electricity than it currently does.
The cost an availability of the material used in the battery is a very big problem. Industry might be promising to lower the cost, but they often fail to deliver on their promises! is there enough lithium/nickel or any other materials these batteries are made from to replace the conventional engine? If people started converting en masse then costs would surely rise
Another issue is the lifetime of these batteries, and how to dispose of them once they're knackered. I've heard that the Prius battery is basically dead after 130,000km, and that nobody knows how to dipose of the battery in an environmentally friendly way.
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
Quote:
I find it hard to believe that converting every car to a plug-in hybrid would only require Germany to produce 10% more electricity than it currently does.
because it seems that a plugin hybrid on short trips is not only 3 times, but more then 4 to 6 times as efficient then a normale car with ICE
germany uses around 500Twh in gasoline,
he argues that 250Twh of gasoline could be replaced with 60Twh of electricity;
germany uses 600Twh in electricity a years;
Quote:
The cost an availability of the material used in the battery is a very big problem. Industry might be promising to lower the cost, but they often fail to deliver on their promises!
a Li accumulator with a durability of 3000cycles , 3-500$/kwh and more then 100Wh/kgr could solve a lot of problems ...
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
bonjaski wrote:
to keep it short, it really seems that individual mobility will be affordable at todays levels even without oil;
Of course. The concept that peak oil will force Americans from the roadways is a favorite dogma however, perhaps started by SUV or suburbia haters?
I like EV's better than PHEV's though, and V2G's are better yet, but a little farther in the future.
bonjaski wrote:
the stuy itself is good, our group did some verifications and we didn't find real weak points
Thats because there aren't any weak points beyond how cleanly you create your electricity. The invention of random transport being powered by crude is one of the dumber things mankind has ever dreamed up. Like heating your house by burning $100 bills in an open fireplace, the inefficiencies are simply staggering. Crude should be left to chemical feedstock and lubricating antique Swiss watches.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 266 Location: San Francisco, CA
Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
[quote="auscanman"]
bonjaski wrote:
Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumption in Germany
The cost an availability of the material used in the battery is a very big problem. Industry might be promising to lower the cost, but they often fail to deliver on their promises! is there enough lithium/nickel or any other materials these batteries are made from to replace the conventional engine? If people started converting en masse then costs would surely rise
Another issue is the lifetime of these batteries, and how to dispose of them once they're knackered. I've heard that the Prius battery is basically dead after 130,000km, and that nobody knows how to dipose of the battery in an environmentally friendly way.
This logic I cannot understand. We ALREADY have millions of vehicles containing all these types of materials being produced on the road. Why would gradually moving to producing more batteries (which we are already making billions of for laptops, power equipment, etc.) cause that much of an impact? It's not like with hydrogen cars using a scarce and expensive metal like platinum.
How often do hybrid batteries need replacing? Is replacement expensive and disposal an environmental problem?
The hybrid battery packs are designed to last for the lifetime of the vehicle, somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 miles, probably a whole lot longer. The warranty covers the batteries for between eight and ten years, depending on the car maker.
Battery toxicity is a concern, althoug today's hybrids use NiMH batteries, not the environmentally problematic rechargeable nickel cadmium. "Nickel metal hydride batteries are benign. They can be fully recycled," says Ron Cogan, editor of the Green Car Journal. Toyota and Honda say that they will recycle dead batteries and that disposal will pose no toxic hazards. Toyota puts a phone number on each battery, and they pay a $200 "bounty" for each battery to help ensure that it will be properly recycled.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
misterno wrote:
90% of the growth of oil comsumption is projected to be from India and China
And I do not think you can force them to buy these expensive hybrids.
We dont have to force them to use hybrids, but we do not have to compete with them for oil. As oil demand in india and china grow fuel prices will certainly continue to increase with increased demand.
Electric transportation can help diversify the source of energy for transportation. Plugin hybrids make sense, but why not battery electric vehicles supported with electrifed roads on major routes. This will resolve the range and charge up time of battery electric vehicles. Since electric roads will only be place on major roads (were kids do not play on the street) the infrastructure will be managable and can help battery electric vehicles become a reality.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:11 pm Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
Fabian wrote:
misterno wrote:
90% of the growth of oil comsumption is projected to be from India and China
And I do not think you can force them to buy these expensive hybrids.
We dont have to force them to use hybrids, but we do not have to compete with them for oil. As oil demand in india and china grow fuel prices will certainly continue to increase with increased demand.
Electric transportation can help diversify the source of energy for transportation. Plugin hybrids make sense, but why not battery electric vehicles supported with electrifed roads on major routes. This will resolve the range and charge up time of battery electric vehicles. Since electric roads will only be place on major roads (were kids do not play on the street) the infrastructure will be managable and can help battery electric vehicles become a reality.
If you're going to go to the cost of putting catenary (or third rail) power lines in, you might as well throw two or four steel rails underneath them. I hear the rest of the developed world calls these wonders "railroads". _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3765 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:55 am Post subject: Re: Effect of pluginhybrids with 90km range on oil consumpti
I already think of electric cars as "personal trolleys". Instead of a constant supply of electricity coming through the rail, the power is accumulated when the car is stopped. At first obviously that means overnight charging. But creating a charging station infrastructure would be very easy, much easier than desigining a custom 3rd rail for EVs.
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