EIA's International Petroleum Monthly

joewp

So I found out that you can do trends in Excel, so I found the best fit for the data from January, 2005.

Ouch. It's gonna start to splatter far and wide, methinks.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

joewp

Just wanted to bump this to the top of a new page...

joewp

It's out again. It's December, so that means it's the November report, with data through September, 2007. Apparently, the buzy beavers of the world oil patch are working hard, because it shows a 981,000b/d increase over the sick number from August. But, world oil production as of September, 2007 is 73.5mb/d, or still 800,000 barrels a day below the record of May, 2005, off 1.08%. Here's the chart:

(Whoops, forgot to edit the title. It includes September's data)

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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

newman1979 · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 25, 2006 Posts: 100

The December IPM shows a small yoy rise in production due to Russia, Angola and Canada offsetting serial declines in Norway, Mexico, US, plus many small declines around the world. In 2004 the world produced 72,512 m/b/d of crude oil, 2005, 73,807 m/b/d, 2006, 73,539 m/b/d, and 2007, 73,134 m/b/d for 9 months. I estimate the year at 73,250 m/b/d for the full 2007 year. In addition to production declines, we have to assign a net export decline as well as EIA data shows a 2 year trend down.
EIA data shows demand growth here of 1.4% and IEA data shows world demand growth of 1-1.5% a year since 2004. China and India's domestic production are close to flat over this time frame and demand is skyrocketing. In addition, the quality of the oil produced and exported has declined as well.
In as much as 18 of 20 central banks of the industrial world are expanding M3 money supply by 13-22% a year to pay for the rising oil prices, it is reasonable to forecast that sellers control the market and will deal in mostly strong currencies primarily to keep domestic inflation down. This scenario will cause oil prices to go up in dollars and, unless interest rates go up, "up" could be a real big number.
Of course, if world crude oil production increases of 1 m/b/d suddenly show up, or demand falls off a small cliff, a different and lower price for light sweet oil would forecasted.

TonyPrep

I just noticed that the January version of the IPM got release on the 11th. It shows a significant increase in October, along the lines of the IEA report, but about a million bpd lower. At 85.605 mpd, October 2007 now ranks as the new peak, on EIA figures. As the previous peak (July 2006) was 85.467 mbpd, it's possible that this new peak could be revised under that old peak figure, but I suspect it will continue to just pip July 2006.

Crude oil + condensate still retains its May 2005 peak.

Currently, 2005 remains the peak year, with the 2007 average, so far, at 84.475 mbpd, less than the 2005 average of 84.631 mbpd, but 2007 could squeak in if production stays up. If production for November and December stays at October levels, the 2007 average would be 84.663 mbpd.

It's starting to look like oil companies have managed to squeeze a little more out, for now. How long can this last?

Valdemar

That's hardly a new peak to be happy about. It's not even in the hundreds of kilobarrels above the previous peak. That alone indicates that the absolute best the world has to offer so far is barely keeping with the pace set years ago.
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joewp

Others have mentioned the basics of the report, so I'll just post these graphs for the more visually inclined among you. Special bonus, a graph of the "all liquids" category, so the optimists can point to the little spike to the right.

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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

thor · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 450

TheDude

joewp - boss graphics. I gotta learn how to make those.

Your 01-08 graph makes my eyes swim, though. Choice of colors I'd bet. If I focus on the back of my monitor the bottom part of the graph seems to move upwards...creepy! You are becoming a very sleepy cornucopian...
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kmann · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 25, 2005 Posts: 318

New IPM out today. July '06 is still peak at 85,467 - Oct '07 got revised down to 85,451.

newman1979 · Heavy Crude Joined: Sep 25, 2006 Posts: 100

The Nov. monthly IPM indicates that the world crude oil production continues on a plateau almost 600,000 b/d below the production of 73,807 m/b/d in 2005. May 05 remains the peak month, and we are 30 months, with record oil prices along the way, without touching the May 05 production.
Angola and Azerbaijan were bright spots. Dark clouds remain over Mexico, Norway, and North Sea production.
World demand continues to grow at 1.5% to 2% a year.

joewp

The picture of a plateau:

That October bump is already starting to look like a last gasp. It didn't even make it to the last two mini-peaks, in December, 2005 and August, 2007. It's really starting to look like this is the best they can do. Shocked

_________________
Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2380 Location: ^NNE^

Would that Dr Bahktiari were alive to witness it! Goddess bless him.
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"By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price

joewp

Here's the "All Liquids" with a 12 month moving average:

Next month I'll just use this picture:

_________________
Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

FreddyH

Released our first Scenarios update for 2008 today. Peak Oil has moved to 91-mbd in 2013 (from December's 93mbd in 2017). Simmons forecast added. CERA & IHS failed our new reality check test and and become the 6th & 7th projections to be deleted in our recent purging activity. An ominous plateau (defined as within 2mbd of Peak) has developed since we deleted suspect Outlooks. As noted in the bold blue line, a tiny movement in peak rate can move the Peak Date from 2010 to 2024:

Scenarios notes
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