For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1972 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 6:34 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Dezakin wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
the tar sands which can support more than 5 mbpd
From the estimates I've seen, 5 mbpd is optimistic. This seems reasonable, given that the best deposits are already being mined. As the deposits become poorer, it will take more effort and energy to simply produce as much oil as now. The net energy will also decrease. So it seems wishful thinking that tar sands will ever provide more than a tiny fraction of what conventional is now. I think Canadian tar sands is at little more than 1 mbpd, now.
The reason 5mbpd is optimistic is because most capital is tied up in other oil production and labor bottlenecks, not lack of resources. There aren't problems of 'field exhaustion' in the tar sands because most of it is surface mining which largely has the same quality of ore. Most of the in-situ methods haven't been deployed yet.
I doubt it will reach much more than 5mbpd simply because conventional oil decline wont be rapid enough to predicate a massive rush to the tar sands.
That doesn't seem like a good reason. Are you suggesting that a slow decline will stop, at some stage or that the world will simply not need much oil, by the time tar sands ramps up to 5mbpd.
I'm also not sure about the tar sands being uniform. It would be odd, indeed, if these natural formations were uniform in quality and accessibility. So you have any references for the uniformity claim?
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
When you have reserves in the hundreds of billions of barrels accessible by surface mining, and resources in the trillions of barrrels potentially accessible with advanced in-situ techniques, you can set the flow rate as high as capital allows.
With surface mining its simply a matter of building more trucks. With In situ techniques its often a matter of simply building more infrastructure.
A 20.6% increase in energy cost over the last 12 months ending Oct ’07 hardly seems inconsequential, JD.
And of course the graph first posted hardly takes in the entire picture - but that is par for this particular brand of propaganda I suppose.
At some point when the graph of total liquids looks like the one posted, I’ll guess a 20.6%/year increase will seem like the good old days.
Actually, the graph of liquids looks almost exactly like the one for oil. See for yourself:
Crude oil:
Liquids:
In fact, the statistics wizards over at the Oil Drum are pretty sure that that little uptick at the end of the liquids chart is just noise. So we haven't seen any real growth in liquids for years now.
Compare with the latest stats on world economic growth from the U.N.:
So how is it that the world economy is growing with declining oil production, and flat liquids production? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought a halt in oil/liquids growth was supposed to halt economic growth, you know like "shortonoil" says:
Quote:
The end of oil production growth, translates to the end of economic growth, and thus the end to monetary growth.
We've seen the end of oil production growth, and the economy keeps growing unabated. Pretty big glitch there, peak oilies.
Oh, and hey Aaron, when you get done wiping your butt, can you fix the name of the site? Apparently the peak oilers have given up on peak oil, and now are concerned with "peak liquids". In the interests of accuracy and full disclosure, you'll need to change the name to "Peak Liquid News and Message Boards". _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Last edited by JohnDenver on Tue Dec 11, 2007 8:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 8:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
TheDude wrote:
Like Pheba says you need to think on longer time scales than the next minute or two. And people like her are right to be angry about being squeezed out of making a living by this mess.
Pheba is producing beef -- the SUV of foods. So it's not going to be any big surprise if she gets squeezed right out of business. Peak oil will be a dramatic transition, something like the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a moth, or the way little scurrying mammals pulled a fast one on the dinosaurs. Some segments of the economy will wither and die, and others will boom explosively, stealing the niches of the previously dominant industries. People will shift from SUVs to mopeds, from ICEs to EVs, and from beef to chicken or tofu. The important thing is to be flexible/mobile and adapt. If you get screwed in the transition, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Capitalism is a competitive, dynamic system. You snooze, you lose. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6374 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
JohnDenver wrote:
Actually, the graph of liquids looks almost exactly like the one for oil. See for yourself:
Compare with the latest stats on world economic growth from the U.N.:
(sorry the link didn’t work for me)
If those numbers are in US$ that is no suprise.
Actually monetary growth is certainly quit robust – certainly the US money supply is – what level would the GDP and stock markets need to be to match 2000 levels when adjusted for inflation/deflation/whatever the term is?
Have you noticed the value of the US$ lately? Perhaps the economy is not too healthy due to cost of energy, food, raw materials and such but the old statisticians and printers kinda think the more dollars pooping out the better?
Kinda like a calf with the squirts! He is obviously eating or he wouldn’t be shitting so everything is OK!
To your graphs; it looks like liquids are still trending up – could be just my eye though. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
killJOY wrote:
Quote:
One elderly man who called Midcoast Maine Community Action told receptionist Candy Downs that he was keeping warm by staying under the covers of a bed and running a hair dryer.
These heart-rending stories get trotted out every time they need to shill for welfare budget hikes. Which isn't to say that some assistance may be in order. But that assistance should be contingent on strict energy education and monitoring. It's actually quite easy to keep one person warm for pennies a day, if you learn the proper techniques. For gods sakes, people sleep on the side of Mt. Everest without a heater. What was the guy wearing? His underwear? Hello!!!
I can see where you might be upset, though. An addled old man with a hairdryer is pretty f-ing far from the collapse of the U.S. gubmint that you're hoping for:
"I don't hate America, but I do hate the government. I can't wait for it to collapse." --killJOY _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
JD remind me. What is your point anyway? Is it that you are a smart ass or just a smartass? _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6141 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
pstarr wrote:
JD remind me. What is your point anyway?
Yes, I'd like to see this rambling discussion get boiled down to the point, too. I have the feeling that once that point gets isolated, it becomes easily squashable. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Heineken wrote:
pstarr wrote:
JD remind me. What is your point anyway?
Yes, I'd like to see this rambling discussion get boiled down to the point, too. I have the feeling that once that point gets isolated, it becomes easily squashable.
I believe the point of this, as with all of his posts, is that JD likes to hear his own virtual vocal cords hum _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Last edited by pstarr on Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Pops wrote:
pstarr wrote:
JD remind me. What is your point anyway?
Actually I thought JD's quote of above was quite on point.
He may recant tomorrow as may I …
You are not referring to this post where the Smart Ass Cornie reveals his true and personal concerns?
Pouchboy wrote:
Peak oil will be a dramatic transition, something like the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a moth, or the way little scurrying mammals pulled a fast one on the dinosaurs.
I wonder what lifeform the human race will transform into? And who gets to eat us? Vegetarians?
JD can't have it both ways. He needs to explain whether peak will be the 'non-starter' his blog assures us, or a massive dieoff like the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous? From his quote I have to guess he aligns himself with the little scurrying ones?
JD it might be time to cancel your prettty little blog due to lack of robust intelligent design. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Heineken wrote:
pstarr wrote:
JD remind me. What is your point anyway?
Yes, I'd like to see this rambling discussion get boiled down to the point, too. I have the feeling that once that point gets isolated, it becomes easily squashable.
Since early 2005, oil has peaked and global oil production has dropped by 2.5% (1.8mbd or roughly the amount of oil consumed by the UK). Meanwhile, the world economy has grown by 11%. Squash away. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
JD, I guess the obviousness is not obvious enough for you. The world hit peak oil discovery in the early 1960's. So this peak oil board should never have ever existed in the first place, or it should have existed in the 1950's as a monthly gathering of the Fraternal Order of Water Buffalo, or as a little blurb in the back of Popular Mechanics.
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