About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline

cipi604

http://www.aspousa.org/proceedings/houston/presentations/Chris%20Skrebowski%20megaprojects.pdf

Ayoob · Expert Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 1002

A 4% decline rate indicates an 18-year halving time. Daily oil flow is 50% lower at the end of one halving time.

Which, IMO, means the end of civilization as we know it today. If the halving time is long enough and the will is there to replace oil with nuclear, solar, wind, ocean power, and liquid ammonia (ask matt simmons, I just saw him mention it in an interview the other day and don't know crap about it), then maybe civilization can survive this event.

18 years. It's possible that a 4% decline rate could be replaced by alternatives. Expensive, not distributed as easily, and possibly insufficient... but possible.

americandream

Can you imagine the mammoth effort it will take to co-ordinate this farce of a planet of dysfunctional nations towards this end?

I can't. It's way off the meter of possibility for me.
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Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!

MD

The report delivers a mixed message.

He gives a nod to "resource nationalism", but makes no effort to predict its impact.

In my opinion, "resource nationalism" will grow to be the significant factor over the next few years. It could happen very quickly in the form of embargoes, which would likely drop us right into WW3 overnight, or it could trickle in slowly, which will put the slow squeeze on importers.

I believe the squeeze is in process. You'd better all hope it doesn't tip out of control.
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"Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
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md@peakoil.com

cipi604

I say that is impossible to keep the decline rate 2-4% after few years because of the problems that will appear from this huge lack of energy.
Because things tend to be much more complicated later on, the decline, or the total stopping of exports, will be much much higher.
Some thoughts about this?
In my opinion there is no possible way to handle the situation. You can call it bad luck.

kokoda · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2006 Posts: 392

waldo · Tar Sands Joined: Dec 22, 2007 Posts: 44

Just for fun, this is my prediction for world crude oil production, just from simple curve fitting of all nations (peak of 12-month averaged at 74 Mb/d in late 2005). We have a second lower peak in early 2008, then downhill:
2008.04 73.64
2008.13 73.68
2008.21 73.71
2008.29 73.73
2008.38 73.73
2008.46 73.72
2008.54 73.69
2008.63 73.65
2008.71 73.59
2008.79 73.52
2008.88 73.44
2008.96 73.35
2009.04 73.26
2009.13 73.15
2009.21 73.04
2009.29 72.92
2009.38 72.80
2009.46 72.67
2009.54 72.54
2009.63 72.40
2009.71 72.26
2009.79 72.11
2009.88 71.96
2009.96 71.81
2010.04 71.65

evilgenius

Of course, if the export land model holds (why shouldn't it) then the curve will be parabolic, not linear. The rate will increase at a rate of increase peculiar to domestic demand in producing countries. This will be worse in OPEC countries, I think.
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"Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2024 Location: Arkansas

Someone unconfuse me. He predicts PO about 2011, but do his bullet points say declining oil production now (meaning PO now)?

TheDude

I pointed out in the other CS report topic (Just how close to Peak Oil are we?) that he considers the 2011 date his most optimistic one; looks like 2009 otherwise.

Thread mergin' time. I like the title on this one better.
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The god damn plane has crashed into the mountain!

cipi604

So it's pretty clear now. Thank you.

seahorse2 · Expert Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1786

From my reading of this latest report and other forecast on future oil production, the optimistic scenarios all assume continued big increases in Nigerian oil production. If increasing oil production in Nigeria is the foundation for PO optimism, its akin to the 2005 foundation for the "goldilocks" economy, which was based on the continued issuance of subprime "liar loans" now wreaking havoc throughout out the world's financial system.

These two attacks in the last week at par for the course in Nigeria:

Pipeline blast:

PO news article

Militants attack oil tanker in port.

Nigerian News

LastViking · Last edited by LastViking on Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

funzone36 · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 04, 2005 Posts: 179

Civilization as we know it won't exist. Assuming no nuclear warfare, civilization is very likely to survive after peak oil even if it has to endure severe hardships.