Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:57 pm Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
Ah yes, a while ago they said the peak was somewhere in 2004. Then they said it was in 2005. Now the latest peak is in July 2006. The peak is always shifting . . . in response to demand, as it should.
Incidentally, the EIA spreadsheet shows this for 2007:
Jan - 84,113 tbd
Feb - 84,338
Mar - 84,083
Apr - 84,594
May - 84,280
Jun - 84,430
July - 84,866
Aug - 83,888
Sep - 84,929
Notice the highest-producing month is the most recent one they have. Obviously some producers are scaling up supply in response to demand. That Sept 2007 figure is only 611 tbd below the July 2006 figure. If there's enough demand they should have little problem reaching and exceeding the previous high.
Last edited by Oil-Finder on Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:58 pm Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
Oil-Finder wrote:
That said absolutely nothing about the trillions of barrels of oil in unconventional sources. The peak oilers there seem to act as if it doesn't even exist.
Na, but im sure the shift from 30:1 to 3:1 EROEI will not cause any problems whatsoever, and we can just develop these trillions of barrels of oil using... oh wait, natural gas is running out too... oh well! we'll just suck it out of the ground with straws, who needs natural gas anyway right?
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:05 pm Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
Opies wrote:
Oil-Finder wrote:
That said absolutely nothing about the trillions of barrels of oil in unconventional sources. The peak oilers there seem to act as if it doesn't even exist.
Na, but im sure the shift from 30:1 to 3:1 EROEI will not cause any problems whatsoever, and we can just develop these trillions of barrels of oil using... oh wait, natural gas is running out too... oh well! we'll just suck it out of the ground with straws, who needs natural gas anyway right?
Haha! That's very funny! We're running out of natural gas, too!
But hey this is supposed to be about oil shale. Maybe some other thread.
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
^
No I haven't, though I've heard of it. Another "we should live close to the land as nature intended us" type of book, so I've heard. Like many peak oilers, you seem to advocate belief in peak oil not necessarily because we're actually going to start running out of oil, but because you actually want us to run out of oil so that we'll be forced to "live close to the land, as nature intended us." Sorry, but I regard that as dishonest: You advocate peak oil-ism as a guise for some other belief, not because you believe in it on its own merits. I have no problem with people who tell me they want us to stop using so much oil, regardless of how much we have left, because they think it's more environmentally friendly. But I do have a problem with people who are essentially lying to people about how much oil is left because they have some ulterior motive.
The kerogen in oil shale can be converted to synthetic crude oil through the chemical process of pyrolysis. When heated to a sufficiently high temperature a vapor is driven off which can be distilled (retorted) to yield a petroleum-like shale oil—a form of non-conventional oil—and combustible shale gas . . .
I read somewhere that oil shale can be converted into diesel and jet fuel. You can run a car on diesel, and in Europe about half the cars do exactly that. Thus, it is a viable alternative to conventional oil, given the right price.
Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:56 pm Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
Nicholai I replied to that question on the first page.
Oil-Finder wrote:
Duende wrote:
Cool!
Now all we have to do is find out how to turn rocks into oil in mass quantities without wasting more energy than we're getting from it!
According to this article here, Shell already says it can extract shale with a positive EROEI:
"All this cooling and heating, of course, consumes energy. Can it possibly be worth it? Yes, says Vinegar, who estimates ICP's ratio of energy produced to energy consumed will range from 3-to-1 to 7-to-1, depending upon the scale of the project. Moreover, the power needed to perform the heating and cooling will be generated entirely from natural gas produced onsite by the ICP process. Shell plans on building its own large power plant and is exploring ways to sequester any CO2 produced."
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 591 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
7-1 WOOOOOOO
ZOMG So sweet OMG OMG OMG
Oh wait, isnt it 30:1 in Saudi Arabia
How long would it take for that ratio to climb to 30:1?
I live in Alberta and we're having a hard time making 3 million barrels a day, never mind the 5 mbd that has been asked of us. Would China even leave this oil to an open market? Me thinks no.
The end of cheap oil is ova
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:07 am Post subject: Re: Western China oil shale: World's biggest?
Oil-Finder wrote:
As for the price, the oil shale article I linked above says:
"Vinegar has developed a cutting-edge technology that, according to Shell, will produce large quantities of high-quality oil without ravaging the local environment - and be profitable with prices around $30 a barrel. Now that oil is approaching $90, the odds on Shell's speculative bet are beginning to look awfully good."
I don't know about you, but $30/barrel is still pretty cheap if you ask me.
I am going to quote myself again for Nicholai's sake.
Is $30/barrel "expensive" oil? Not in my book.
Also, that EROEI is about the same as Alberta's oil sands.
The kerogen in oil shale can be converted to synthetic crude oil through the chemical process of pyrolysis. When heated to a sufficiently high temperature a vapor is driven off which can be distilled (retorted) to yield a petroleum-like shale oil—a form of non-conventional oil—and combustible shale gas . . .
I read somewhere that oil shale can be converted into diesel and jet fuel. You can run a car on diesel, and in Europe about half the cars do exactly that. Thus, it is a viable alternative to conventional oil, given the right price.
If shale is so viable, why is global production declining?
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