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skyemoor
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Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
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 Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:33 pm Post subject: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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While this is not necessarily 'new' news, it presents a quandry for those wanting to minimize their family's exposure to global warming risks by moving to northern areas that will become more moderate as the earth warms.
Science Daily Article
| Quote: | | Even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could produce as many direct fatalities as all of World War II and disrupt the global climate for a decade or more, with environmental effects that could be devastating for everyone on Earth, university researchers have found. |
| Quote: |
The potential devastation would be catastrophic and long term," said Richard Turco, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. |
Such an event could certainly create extreme hardship for those who had moved to colder climes in an effort to 'beat the rush' of a massive climate-induced migration.
The year without summer gives us an indication of similar results, though the effects regional nuclear war would last a decade, not just one year. The effects included colder weather (snowfall in June) resulting in loss of crops resulting in widespread malnutrition and starvation in many places.
Anyone else feel torn in their relocation choices by these competing risks?
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TheTurtle
Fission
Joined: May 14, 2005
Posts: 2123
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| skyemoor wrote: | | Anyone else feel torn in their relocation choices by these competing risks? |
IMO, the global climate is already "devastated". We're just starting to see the implications of that fact now.
My research has convinced me that global warming always precedes rapid onset ice age. I would therefore never consider moving further north than where I live now since I would rather not live under a couple miles of ice. 
I will admit, however, that I could be wrong and the ice age will not come upon us as quickly as I anticipate. I would therefore never try to convince anyone not to move north if they think it the better choice. In fact, were it not for my belief in a coming ice age, I would likely move to northern Wisconsin or UP Michigan, just because I really like those areas.
But ultimately, every choice we make is informed by competing risks.
Otherwise, there would be no need to choose. We would simply act.
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mos6507
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Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 3627
Location: Boston Suburbs
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| Isn't the direct impact of nuclear war bad enough without getting distracted by the effects of the climate? |
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TheTurtle
Fission
Joined: May 14, 2005
Posts: 2123
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| mos6507 wrote: | | Isn't the direct impact of nuclear war bad enough without getting distracted by the effects of the climate? |
 That's funny. I was originally going to respond to skyemoor's post by asking, "isn't the certain impact of climate change bad enough without getting distracted by possible nuclear war?"
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TheDude
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Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:07 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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They mention Richard Turco. Dunno if he was involved directly.
| Quote: | | Turco once headed a team including Toon and Carl Sagan that originally defined "nuclear winter." |
In other words, TTAPS (1990).
| Quote: | | The TTAPS study was widely reported and criticized in the media. Criticisms have not been supported by alternative model runs [1] [2]. Recent studies (2006) substantiate that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would lead to long lasting global cooling but in a less dramatic manner than the nuclear winter scenario. [1][2] |
They mention this study in the Wiki article, too. I'm a couple hundred miles from a big batch of primary targets, but I'm not moving. Pluses outweigh the minuses.
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steam_cannon
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Joined: Dec 28, 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:11 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| skyemoor wrote: | | Anyone else feel torn in their relocation choices by these competing risks? |
I'm not, but it is a fascinating scenario.
Nuclear war or not if whoever simply exploded their arsenal over an unpopulated area, they would defeat all the northern countries? Certainly a different way to think about things. And it would make good propaganda explaining the danger of small nuclear arsenals. Not that I'm a fan of propaganda, I'm just saying...
Scenarios like these are James Bond supervillain class scenarios. Some other similar ones might be terrorists purposefully destabilizing Clathrate deposites or undermine an unstable volcanic deposit so that if breaks off into the sea so the coasts of North America are destroyed by tsunami. Another one might be, to crack open the lava dome under yellowstone park. It may be sufficiently ripe for another supervolcano eruption with a little coaxing, which would destroy much of the US. But all those scenario's are a little far fetched.
Anyway, in the hands of men nuclear weapons are certainly dangerous things and have always opened up many dangerous possibilities. No doubt about that.
Last edited by steam_cannon on Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:36 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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skyemoor
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Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| Quote: | | The TTAPS study was widely reported and criticized in the media. Criticisms have not been supported by alternative model runs [1] [2]. |
In other words, the findings haven't been overturned. The references were to two studies referenced in the original Science Daily link at the beginning of this thread
| Quote: | | Recent studies (2006) substantiate that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would lead to long lasting global cooling but in a less dramatic manner than the nuclear winter scenario. [1][2] |
Same references to the regional nuclear conflict (the subject of this thread) vs. full scale global nuclear war. Note the text is from Wikipedia and the author(s) left off the last part of the sentence that should have said, "envisioned as a result of a full scale global nuclear conflict".
I'm not planning on much hope for survival in the event of a full scale nuclear war. I am interested in understanding what it would take to avoid the consequences of the projected climate disruption caused by a regional nuclear conflict.
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steam_cannon
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Joined: Dec 28, 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| skyemoor wrote: | | I'm not planning on much hope for survival in the event of a full scale nuclear war. I am interested in understanding what it would take to avoid the consequences of the projected climate disruption caused by a regional nuclear conflict. |
Probably this...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic30989.html |
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billp
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 11, 2005
Posts: 430
Location: albuquerque
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| Quote: | Nuclear winter is the answer to global warming.
Nelson DeMille
Wildfire Audio book. |
We formulated below poll question in April of 2007 but did not submit it.
| Quote: | USS Nimitz (CVN-68 ) departed San Diego on Monday April 2, 2007 for the Persian gulf.
Where will the Nimitz be on April 2, 2008?
1 Back in San Diego
2 Cruising
3 On the bottom
4 Vaporized |
We favor response 1.
We will push harder to get matters peacfully settle before they get worse.
Copy of poll question was sent to Nimitz museum staff along with a link to How the Iraq/Iran War Got Started with a request to please help get these unfortunate matters settled.
cheers
Think positive.
Maybe the crews on the Nimitz, Stennis, and Enterprise are aware of the problem and are working on peaceful settlement too?
Last edited by billp on Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:30 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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TheDude
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Posts: 3329
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| steam_cannon wrote: | | skyemoor wrote: | | I'm not planning on much hope for survival in the event of a full scale nuclear war. I am interested in understanding what it would take to avoid the consequences of the projected climate disruption caused by a regional nuclear conflict. |
Probably this...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic30989.html |
Don't forget a copy of this:
Free download!
Lots of simple survival structure plans, homebrew Geiger counters, what have you.
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe. |
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skyemoor
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Posts: 1415
Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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Just be clear, I'm not referring to a regional nuclear war where my person and habitation is in said region. I'm simply referring to understanding the mitigations of the climatic effects of a regional nuclear war between to distant countries, say Pakistan and India, and how that affects one's choice to move to a cooler climate ahead of the swarm of climate refugees.
For a dramatized perspective of such swarms, checkout "The Fire Next Time" from Netflix.
_________________
http://www.carfree.com
http://ecoplan.org/carshare/cs_index.htm
http://www.velomobile.de/GB/Advantages/advantages.html
Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur
He that lives upon hope will die fasting. --Benjamin Franklin |
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JPL
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 18, 2006
Posts: 1195
Location: Last outpost of Civilisation
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| TheTurtle wrote: | | My research has convinced me that global warming always precedes rapid onset ice age. I would therefore never consider moving further north than where I live now since I would rather not live under a couple miles of ice.. |
Interesting, I've recently read Lovelock's 'Revenge of Gaia' & what he seems to be saying is, things are different now because of the extra CO2 & methane. The Earth can't go back to a colder state because it is now locked into a heating spiral?
For point of interest, I'm currently selling up & planning to move about 1000 mile further North - not just because of the reasons in the book, but it's definitely a factor. Be interested in any counter-thesis (as you say, before I bury my grandchildren under 2 miles of ice)!
JP |
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dissident
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2006
Posts: 414
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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The impact of nuclear detonations is from the aerosols that they produce (CO2 production is a secondary factor) and which make it to the stratosphere (directly or from pyroconvection). Aerosols do not stay in the stratosphere for centuries like CO2. Volcanic explosions like Pinatubo are good reference points. Pinatubo introduced megatons worth of sulfate into the stratosphere directly. Two years later over 80% of it had sedimented out (SO2 --> H2SO4 --> growing sulfuric acid + water droplets). Soot and sulfate aerosol particles are much, much larger than molecules and they sediment, unlike gases like CO2. So the climate impact of nuclear war, regional or not, cannot be compared to global warming, which is a persistent change in composition that impacts the radiative equilibrium of the atmosphere.
Of course, in terms of human needs a couple of years of crop failure would be enough to wipe out hundreds of millions of people. |
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billp
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 11, 2005
Posts: 430
Location: albuquerque
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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| Quote: | | I am interested in understanding what it would take to avoid the consequences of the projected climate disruption caused by a regional nuclear conflict. |
Simple.
Settle.
Us cats want PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT. |
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alokin
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 24, 2007
Posts: 786
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| Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: Re: Regional Nuclear War Could Devastate Global Climate |
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You guys should not learn how to survive a nuclear war or think about settling in another region. You should get active and pressure your government.
You're yet suffering due to the over armament of the US. Is there any other developed country without social security, without health insurance, with so little holidays without paid maternity leave?
You pay for the weapons, every day. And you fear them, the Islamic world fears them Europe fears them. Your "defence" makes you living in fear and the rest of the world as well.
you remember when Gorbatchov offered you a big disarmament? |
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