Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4527 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Eventually prices will increase to the point where OPEC countries won't be able to subsidize their own consumption anymore. They will be forced to reduce domestic consumption and sell more of their oil overseas.
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
Venezuela cannot fund its socialism if it can't export oil. At the end of the day, the poor will lose and the rich will win in the oil game. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Lanthanide wrote:
In the long run it will be the fuel shortages that screw us, not the prices.
If prices are high, people just use less and be more conservative. If the oil is simply not available, you have to turn to alternative methods, which are naturally not as desirable as the thing you are replacing or they would have been more popular to begin with.
I'd like to add to add to this.
A lot of techno-cornucopians like to believe that once we hit PO alternatives will "jump in" immediately. For example if peak is at 85 mbpd of oil and then drops to 84 next year then the world is short 1 mbpd. This shortage of 1 mbpd will NOT and will NEVER be replaced. People will have to reduce their consumption. I firmly believe "alternatives" will not "jump in.....if they even do!" until we get much further down the oil production slope perhaps at 50% and here's why.
There's a lot of "marginal" businesses with a very weak financial base. Struggling airline companies and truck drivers in the business of hauling lettuce 3,000 miles are prime examples. It would be "cheaper" to let these businesses die rather then use alternative energy to save them. Alternative energy is simply too expensive to be diverted to such "marginal" businesses.
However "marginal" businesses still == jobs and taxes and that's where the pain will come from....NOT high oil prices. It's an absolute fact, we're not going to be using windmills and solar panels to keep Las Vegas casinos open 24 hr post peak.
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Tyler_JC wrote:
WebHubbleTelescope wrote:
I don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 years ago.
Hmm?
He's saying that oil peaked 2 years ago and yet the global economy is still growing briskly.
No. That's not one I am saying. The idiot says we should stop talking about something because the peak already occurred. Jaysus, by that token we should have stopped talking about it 40 years ago, because it was preordained a peak would occur in the future based on a discovery peak.
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:24 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
WebHubbleTelescope wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
WebHubbleTelescope wrote:
I don't know what kind of crap JD is trying to pull. You fight empty rhetoric with empty rhetoric. By his logic we shouldn't even be talking about anything because it was all preordained almost 50 years ago.
Hmm?
He's saying that oil peaked 2 years ago and yet the global economy is still growing briskly.
No. That's not one I am saying. The idiot says we should stop talking about something because the peak already occurred. Jaysus, by that token we should have stopped talking about it 40 years ago, because it was preordained a peak would occur in the future based on a discovery peak.
Hmmm?
Sounds reasonable. But peak didn't occur BECAUSE of discovery peaking earlier, peak occurs because in a finite supply environment balanced against any variable demand rate, sooner or later, there will be a maximum rate by definition. The discovery peak occurred because of the same reason, seems like.
But I like your idea, we ought to stop worrying about it soon if only because it sure doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much.
yeah yeah I know, someone in a subsidized economy somewhere is ticked off they can't get their 20 cent/gallon gasoline, but thats a different problem.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
KillTheHumans wrote:
But I like your idea, we ought to stop worrying about it soon if only because it sure doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much.
So, because the current plateau "doesn't seem to be bothering anyone much," a continued plateau and subsequent decline will never bother anyone much? What is your reasoning behind that?
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 117 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:57 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Tyler_JC wrote:
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"? Why do you think oil is so cheap there right now as it is? Political demand.
If whoever is in charge of Venezuela ramps up the local oil prices to high, no matter how logical and sensible it is, they could end up out of the job, to be replaced by someone else who doesn't give a crap about exporting oil and just wants to keep it for the country itself. If this means the price for oil inside the country go up by only 50% (on 20c) instead of 300%, while the price for exported oil goes up 30% (on $3) - at least Venezuela wouldn't be suffering as much as everyone else.
This, I think, is the biggest worry - natural declines, that eventually lead to a political situation that dramatically reduces output over a short period of time. The markets simply have no way to adjust to something like that without causing pain.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4527 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Lanthanide wrote:
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"? Why do you think oil is so cheap there right now as it is? Political demand.
If whoever is in charge of Venezuela ramps up the local oil prices to high, no matter how logical and sensible it is, they could end up out of the job, to be replaced by someone else who doesn't give a crap about exporting oil and just wants to keep it for the country itself. If this means the price for oil inside the country go up by only 50% (on 20c) instead of 300%, while the price for exported oil goes up 30% (on $3) - at least Venezuela wouldn't be suffering as much as everyone else.
This, I think, is the biggest worry - natural declines, that eventually lead to a political situation that dramatically reduces output over a short period of time. The markets simply have no way to adjust to something like that without causing pain.
Who said the transition has to be pain free?
The argument was never cornucopia or collapse. This was a false choice created to discredit the optimists.
With the except of a few posters, everyone agrees that current trends are unsustainable.
That's why trends will change.
As for Venezuela, look at Nigeria. They export plenty of oil and keep their people in poverty. Sure, there is some civil unrest but it is a net win for the owners of the oil.
If making the population happy costs $10 billion but the lost oil revenue from an unhappy population is $5 billion...which option would you choose?
Moreover, they don't even have to choose! They can export oil at high prices and then spend the money on public transportation. This would develop Venezuela's economy, provide jobs/transportation, and allow them to continue getting hard currency.
Oil for transportation is not a necessity. Just because the world currently chooses to burn oil to move massive steel contraptions around doesn't mean it needs to. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Lanthanide wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"?
Why not, most of the Middle East has. _________________ Those that cannot do..... teach. Those that cannot teach......teach gym.-Jack black
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
jbeckton wrote:
Lanthanide wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"?
Why not, most of the Middle East has.
That's because the United States has military bases there and compliant puppet governments. Do you propose we do the same in Venezuela? Oh wait. We tried and failed. darn. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:41 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
pstarr wrote:
jbeckton wrote:
Lanthanide wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"?
Why not, most of the Middle East has.
That's because the United States has military bases there and compliant puppet governments. Do you propose we do the same in Venezuela? Oh wait. We tried and failed. darn.
Iran? _________________ Those that cannot do..... teach. Those that cannot teach......teach gym.-Jack black
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2836 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:45 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
pstarr wrote:
jbeckton wrote:
Lanthanide wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The idea that Venezuela will continue selling gasoline at 20 cents a gallon to the locals if it has no export revenue is based on faulty reasoning, IMHO. Oil will go to the most efficient users of the resource because they can extract the most surplus from it.
So you think the Venezuela people will just shrug and go "oh, ok, send all that oil overseas, and we'll all descend into poverty so America can keep its way of life"?
Why not, most of the Middle East has.
That's because the United States has military bases there and compliant puppet governments. Do you propose we do the same in Venezuela? Oh wait. We tried and failed. darn.
Did we really try all that hard? We still have 40 thousand troops on the Korean border - why ? Also, all those troops in Germany - why ? At some point there will be a reallocation of those troops to Africa and South America I think.
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
Every once in awhile I go to "peak oil debunked" and read the arguments to what is explored here. More so than this I try to read from a variety of sources at the lowest level possible. Like the blogs for people who actually work in an industry or the on line journals that have advertisers who cater to an industry's needs. Unfortunately, many of the "grand wazoo" figures or mainstream media folks seem to seek an immediate end to the world on cue so they can time advertising content and or sell books and videos, or other various myriad types of swag. (And if not there is the ego feeding needs of great personages to contend with as well.)
As is expected of course, sprinkled in, are the real data and gems, almost always as small flecks of gold in large pans of discards. If something is true, it is true, and it should pan out regardless of how you feel about it or who shouts the loudest or has the most esteemed credentials.
So why do I come to a site like this?
People and civilizations make their biggest blunders when they are at full tilt and consensus in a set of behaviors. We collectively have pursued this sort of behavior on a variety of fronts including finance, energy, agriculture, and in fact have convinced ourselves that resources are so vast that they are mathematically limited, but not practically so in terms of impact on the all important subset of humanity: those of us living right now. As an individual I like to see if various realities pass the sniff test and if not see what I might do to posture and position better than can be achieved by running in the herd.
Regardless of it's name, PO follows a format that allows free and open pursuit of the truth, and it has critical mass of a variety of engaged and informed people in the process of this search. PO debunked on the other hand, is interesting but reactive. It works in the direction of proving what is not, and my interest lies in the direction of what is. It will always be easier to be right about what is wrong or useless than to be right about what is attainable.
Since I am a relative neophyte here, is the JD from the PO debunked site the same as our beloved PO crooner, John Denver?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3330 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle
efarmer wrote:
Since I am a relative neophyte here, is the JD from the PO debunked site the same as our beloved PO crooner,
John Denver?
The one, the only. Don't know what the abbreviation was for, unless he got tired of people asking how he survived that plane crash.
His blog has an excellent layout - I tried to get some interest in a sitemap drummed up at TOD but it was deemed unworkable at the moment. Trying to find articles on a particular subject there is a bit hit and miss, whereas JD has it all laid out for easy consumption.
JD has great legs, too.
I'll sometimes trawl through there too a bit to read some counterarguments but if I really want some solid data on something like using CANDU reactors on the oil sands I look for articles at TOD.
Who are these "grand wazoo figures" or "mainstream media folks"
that want the world to end and are selling that swag? You have Heinberg or Savinar in mind there? They're hardly mainstream in any sense. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
"I believe this is the biggest social program any oil company ever has done in this country," Citgo chief executive Alejandro Granado said during the ceremony after riding in from Boston Harbor on the tanker ship delivering some of the oil. "Many people say we are doing politics, but life is politics. We are helping people. We are going to make sure that less people go to bed cold this winter."
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
