Do you want oil production to peak, sometime in the reasonably near future?
Yes I do
53%
[ 98 ]
No I don't
46%
[ 86 ]
Total Votes : 184
Author
Message
thuja Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-finder- are you serious? We haven't had someone who doesn't belive that worldwide oil production is peaking or near peaking for a long time...
I just haven't seen your posts yet- but that's wonderful...
Do you realize that everyone- even the major oil companies, the IEA and even the conservative think tanks believe we are nearing peak within a decade or two.
Now to your question- its fairly complex-
On one hand I don't want it to occur because I know that the decline rate will lead to immense hardship, chaos and die-off...
Do I want that? No.
But I also realize that the peaking of fossil fuels will mean less CO2 emissions and therefore will lead to less Greenhouse gasses and less Global Warming. This in turn will allow us to retain the neccesary ecological vital supports to allow for continued carrying capacity for all life. So on a greater level- it is a good thing".
So due to that my answer would be yes.
So its complex- I don't want unmitigated pain and horror throughou the 21st century. But I want to make sure there will be an Earth left to inhabit in the 22nd...
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
thuja,
As to the first half of your response, as I've already said before, this is not about whether anyone believes oil production will peak, or the technical merits thereof, this poll is about how many here want oil production to peak. So far a majority have voted yes.
As for the 2nd half of your reply, when I made the poll I actually had created a third "Other/Undecided" selection, but the stupid forum software cut that one off for some reason.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-finder I am impressed you would stick around here as you will find few to no allies- so kudos for you for sticking it out. On the other hand- I think your logic leaves something to be desired. It goes something like this-
Those who want Peak Oil (for ecological reasons/Global Warming) lasck the rationality to even acknowledge new finds or the potential for greater oil exploitation because they are so locked into their belief that they are blind, in denial and locked into a semi-religious belief system around the peaking of fossil fuels.
I would have to suggest the opposite- that anyone studying the issue with any degree of open-mindedness will soon see that it is evident that we have peaked or are very near the peaking of oil. This is not a desire led belief leading to blindness- it is self-evident and has been noted by...everybody (IEA, Oil companies, even CERA). You are completely alone. If on the other hand you ignore the reality of the situation then I would suggest that it is you in a state of semi-religious denial. Sorry...
So do some of us want the peak of oil and that colors our thinking? No we acknowledge the peaking and then see the possible advantages...
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1373 Location: New York area
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-Finder. I want oil production to peak soon AND I believe honestly that it will. Those two aren't mutually incompatible. If it turns out my beliefs are wrong I will accept that but I still want it to happen.
Note : I don't want billions to suffer, riots, rape, mayhem, genocide. Ideally I'd like to see a powerdown/efficient technofix/re-localization movement etc.
My desires (and personal actions) matter but only on a small scale since I can't directly control other people. My beliefs are independent of my desires. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:06 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-Finder wrote:
The only thing they really care about is that we stop producing and consuming so much oil.
That's not really true either. Sure the folks here talk a lot about how we need to do something about peak oil and carbon emissions. But mostly that's just their lips flapping. Basically, they're all a bunch of hypocrits living energy guzzling lifestyles, like Al Gore. They attack Bush&Cheney for waging a "War for Oil", and then fire up the SUV to go to a Peak Oil meeting. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2959 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Pixie wrote:
If oil were to not peak, our numbers and consumption would eventually be curtailed by some form of pollution, which would permanently poison our habitat.
Like this:
This is a crude poll. I see you tried to add at least a third option, oil-finder.
Oil peaking would be a good thing, as it's the only way to wake people up. If we are to sustain the experiment of society we need to curb growth and attendant energy demands/resource exploitation. Don't think that makes me a sociopath as you are semi-intimating. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
thuja wrote:
Oil-finder I am impressed you would stick around here as you will find few to no allies- so kudos for you for sticking it out. On the other hand- I think your logic leaves something to be desired. It goes something like this-
Those who want Peak Oil (for ecological reasons/Global Warming) lasck the rationality to even acknowledge new finds or the potential for greater oil exploitation because they are so locked into their belief that they are blind, in denial and locked into a semi-religious belief system around the peaking of fossil fuels.
I've had many debates on other internet forums with peak oilers who've responded exactly how I described. That's what I base my observation on. Yes, many of them behave exactly like that.
Quote:
I would have to suggest the opposite- that anyone studying the issue with any degree of open-mindedness will soon see that it is evident that we have peaked or are very near the peaking of oil. This is not a desire led belief leading to blindness- it is self-evident and has been noted by...everybody (IEA, Oil companies, even CERA). You are completely alone. If on the other hand you ignore the reality of the situation then I would suggest that it is you in a state of semi-religious denial. Sorry...
So do some of us want the peak of oil and that colors our thinking? No we acknowledge the peaking and then see the possible advantages...
Well your last paragraph is a sort-of middle ground (which, again, was an option the forum software cut off when I created the poll).
No I am not completely alone, there are plenty of non-peak oilers out there. If you want to know the details of my views, I am somewhere between a "gradual transformationist" and a "cornucopian." But that's off-topic.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:43 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-Finder wrote:
No I am not completely alone, there are plenty of non-peak oilers out there. If you want to know the details of my views, I am somewhere between a "gradual transformationist" and a "cornucopian." But that's off-topic.
I really don't know what a non-peak oiler looks like unless it is someone who believes in abiotic oil and the ever replenishing planetary creamy nugget of oil theory- which I really really hope you don't believe...
Otherwise everyone "believes" in Peak Oil- everyone- the only issue is when -and even that is just a matter of a couple decades and getting less by the day.
So again- the question "Do you want it to occur" is like asking "Do you want objects to fall to Earth?" It is not about want or not want- it is simply acknowledging reality.
But you point to a more interesting question..."Are you happy about the imminent decline in oil production?" That shows that it is a given that it is happening but how do you personally react to it.
Like I said- it is complex for me...sadness at the potential collapse of society and untold misery and death- versus the chance for sustaining the carrying capacity of the Earth down the road...
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:50 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
^
When I say "non-peak oiler" I mean someone who doesn't think oil production will peak any time in the foreseeable future. Or if it does, it will peak because a better alternative has been found.
Who knows - maybe they'll perfect a viable electric car someday and develop fusion power, and therefore oil production will decline because oil demand will decline. A "non-peak oiler" might hold a view like that. And/or perhaps they believe there is still another several trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the ground, and therefore we don't have to worry about oil production peaking for a very, very long time.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-Finder wrote:
^
When I say "non-peak oiler" I mean someone who doesn't think oil production will peak any time in the foreseeable future. Or if it does, it will peak because a better alternative has been found.
Who knows - maybe they'll perfect a viable electric car someday and develop fusion power, and therefore oil production will decline because oil demand will decline. A "non-peak oiler" might hold a view like that. And/or perhaps they believe there is still another several trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the ground, and therefore we don't have to worry about oil production peaking for a very, very long time.
Oil-finder I'm afraid you are very alone on this issue- when you say we don't have to worry about oi production peaking for a very very long time I wonder about how much research you have done on this issue. Even the most conservative folks suggest that we have a couple decades at best and most people who are realistic say we are in the plateau phase right now and perhaps have only a few years to go before serious declines set in.
So we're talking a range of 15-20 years between hardcore "doomers" and wild-eyed idealists. 20 years. Not a very very long time. In that view you will find next to no one...because there is no way that can be emprically validated. Again- Chevron, BP, even Exxon, the IEA, even CERA, are acknowledging imminent Peak Oil. Its not a question of when, its a question of impact...
If you want to be a good cornucopian, read some of John Denver's posts. He believes we can transition to an electric/nuclear world in the time we have left.
But the idea that oil production will not peak for a very very long time? I'm afraid you need to research the topic a bit more.
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
thuja, as I said I am very well versed on this from many debates on other internet forums. I've been doing this for at least 3-4 years.
No, CERA does not believe the peak is "imminent," in fact they say it's more like 30-40 years. I suspect that's also the case with some of the others on your list.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1472 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
Oil-Finder wrote:
thuja, as I said I am very well versed on this from many debates on other internet forums. I've been doing this for at least 3-4 years.
No, CERA does not believe the peak is "imminent," in fact they say it's more like 30-40 years. I suspect that's the case with some of the others on your list.
I'm sorry did you read the page you sent me? Here's a quote...
"The new report describes CERA’s liquids supply outlook as “not a view of endless abundance.” However, based on a range of potential scenarios and field-by-field analysis, CERA finds that not only will world oil production not peak before 2030"
2030. That's 22 years away. And CERA are the most "wild eyed" optimistic of the bunch. Again. Not a very very long time. Have another citation?
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
thuja wrote:
most people who are realistic say we are in the plateau phase right now and perhaps have only a few years to go before serious declines set in.
I have yet to see any credible evidence that "serious declines" are likely in the near future.
It's true that peak oilers widely believe oil production will collapse very soon (in the next few years), but that's likely due to the fact that they want it do so, as Oil-finder's poll shows. The hard evidence for a near-term steep decline is basically non-existent. _________________ Peak Oil Debunked
Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:31 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil: Do you want it to occur?
thuja wrote:
I'm sorry did you read the page you sent me? Here's a quote...
"The new report describes CERA’s liquids supply outlook as “not a view of endless abundance.” However, based on a range of potential scenarios and field-by-field analysis, CERA finds that not only will world oil production not peak before 2030"
2030. That's 22 years away. And CERA are the most "wild eyed" optimistic of the bunch. Again. Not a very very long time. Have another citation?
It is you who did not read it.
It says, "oil production not peak before 2030." In other words, it will peak after 2030. 22 years is just a bare minimum, after which production will plateau for quite a while.
This is hardly the "imminent" scenario you depicted them as saying.
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