If you have any other thing to add, wish to help or can supply some data on things that you THINK that can work (with data) please add them to the thread.
Most all the data I use is from the BP Statistical Review, so no problem.
As for your forecasts, peak predictions and/or decline curves, easily generated from other threads in this section so no problem either.
Don't know about uranium.
But the question is, what will be your "response variable", in other words, once you put in the projections on energy usage, forecasts, rate of transfer between energy sources, EROEI, etc, etc, what will be the output?
Response variable will be the time and growth rate needed for alternative energies to be implented. From this you will be able to conclude what kind of landing is possible.
Okay. Got another question (friendly and supportive).
So your real "dependent variable" is "landing".
You will test various alternate energy growth rates (independent variable), over time (independent variable) given some assumptions about expected oil peak and other energy sources (independent variables) to see the effects on "landing" (dependent variable).
It will depend on the amount of conservation and efficiency possible i think.
Didn't figure everything out yet. I usually do that and get more think patterns when i am working on something like it.
I'd say a soft landing is one in which we can keep most of the luxuries we have now by conservation and efficiency, some negative growth and a small contraction of the population. It also depends on the country ofcourse were you live.
Ah, then "landing" might be defined in several ways: population loss, per-capita GDP, maybe even some measurement like life expectancy.
SPSS, in my experience (which was from back in the punch card days) should be good at this. Using the historical data for the independent variables, it will compute for you the equation for each of the above dependent variables. From that, simple to construct a spreadsheet with the forecast oil, coal and gas production, and using the equation that SPSS gives you, project the population, per capita GDP or whatever else you want. You put in different forecasts, and the spreadsheet gives you different estimates of all of the above dependent variables.
The tricky part will be the interperetation, of course.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:12 pm Post subject: data dump part 1
col
1 year
2 oil production gb
3 global life expectancy yrs
4 population billions
5 global gdp trillion 1995 dollars
6 gas production bcm
7 coal prod tons
8 nuclear trillion watt=hrs
9 hydro milllion ton oil equivalent
Nice, were are you're figures from for gas and coal reserves?
The hubbert coal peak was scheduled around 2032 your peak is around 2025. And weren't gas reserves credited to be somewhere around 6000 Mcm? According to IEA ofcourse so i have no clue if this is credible or not. Are these Laherrere gas figures?
I'll start working on my stuff on friday, got some spare time for it this weekend.
The gas reserves per the model above are currently 178.15 tcm. This value makes the curve fit best. The peak date and URR for gas of 262 tcm are from Campbell. The BP energy review estimates current reserves of 175.15 tcm, so I am not ready to say this is too far off.
For coal, the value in the model for current reserves above is 613488 mt, which also makes the model fit best. The BP energy review value is 984,453 mt.
The curve below is adjusted to give a current reserve value of 1,115,000 mt which is closer and does a little better with the current productioin which is 5100 mt/yr, and gives the same peak. I don't know too much about coal. Unlike for oil, the curve is so flat it is hard to model.
If you have a better source of data no problem to make a new curve.
I don't know if it is useful for you but the last OCDE report have put their economical forecast model in annexe. They made some oil price predictions based on different scenarios.
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