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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| Quote: | | historical data from Bloomberg. |
Now we're talking. |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| Code: | high low close high diff low diff close diff Overall
mkwin 98.5 82 90 1.12 9.9 1.9 12.92
xarkz 100 78 88.14 0.38 13.9 3.76 18.04
SteinarN 112.3 90.7 102.7 12.68 1.2 10.8 24.68
zzzpeakoil 109.5 79.6 95.5 9.88 12.3 3.6 25.78
Concerned 109.75 72.24 88.75 10.13 19.66 3.15 32.94
basil_hayden 109 69 89 9.38 22.9 2.9 35.18
ColossalContrarian 119.87 82.31 101.51 20.25 9.59 9.61 39.45
whereagles 125.21 88.55 105.23 25.59 3.35 13.33 42.27
pup55 120.49 75.23 97.11 20.87 16.67 5.21 42.75
Gerben 119 102 75 19.38 10.1 16.9 46.38
Twilight 101.7 60.58 77.03 2.08 31.32 14.87 48.27
skyemoor 128 84 108 28.38 7.9 16.1 52.38
morph 125 82 110 25.38 9.9 18.1 53.38
dbruning 122 84.56 116 22.38 7.34 24.1 53.82
thuja 122 73 105 22.38 18.9 13.1 54.38
MrBill 137.22 80.42 99.29 37.6 11.48 7.39 56.47
Pops 149 91 98.6 49.38 0.9 6.7 56.98
Art_Vandelai 132.66 88.4 118.04 33.04 3.5 26.14 62.68
FishAreBest 140 80 105 40.38 11.9 13.1 65.38
Shannymara 138 84 118 38.38 7.9 26.1 72.38
LoneSnark 120 50 80 20.38 41.9 11.9 74.18
kmann 105 55 60 5.38 36.9 31.9 74.18
Snowstorm 134.97 83.16 122.49 35.35 8.74 30.59 74.68
wisconsin_cur 145.32 82.63 115.55 45.7 9.27 23.65 78.62
mekrob 142.92 87.86 123.83 43.3 4.04 31.93 79.27
Bas 139.5 85 125 39.88 6.9 33.1 79.88
eastbay 135 85 130 35.38 6.9 38.1 80.38
Doly 137.67 69.64 115.54 38.05 22.26 23.64 83.95
cat 152 70 104 52.38 21.9 12.1 86.38
DantesPeak 146 78 122 46.38 13.9 30.1 90.38
TheDude 130 120 125 30.38 28.1 33.1 91.58
dust_farmer 140 70 130 40.38 21.9 38.1 100.38
Lumpy 163 81 121 63.38 10.9 29.1 103.38
SpringCreekFarm 166 88 127 66.38 3.9 35.1 105.38
Tanada 166.23 123.77 82.3 66.61 31.87 9.6 108.08
zensui 160 88 136 60.38 3.9 44.1 108.38
Narz 164 89 152 64.38 2.9 60.1 127.38
joewp 175 89 145 75.38 2.9 53.1 131.38
sparky 167 89 160 67.38 2.9 68.1 138.38
Hans_Blix 199 45 99.5 99.38 46.9 7.6 153.88
mididoctors 200 90 180 100.38 1.9 88.1 190.38
careinke 213.47 78.34 184.56 113.85 13.56 92.66 220.07
GreyGhost 220 95 200 120.38 3.1 108.1 231.58
roccman 600 95 475 500.38 3.1 383.1 886.58
sjn 752 87 500 652.38 4.9 408.1 1065.38 |
Here are the current entries listed in the order of their current overall rankings. The first three values are what I have for your official forecast. If I have typoed anything on here or have the wrong values, please alert me to this effect. |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1655
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:37 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| pup55 wrote: | (...)
Here are the current entries listed in the order of their current overall rankings. The first three values are what I have for your official forecast. If I have typoed anything on here or have the wrong values, please alert me to this effect. |
What are all the other values?
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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high diff=difference between the forecast and actual high
low diff=difference between the forecast and actual low
close diff=difference between the forecast close and the current close
total= the sum of the above three. I used this to do the sort |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1655
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| pup55 wrote: | high diff=difference between the forecast and actual high
low diff=difference between the forecast and actual low
close diff=difference between the forecast close and the current close
total= the sum of the above three. I used this to do the sort |
ah, thanks for the effort... aren't we using this predictions like some form of game?
I suggest changing the formatting, this may work better:
name1
112_112_112_012_023
name2
320_112_123_134_032
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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This is no game. It is for the respect and admiration of the PO.com forum dwellers.
However, we can obviously check the standings from time to time, to see who gets the respect and admiration for the time being. Right now, it's mkwin, but the year is still young. |
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mkwin
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 01, 2007
Posts: 569
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 9:16 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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Tips his proverbial hat.
I think my pole position will be short-lived however; Xarkz will probably take the prize. I never believed speculators would let oil get to one hundred dollars before taking profits and given the recent weakening of the US economy, my $82 low price and $90 close might prove too high. |
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Gerben
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 07, 2007
Posts: 320
Location: Holland, United Kingdom (of the seven Netherlands)
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| Posted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| pup55 wrote: | | Code: | high low close high diff low diff close diff Overall
...
Gerben 119 102 75 19.38 10.1 16.9 46.38 |
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This should be 119 75 102. |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| Quote: | | this should be 119 75 102. |
I will fix it promptly. |
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MC2
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 26, 2006
Posts: 223
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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High: 107
Low: 62
Close: 64
Reason: deflationary contraction of world economic system, followed by demand destruction. |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| Quote: | high low close high diff low diff close diff Overall
mkwin 98.5 82 90 1.12 4.99 3.01 9.12
xarkz 100 78 88.14 0.38 8.99 1.15 10.52
zzzpeakoil 109.5 79.6 95.5 9.88 7.39 8.51 25.78
Concerned 109.75 72.24 88.75 10.13 14.75 1.76 26.64
basil_hayden 109 69 89 9.38 17.99 2.01 29.38
SteinarN 112.3 90.7 102.7 12.68 3.71 15.71 32.1
Twilight 101.7 60.58 77.03 2.08 26.41 9.96 38.45
ColossalContrarian 119.87 82.31 101.51 20.25 4.68 14.52 39.45
pup55 120.49 75.23 97.11 20.87 11.76 10.12 42.75
whereagles 125.21 88.55 105.23 25.59 1.56 18.24 45.39
Gerben 119 75 102 19.38 11.99 15.01 46.38
skyemoor 128 84 108 28.38 2.99 21.01 52.38
morph 125 82 110 25.38 4.99 23.01 53.38
dbruning 122 84.56 116 22.38 2.43 29.01 53.82
thuja 122 73 105 22.38 13.99 18.01 54.38
MC2 107 62 64 7.38 24.99 22.99 55.36
MrBill 137.22 80.42 99.29 37.6 6.57 12.3 56.47
LoneSnark 120 50 80 20.38 36.99 6.99 64.36
kmann 105 55 60 5.38 31.99 26.99 64.36
Pops 149 91 98.6 49.38 4.01 11.61 65 |
Updated Top-20 through Jan 23 |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4115
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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Holy cow pup55, it's going to change by the minute!
But when the it's all over, those predicting the high numbers will prevail. I can feel it in my bones.
This will be fun though. Thanks for your effort. I certainly hope you set this up so it doesn't take up too much of your time.
_________________
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3590
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| Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| Quote: | | set this up so it doesn't take up too much of your time |
It's all automated. Just takes a couple of clicks.
Also automated my WPSR spreadsheet to give the statistics ongoing. |
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SteinarN
Tar Sands
Joined: Sep 20, 2007
Posts: 73
Location: Norway
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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Is there any update available?  |
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FreddyH
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 14, 2008
Posts: 321
Location: The Yukon
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| Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge |
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| mkwin wrote: | | I never believed speculators would let oil get to one hundred dollars before taking profits and given the recent weakening of the US economy, my $82 low price and $90 close might prove too high. |
Aramco can't pump at its new plant due to flaring agreements with the greenies. They should be ramping up thru the Spring. Assuming OPEC ignores its fringe noise wrt reducing quota in March, oil has an opportunity to approach its floor in usually soft Demand Q2.
With prospects of a new usa prez, the geopolitical premium should fizzle ... caveat a joint attack on iranian uranium processing facilities by unnamed nations. The Ghawar rumour is being treated as a bad hoax perpetrated by the peakists. And speculator positions should evaporate as traditional. This would indicate a probable fall to $74 if those factors are extinguished.
Alas, the current gross margin of $17 is also expendable in light of other components within that augment the bottom line. Thus the actual floor potential in Q2 is $57. After that, we're on a journey to 88-mbd Demand and back to inventory related spiking.
In the present high demand environment, there is little chance for inventories or spare capacity to build significantly. It would appear the days of sub $50 (last seen 365 days ago) have passed into posterity...
Barrel Meter link
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www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits) |
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