Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
mos6507 wrote:
I'm all for techno fixes if we use it as a gift of time to solve our root problem of overpopulation. But we will soon take any hail-mary pass for granted and continue with business as usual, not realizing that we have only delayed the inevitable collapse.
Such pessimism! Can you not envision a brave new world where we in the West take all the remaining oil and do just fine until we find the magic cure-all which our OP predicts. That of course necessitates the dying off of the rest of the people on this earth but there are indications now from the American neocon philosophy that that wouldn't be a big problem or the end of the world, figuratively speaking.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 676 Location: Illinois
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Windmills wrote:
Isn't there a thermodynamic problem with attempting to derive your energy from your own waste?
We don't have to use waste. We can use plant matter. That is fueled by the sun so no thermodynamic problems there.
Ayame wrote:
It has been widely calculated that we would need somewhere along the lines of 3 extra earths to get everyone to 1st world living standards. Or, in the case you are proposing, 'the waste of 3 extra earths to be munched on by bacteria and converted into energy'
We don't have to bring everyone up to 1st world living standards. There are developing countries that are heading for a demographic decline, Iran for example. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Engineered trees that fix more carbon from the atmosphere
would solve the problem of acid oceans that you quote. Would
also help if they rehablitated acid/depleted soils.
The species losses we've incurred are usually from habitat
destruction e.g. deforestation. If we recycle more and use
inputs more efficiently then our ecological footprint will grow
much more slowly.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Windmills wrote:
Isn't there a thermodynamic problem with attempting to derive your energy from your own waste?
The waste that our economy produces now is based on cheap energy that will be disappearing. You'll end up having to use more and more of the energy you derive to...what...create waste so you can get energy out of it? This argument is analogous to using waste steam and heat from power plants. Good luck powering a global economy with supposed leftovers. All you do is increase the overall efficiency of the primary process when you use waste for energy.
And trees do require more than just those things. They, like just about every other plant, require fertile soil. If you're taking out everything and returning nothing to the soil, you won't be growing much after a while.
I remember reading some number crunching regarding all the photosynthetic energy available from biomass in the entire United States. I recall the number being quite insufficient to continue anything close to business as usual. Anyone have a quote or link for that?
That's using biomass for energy. bacteria and plants can use
the endless energy source of the sun. I thought all you green guys would love a sun/bacteria powered lantern that releases light at
night?
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1945 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
This genie is out of the bottle and isn't going back. Whether the technology will translate to the scope and breadth of application to tackle the current problems and whether it is scaleable are two major hurdles to leap. In addition, whether it will be benign enough to have a risk free application is another. We simply do not know.
However, the ultimate question is whether we are contented with seeing narcissistic capitalism enjoy another period of unassailable supremacy and is the one I suspect plaguing most minds from the responses I have read. I detect a weariness with this system, a sense of disconnect. Consequently, the question of what technology we use to improve the quality of life of our species is not the core issue. That issue really is what sort of system do we believe will deliver us that quality. In the process, we would have to ask ourselves, what do we expect of that system and is it capable of maintaining a modicum of lifestyle quality.
In answering that question, remember every system rises from the foundations of what preceded it. No system stands entirely unblemished from the past. We have only to look at the history of mankind to see this fact. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
americandream wrote:
This genie is out of the bottle and isn't going back. Whether the technology will translate to the scope and breadth of application to tackle the current problems and whether it is scaleable are two major hurdles to leap. In addition, whether it will be benign enough to have a risk free application is another. We simply do not know.
However, the ultimate question is whether we are contented with seeing narcissistic capitalism enjoy another period of unassailable supremacy and is the one I suspect plaguing most minds from the responses I have read. I detect a weariness with this system, a sense of disconnect. Consequently, the question of what technology we use to improve the quality of life of our species is not the core issue. That issue really is what sort of system do we believe will deliver us that quality. In the process, we would have to ask ourselves, what do we expect of that system and is it capable of maintaining a modicum of lifestyle quality.
In answering that question, remember every system rises from the foundations of what preceded it. No system stands entirely unblemished from the past. We have only to look at the history of mankind to see this fact.
Much of this is values based. The world is far from perfect. Always has been. It's debatable whether it was actually worse in the past. From a human standpoint it could well have been.
When it comes to practicalities, the species has little use for whether it feels disconnected right now. It has and always will want to survive.
We are indeed a virus on the planet, on a growth binge, but we
deserve this no less than insects of any other successful life form.
In the end nature is indifferent. Life will always be here in some
form and nature couldn't care less what it is. Just as long as it is.
So if we're a smart virus we owe it to ourselves to keep going.
Narcissistic capitalism isn't perfect, but depending on your values
medieval slavery was worse.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Ayame wrote:
moobradidi wrote:
Raising 3rd world standards will eventually stabilise the popn just as infant survival etc in the first world has caused us to have zero pop growth.
It has been widely calculated that we would need somewhere along the lines of 3 extra earths to get everyone to 1st world living standards. Or, in the case you are proposing, 'the waste of 3 extra earths to be munched on by bacteria and converted into energy'
Windmills is right. In order to convert waste, the waste must first be created, and the only reason we churn out so much waste at the moment is because of cheap energy.
I'm sure this is based on efficiency/conversion levels that may not apply of we can engineer microbes in the way envisaged. Also we
may be able to engineer more durable materials that last indefinitely rather than consuming et more natural resources.
With infinite energy from the sun, just about anything is possible.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
mark wrote:
moobradidi, you have failed to understand the reality of peak oil. Like so many others you are looking for solutions to the symptom. Let me state this more clearly. Peak oil is a symptom. Over-population is a symptom. Peak everything is a symptom. Those looking for solutions to symptoms are forever chasing rainbows.
Human existence is actually the problem. It impacts its environment to the extent that it sometimes plummets human pop levels. Always has.
We can potentially prevent this now.
There has never really been a "steady state" society in perfect
balance with nature. I have little confidence we can do this.
But I'm pretty confident we can engineer processes to replace
the energy needed by fossil fuels and to reduce ebvironmental
impacts and even rehabiliate many ecosystems. That part is
unambiguously good.
The idea that the capitalist party is a problem is a values based
thing. There are plenty of people on the planet who would
like to have the problem.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Windmills wrote:
I'd be amazed if anyone attempting to introduce a new technology, especially on such a large and ubiquitous sacle, would comprehensively investigate its impact on the planet in its entirety before implementing it. Instead, cars, power plants, airplanes, and practically every other technological offspring is introduced with the implicit assumption that it has no side effects, no drawbacks, and all of its impacts and ramifications are completely positive.
There has been a history of technological innovation simply as a need to attempt to remedy the negative effects of previous technological innovation.
Everything has costs. I remember a quote about a guy lamenting
the unemploying effect of a stem shovel on the 100 men it
replaced. the comment was that was even worse than that
because it replaced 10,000 men with thimbles...
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
namenick wrote:
moobradidi wrote:
Quote:
It will be a crowded and not very pleasant plant- perhaps- but
we will survive.
Yes, that's precisely what most of us predict too. I wonder if you see it getting worse than some of the others. If the synthetic genome projects pan out for us then the suffering would perhaps be alleviated sooner but I wouldn't expect that it's going to come to our rescue soon enough. Obviously you agree by stating the above.
And then you wrote:
Quote:
So yeah, business as usual for quite a while to come.
Well that seems to be a contradiction of the rest of your post! First you give us the message that it's going to be crowded and not a very pleasant plan(e)t and then you say it's business as usual. Until you said that I was taking you seriously but that last comment leads me to believe that you just want to be contradictory on the subject and even that perhaps you are more interested in getting some attention than being helpful. Maybe you could explain why you contradict yourself? If it turns out that you just agree with everybody else on this forum then there's no need to bother paying attention to you. If you're somebody with some new ideas then you may be a breathe of fresh air.
It's useless to predict life 200-10,000 years from now. Who knows?
certainly not me.
To my taste earth is aleady too crowded but that's just a value.
Potentially it can take many more. whether i or anyone else likes
it is not in our control- really.
But if we have the technological means, i think it will happen.
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
Imagine my surprise!
I painted my ass green and photosynthesized my way to jesus.
Hear my delight as doom descends. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
namenick wrote:
mark wrote:
moobradidi, you have failed to understand the reality of peak oil. Like so many others you are looking for solutions to the symptom. Let me state this more clearly. Peak oil is a symptom. Over-population is a symptom. Peak everything is a symptom. Those looking for solutions to symptoms are forever chasing rainbows.
He may be a little more optimistic than some of us Mark, but then on the other hand he's not denying peak oil in the least and that's good. So he's one of us regardless of whether he sees himself that way or not because he acknowledges that it's going to get tough when the oil starts to run out. Therefore I would say that we should welcome him to the club but ask him to substantiate some of his claims that there will be scientific discoveries that will come to our rescue befor the whole human population is dead and gone.
Personally I would agree with him on that extreme not taking place and have not found anything to debate on his optimism yet. After all, he does admit that things will get tough. He could be even more pessimistic in his views than the rest of us. A doom and gloomer perhaps?
And after all Mark, how seriously should we take a person who starts a thread which claims that peak oil is over and then admits
that it's going to be tough or unpleasant on this plan(e)t?
If this technology pans out soon in even small ways and we
obtain some other efficiencies, peak oil in terms of its impact could
well never happen. That doesn't mean that the reality of less
available oil will disappear, just that it won't matter.
I think there's a good chance of this. That's not to say that we
won't continue to have a growing negative impact on the planet,
but it can be slowed and in some precious cases like habitat
maybe even reversed.
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1455 Location: Columbia, South Carolina
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
I have to admit, it would be cool to have my computer hooked up to my juicer & be able to run it off the pulp. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1945 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:32 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil is over
moobradidi wrote:
americandream wrote:
This genie is out of the bottle and isn't going back. Whether the technology will translate to the scope and breadth of application to tackle the current problems and whether it is scaleable are two major hurdles to leap. In addition, whether it will be benign enough to have a risk free application is another. We simply do not know.
However, the ultimate question is whether we are contented with seeing narcissistic capitalism enjoy another period of unassailable supremacy and is the one I suspect plaguing most minds from the responses I have read. I detect a weariness with this system, a sense of disconnect. Consequently, the question of what technology we use to improve the quality of life of our species is not the core issue. That issue really is what sort of system do we believe will deliver us that quality. In the process, we would have to ask ourselves, what do we expect of that system and is it capable of maintaining a modicum of lifestyle quality.
In answering that question, remember every system rises from the foundations of what preceded it. No system stands entirely unblemished from the past. We have only to look at the history of mankind to see this fact.
Much of this is values based. The world is far from perfect. Always has been. It's debatable whether it was actually worse in the past. From a human standpoint it could well have been.
When it comes to practicalities, the species has little use for whether it feels disconnected right now. It has and always will want to survive.
We are indeed a virus on the planet, on a growth binge, but we
deserve this no less than insects of any other successful life form.
In the end nature is indifferent. Life will always be here in some
form and nature couldn't care less what it is. Just as long as it is.
So if we're a smart virus we owe it to ourselves to keep going.
Narcissistic capitalism isn't perfect, but depending on your values
medieval slavery was worse.
Perhaps. Time will be the ultimate arbiter. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
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