The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (New Leader)

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

I propose a contest to see who can predict most accurately the crude oil price for 2008.

Reason: Entertainment value, also because it is one thing to ridicule one of these pesky analysts for making a prediction you do not necessarily agree with, and it is quite another to make one for yourself.

Rules:

1. Anyone can participate. Everyone can only enter once. There is no charge to enter. Side bets are encouraged, however.

2. Each participant is to make three guesses: The high, the low, and the closing price on December 31, 2008. We will use the following spreadsheet from the EIA as the official price:

Official Table from the EIA

We will use the Cushing OK NYMEX Futures Contract #1 from this table. Note that this only gives daily closing prices, not interday prices, for those who wish to factor this into your calculations.

Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 31 price, which will be a few days into 2009.

3. I will be the official tabulator. Entries will be allowed until January 7, 2008. You can edit your entry if you want, before then, but I will record the official entries at that point. Maybe I can get the moderators to lock this thread or something.

4. The winner in each category (high, low and close) will be regarded with reverence, and generally declared to have superior intellect and/or clairvoyant powers, and get abundant respect from the fellow forum dwellers. Nothing bad will happen if you are wrong.

5. Feel free to use this thread to record the oil price predictions of some of the industry experts that might appear in the media in one form or another. I will record these as well, for reference purposes.

6. Other rules will be made up as we go.

7. Note that per the above, anyone who puts down a prediction has moral superiority and has extra artistic license to critique the predictions of any of the industry or media experts, at least for the next year. Also, feel free to include whatever your forecasting method, logic, or theory is, if you have one.

Let the forecasting begin!

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

STEO

The first forecast is from the US EIA, a taxpayer funded agency of the Federal Government. This is their current 2008 forecast from the Short Term Energy Outlook.

They have forecasted the "imported crude oil price" so I have calculated the red line, which is an adjustment based on the current WTI price differential.

But you can see their theory: Oil prices will decline steadily throughout the year, and be about $73 by December.

Tanada

What the heck, I am too opinionated NOT to participate Wink

High price 2008, $166.23

Average price 2008, $123.77

Low price 2008, $82.30

Method intuition aka WAG.
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as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov

Art_Vandelai

2008 Low: 88.40
2008 High: 132.66
2008 Close: 118.04
method...total guesswork - a series of random predictions that leads to approximately 15% compound growth over the next decade.

My guess for 2007 was way low (but better than the "experts"):

2007 low: 49.5 (actual 51.13)
2007 high 78.25 (actual so far 98.1 Cool

2007 close 73.5 (actual so far 90.49)

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

mekrob · Expert Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 2664

Low: $87.86
High: $142.92
Close: $123.83
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MrBill · Expert Joined: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 4925 Location: Eurasia

Okay, I will bite, even though it steals a bit of thunder from my annual poll in Trader's Corner.

High $137.22
Low $80.42
Closing Price $99.29
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The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 543

High: 98.50
Low: 82.00
Closing: 90.00

wisconsin_cur

high: 145.32
Low: 82.63

close: 115.55

Method: crumpled up various pieces of christmas wrapping paper with numbers written on them. draw them at random. type conclusions here.

I learned this method from an energy analyst that I ran into at a bar. I got him juiced up and then asked him how the big boys come to their predictions.

mekrob · Expert Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 2664

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3436

roccman

LoneSnark · Intermediate Crude Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 500

I have not put a lot of thought into it, so I reserve the right to modify these predictions:

Low: $50
High: $120
Close: $80

joewp

I was just looking here, which shows that current prices are 50% higher than last year at this time. Who am I to argue with the trend?

High: $175 (sometime in May)
Low: $89 (in January or February)
Close: $145

We're going into 70's style stagflation, world wide. All the signs are there, even Zeppelin might be doing a tour! Maybe this time I'll get to see them.
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