Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
.
A common misunderstanding is to talk of oil as it was one thing ,
the present supply problem is the crashing supply of good oil , light low sulfur , beautiful stuff
the peak is well past for this grade , as it is for the coal equivalent gorgeous anthracite
what we have now is not so flash , heavy oil , full of H2S which is corrosive , explosive , toxic and stink of rotten eggs ...yuukkk ,
putting this in a catalytic reformer and you stuff your catalyst !!
Some expensive massaging is needed to make the stuff nice ,also being heavy it doesn't have so much of those C7 , C8 , C9 cuts to make gasoline easily , it need a fair bit of steam or catalytic cracking ....more costs
this is the plateau stuff , and we better like it because soon that's all we will have left ,
it's not so energetic , need more energy to get it and more energy to use
the coal equivalent is brown coal ,
during the down slope , the stuff used will be tars , bitumen , slops and oily rocks , wrung to get the last drips , dug or obtained at great cost
any rubbish which can be massaged as a fuel , and give a positive return on energy spend getting it ,
the coal equivalent is peat
as we journey along the consumption curve the energy obtained from a nominal barrel will in fact decrease
Hubbert was spot on , an people are dancing on the edge of the one hundred year depression
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 8:24 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
Thanks for posting. This is without doubt the post of the year so far and should win 'the most significant peak oil is really, really real post you dickhead deniers award' since PO.com began.
I'm quoting from the original link here - what beautiful prose this is..
Quote:
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil at $100 a barrel should give exporters every incentive to pump more, but their difficulty in doing so shows the world is struggling to sustain production.
A growing number of leading industry figures -- the CEOs of Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) among them -- now question mainstream forecasts for supply, suggesting the era of "plateau oil" is nearer than many in the business have admitted.
While global oil demand is projected to grow to more than 100 million barrels per day later this century, some argue it may not be possible to boost flows beyond the current rate of some 86 million bpd.
Supply still falls short even after so-called unconventional oils extracted from tar sands and converted from natural gas are taken into account, said Sadad al-Husseini, a former top official at state oil giant Saudi Aramco.
"Today's oil prices are high because there are limited new supplies," Husseini, who ran exploration and production at the Saudi state oil company from 1986-2002, told Reuters. "There's a history now. We're several years into level production."
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
kokoda wrote:
Plateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.
i'm fine with it. at least it doesn't allow for the substitution-obfuscation "we're not even close to running out of oil" argument.
in an expansion-dependent economy plateau means peak. attaching dramatic consequences to even a plateau allows no mistaking the seriousness of the situation.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2791 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
kokoda wrote:
Plateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.
Funny how they must invent that new description. Sure, if they had called it an "undulating plateau" I wouldn't have complained. That choice of words has been used for a long time.
But "plateau oil" just means "peak oil but we daredn't say it".
Pathetic.
By the way, "plateau oil" gives 2520 hits on google. "peak oil"? 2 410 000 hits. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1561 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 9:42 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
Starvid wrote:
kokoda wrote:
Plateau oil sounds so much better than peak oil.
Funny how they must invent that new description. Sure, if they had called it an "undulating plateau" I wouldn't have complained. That choice of words has been used for a long time.
But "plateau oil" just means "peak oil but we daredn't say it".
Pathetic.
By the way, "plateau oil" gives 2520 hits on google. "peak oil"? 2 410 000 hits.
Aaah- Wall Street Journal, Time, Reuters...
They are desperately trying to hold to a position that is falling apart...they want to separate themselves from us apocalyptic nutter butters by saying that we are reaching an undulating plateau- and it has nothing to do with geology...its simply geopolitics...nothing about infinite growth in a finite world...
But the fever is catching...2008 will be our year people. One hurricane, one pipeline explosion, one terrorist attack...away from shortages...
It won't be high prices- it will be shortages...and then people will really start asking the tough questions. Peak Oil will become the top campaign topic, along with the recession, in the summer of 08-
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:41 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
Quote:
Husseini says high prices will only sustain a production plateau of 85 million bpd for up to a decade. From then he sees the start of a long, gradual decline sinking the world's supply of oil and natural gas liquids to about 78 million bpd by 2030.
What do you folks think the chances are of that happening? My guess is that it's high by thirty to fifty percent. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:43 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
.
thuja " Peak Oil will become the top campaign topic, along with the recession, in the summer of 08- "
Oooohh nooo ! ..... denial all the way ,
the recession ..yes , high gas price .. yes , blame being spread by the bucket from oil sheiks to greedy speculators and multinationals ... of course
It is a fundamental tenet of the democratic system that the good folks who vote are blameless victims
If you want people to face up to their sins , It's not politic , it's religious revelations ,
It probably will come to that eventually but it will be way down the track
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1561 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:50 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
OK OK so maybe I'm being a tad optimistic-
People will scapegoat more than they want to look at real issues-
still- this one is going to be harder and harder and harder to deny...already the WSJournal, The Economist, Time and the Finacial Times are pciking up on it...I say we reach MSM awareness this year and it spreads to general awareness in 08- just a prediction...probably will be wrong...
Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:21 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
.
Yep , the third quarter of 2007 saw peak oil accepted by the best stream of economist
As a great big freight train turning the bend , they had some time tables ,
the prospect was a distinct possibility in a theoretical sense but now
they can hear it, see it ,smell it and feel the ground vibrating under their feet , the precise timing is unimportant
Think of earthquake prediction ,
running down Santa Monica boulevard screaming "it's coming " is not going to help much
best case enough people believe you to start a panic that is the last thing you want ,
the best way to be useful is to make the top of any administration understand exactly what is coming , so that they are braced for the shock ,
it will not help much but it will make the decisions eventually taken synchronized with events and will make a small vital difference for a lot of people at the most critical of time .... the plunge
Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil (Reuters)
Twilight said:
Quote:
A severe enough recession could deflate peak oil momentum nicely. The new line would be that oil has not peaked, demand was destroyed, supply will hit new highs once demand returns with an economic recovery, and so on. Don't count your chickens just yet, there could be a setback of two years or more.
This could happen all the way down. The economy contracts and oil demand drops. Then another contraction and more declines in demand. What will be interesting is that without an economy, oil will still be $100 per barrel.
An economist in 2540 might comment about our period: “It is interesting that they could not equate that running out of energy meant running out of money, and then they actually tried to compensate by just printing the stuff. The behavior of early man will probably always remain an enigma to us.”
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