Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 999 Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
My top ten list:
1. Bush will dump Laura after the elections, and move to Paraguay with Brittany (Spears).
2. After the elections, Hillary will dump Bill for Obama.
3. All debt will be written off. A clean slate for all...
4. China will sign contracts for all remaining coal/NG/Oil/uranium/lead/silver/concrete/etc.. remaining on the planet.
5. Post-mortem on Dick Cheney will reveal that aliens have been residing in his colon for more that 40 years.
6. Steven Colbert will be made Ambassador to Belgium.
7. GM will launch a new 1000 HP, twin turbo, 6WD armored vehicle.
8. US citizens will be encouraged to try a new diet regimen labeled as 'the ultimate secret' which consists of: caffiene, nicotine, alcohol.
9. A class '8' hurricane will rip the SE US a new one...
10. Putin gives it all up to join Al gore on the GW campaign trail. _________________ Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke
Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 62 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
some wild predictions...
The vote in Pakistan will be delayed 'til February.
Mobs will go wild in Kenya, burning and killing many people.
A high-ranking U.S. diplomat will be killed in Africa.
North Korea will push for the US to end its hostile policies toward that country.
Gangs will continue to attack Nigerian oil ports.
Saudi Arabia will get tough on dissenters who use the internet.
Justin Gaitlin will only be banned from competition for 4 years for doping violations.
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 1:20 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
Oil prices drop to $30.00 a barrel.
Ron Paul 08.
Paris Hilton declares she will run for the presidency in 2012.
Pornography successfully banned from the internet.
Microsoft goes bankrupt on account of Vista being complete crap.
Steve Fossett staggers out of the Nevada desert and wonders what all the fuss is about.
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 4:54 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
- Oil hits $130 at some point, but is ~$80 at year end due to recession. A Katrina or major geopolitical event would yank it to $160+ at peak.
- Disagree with Kunstler on peak oil awareness. Global warming will continue to rule...for the simple reason that you can "sell" global warming (buy carbon credits! buy Energy Star appliances! buy CF bulbs! etc.) and therefore GW will continue to dominate the media. At least till '09.
- Stock market takes a BIG hit, but will not be a total collapse due to propping up by the Fed. A sub-10,000 Dow at some point is very possible (likely?).
- The Democrat wins...Hillary/Obama at this point is a coin toss.
- Overall, nothing earth-shaking or collapse-inducing. The slow slide continues. 2009, on the other hand...bit more interesting.
- And finally...Patriots go 19-0 and win Super Bowl, Red Sox repeat, and the Celtics bring back past glory and win their first title in 21 years. Can you tell near which major city I grew up?
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 423 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
raober wrote:
- Overall, nothing earth-shaking or collapse-inducing. The slow slide continues. 2009, on the other hand...bit more interesting.
- And finally...Patriots go 19-0 and win Super Bowl, Red Sox repeat, and the Celtics bring back past glory and win their first title in 21 years. Can you tell near which major city I grew up?
I hope you're not right about the Sox. Go Cubs!
That said, I think we are in for a long slow slide as well. I don't think it will dawn on anyone (PO.com excepted) this year even though the "memes" of renewable energy and alternate fuel sources (read: ethanol) will continue to get lots of press. This is truly a train wreck in slow motion and I don't think the size of the problem will dawn on people until we try to emerge from the coming recession sometime post-2008. _________________ TANSTAAFL
Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
benzoil wrote:
I hope you're not right about the Sox. Go Cubs!
I would have absolutely no problem with the Cubbies winning it all. I've always had a soft spot for them...especially pre-2004 when they were the Sox's NL equivalent, more or less.
Don't forget, we averted apocalypse in 2004...the universe would not have been able to handle a Red Sox-Cubs Series. So, if we can dodge that, maybe we can dodge PO, GW, and everything else.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
I think that we will have more of the same. Oil will hover around $100/bl, ending slightly north of that figure. The economy will trudge along, the dollar will continue depreciating. But who knows? Most predictions can be completely derailed by an unexpected circumstance. We could get hit by a meteor, have another big terrorist attack or supply disruption. Who knows? All I know is that we are vulnerable to any supply interruption and the risk of that happening is increasing with time. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1183 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
Hmmmm...
1. More people start to talk recession; however economic activity stays on positive growth till end of 2008.
2. People will complain about prices.
3. Giulliani wins the election for president. As the only somewhat tolerated person, and least annoying to listen to.
4. Democrats increase their strength in both houses, to the confounding of all post election analysts.
5. Oil price slips a bit as some speculators get hosed.
6. Big hurricane hit, will be blamed on global warming again, while '07s storm history is conveniently left unremarked upon.
7. Dollar continues to slide, Ruble and Yuan renminbi strengthens.
8. Russia continues to enjoy increasing stability and prosperity.
9. Somewhere in the third world, a child dies of starvation because some acres of US corn replaced some acres of US wheat, which was then used to turn coal into gasoline, that was delivered in the fuel truck as the E85 that went into my neighbor's pickup truck.
10. I will get the flu. It will fail to kill me.... .this time. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 155 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:24 am Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
Oil will oscillate between $90-120 finishing year at $110 - reflecting near balance of recession and demand.
Clinton wins election with Obama as vice president
UK withdraws from Iraq but stays in Afghanistan. US stays in both
US goes into recession, UK growth less than 1% as is EU's
housing falls 10% in UK and commercial property 20%
Climate change becomes even more clear with polar cap minimum reducing further in Sept/Oct
following on from the double Cat 5 this year increased hurricane activity
oil production of light crudes drops. tar sand production increases. Mexico oil production drops further 10%+
big increase in Prius/bluemotion and similar high efficiency cars
massive increase in bankruptcies/insolvencies
Joined: Aug 15, 2006 Posts: 278 Location: 'bout 15 miles from EU's eastern border (thankfully on the inside)
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:43 am Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
AgentR wrote:
6. Big hurricane hit, will be blamed on global warming again, while '07s storm history is conveniently left unremarked upon.
'07 storm history conveniently unremarked? So global warming is only about US storms? How americentric is that?
Do you know how many cat 5 storms made landfall in '07? The fact that they hit Mexico, Belize and the carribean and not the US mainland was just pure luck, but stormwise the '07 season has seen record breaking activity.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1183 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
lys3rg0 wrote:
AgentR wrote:
6. Big hurricane hit, will be blamed on global warming again, while '07s storm history is conveniently left unremarked upon.
'07 storm history conveniently unremarked? So global warming is only about US storms? How americentric is that?
Extremely "americentric", and intentionally so.
Quote:
Do you know how many cat 5 storms made landfall in '07? The fact that they hit Mexico, Belize and the carribean and not the US mainland was just pure luck, but stormwise the '07 season has seen record breaking activity.
Hurricanes are *always* pure luck. You could have a very low activity year, that because of luck routing does incredible damage to the US coast, or you could have a high activity year that does no damage to the US or anyone else.
For the world, 2007 was pretty active, but for Joe Reporter in Atlanta, Georgia.... it was a nuthin,and will be reported as such, because he will be fired if he reveals anything more than passing interest in the fate of hurricane activity south of the country.
For the purposes of US climate debate... if a storm doesn't hit here, it might as well not have existed. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Petroleum in the ground is under tremendous pressure. The rocks that contain it are porous. If the oil had been there for millions of years the pressure would have dissipated long ago.
Studies show that any pressure built should be dissipated, bled off into surrounding rocks, within a few thousand years. The excessive pressures found in oil beds, therefore, refute the notion that their age is millions of years old. This gives evidence for the youthful age (less than 10,000 years) of the rock formations and the entrapped oil.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 423 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
namenick wrote:
Peak oil will be discovered to be a fraud because we will discover the truth. Oil is being made by god faster than we use it.
Ha ha. Why oil and not gold? Hey! Maybe that explains global warming. GOD is making all that CO2 faster than plants can absorb it. And how come he isn't making any more oil here in the US? We've been producing less and less oil since 1972. Maybe God loves the US less than Saudi Arabia.
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 11:19 pm Post subject: Re: What are your predictions for 2008?
benzoil wrote:
namenick wrote:
Peak oil will be discovered to be a fraud because we will discover the truth. Oil is being made by god faster than we use it.
Ha ha. Why oil and not gold? Hey! Maybe that explains global warming. GOD is making all that CO2 faster than plants can absorb it. And how come he isn't making any more oil here in the US? We've been producing less and less oil since 1972. Maybe God loves the US less than Saudi Arabia.
<sarcasm off>
Assuming that this thread is o.k. for a little humour light, I would think that according to the young earthers that it's very up in the air on whether there is a lot of oil remaining in the US. I've heard them say that there's lots of oil but there's no exploration and no extraction because (wait for it) the enviros are stopping it all. Hadn't you heard?
And on a more serilous note, this is the kind of crap we have to put up with from the denialists sometimes. It seems that if a good counter argument against peak oil is not available to them then they will dig up anything which might do the job.
I'm sort of hoping for some good informed arguments making the case against Peak oil on this forum. If it isn't here then it must not exist! But this is only my first day.
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