Imagine China with half its population middle class

Denny

I was listening to financial commentator Petr Brieger today, and he mentioned that only 8% of China's population is middle class today. Its going up to 50% by 202, so this Boston Globe article says.

Now, just imagine if 50% of a future population of 1.5 billion is middle class. If it consumes only one-half, or even one-third of the per capita energy consumption of the U.S. middle class, how much energy that will be! Just huge.

Peter mentioned that 70% of the U.S. is middle class, so that is about 230 million. (Actually, I think he's on the high side but I am used to seeing the likes of Buffalo and Detroit, which do seem on the outs.)

Now if half of China's population consumed one-third of the American middle class example, that will exceed U.S. consumption.

So in our future world of 2020, between the U.S. and China that will represent one-half of the world's energy. How will that work out?

Also, Americans expect to do better too, I'd guess the U.S. government expects 90% of the population to grow into the middle class. Many immigrants working as cab drivers, and dish washers will find their kids graduating as doctors and engineers one day. So, much more demand yet.

It is hard to expect anything but armed conflict over oil in the world to come. Unless we get real smart, real fast with renewables.

I suspect Canada is even afraid of China, The Canadian prime minister, Stephen Harper, has been making a lot of alienating statements against China, perhaps he's afraid of China taking over the Canadian energy industry, and wants to create dissension against them.

Tyler_JC

Now how is China going to continue growing at 10% a year if Peak Oil means the end of economic growth?
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TheTurtle

You'll note in that article that it says the Chinese government hopes that they will reach the 50% mark by 2020. If you read statements - such as this one - put out by the Communist Party's Central Policy "Research" Office, you'll quickly see that their expectations have far less to do with any research than they do with touting the Party line.

Given the way the global economy is moving, I don't see how China could possibly make 50% of its population into middle class by 2020.
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TheTurtle

Denny

Maybe an even bigger challenge into the future for us western countries will be keeping 50% of our populations in middle class status.

kokoda · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2006 Posts: 422

Short of some sort of massive technological breakthrough such as nuclear fusion I don't think it is possible for the populations of counties like China and India to develop a huge middle class.

The growth is there at the moment ... but the question is whether or not it is sustainable.

spudbuddy · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 28, 2005 Posts: 150

I can well imagine the power of the western corporate wet dream at the thought of a market derived from one third of the population of the planet. (just imagine if a sizeable proportion of those could consume like Americans!)

If this ever came about, could one imagine this benefitting western workers? (while they're "raced" to the bottom...)
Could one imagine that this would be good for the health of the planet?

Dim rumors persist - float across the wide Pacific - about tens of thousands of protests, organized or otherwise - surfacing in a population that has been dicked around for some time now...
(indeed, since the opium wars, in one way or another.)

Looked at historically, a lot of hard working people have hardly had a chance to achieve anything remotely resembling a normal middle class, in the western sense....for divers generations.
This past three decades' worth of further abuse is just one more kink in a long chain.

Add to this the adoption of a truly western model (check out pictures of that famous model table-top "Shanghai of the Future" and marvel at its resemblence to a Manhattan times 10) and ponder how this will all be paid for.....and how it will ever meet its energy requirements.

A development model going in absolutely and entirely the wrong direction as far as sustainability is concerned.
Ironically, China doesn't have the North American highway fatality rate yet - not enough people drive. However, this shortfall is more than made up by killing people with bad air, bad water and toxic land.

Back to the protests. Used to be a time when the armies would march, colonize, dictate, exploit.....the colonial model, which largely died out some time after WW2.
This has become infinitely more simple, and a lot less messy and costly. All one need do now is to simply let loose the corporate planners, and globalize. The governments of globalized market potentials do most of the dirty work for the globalizers.

China (with India rushing to catch up) both wrestle with a horrific task: How to sustain a growing middle class that can compete successfully on a global scale, while holding at bay the awesome and terrible power of, at present, anywhere from 10 to 25 per cent of desperately poor populations.
In China's case, a revolution within recent memory proves that the deed can be accomplished.

Finally, I doubt that any historian could readily imagine this kind of growth coming about without conflict on a global scale over remaining resources, gathering value as their scarcity rises.
It's rather silly (following the economic models presently in place) - when one imagines a future "winner" of this conflict (assuming everything isn't just simply obliterated) - having preserved their place in the global scheme of things....discovering that there is no-one left to sell to!
Which just reinforces the idea that we're all in the same boat.
Now, if globalized relations could manage to promote that idea, we might collectively come to our senses!

vampyregirl · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 19, 2007 Posts: 329

Imagine China with half its population middle class. I think we will be seeing that quicker than most people realize. China's new middle class numbers well over 100 million. There is a yuppie class in China that didn't exist even 10 years ago. Analysts say if Chinese economic growth continues at current rates China in 10 years will surpass America as the worlds largest GDP.
The Red Dragon is climbing the ladder fast.

NoahsDove · Coal Joined: Jul 06, 2008 Posts: 12

With oil running out, whatever forecast about China's future is premature. Personally, I believe what's going on in China is too little too late.

Anyone watching Discovery Channel's story on China?

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppel/koppel.html