Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:34 am Post subject: Scenario-2300 by TrendLines Research
One of the venues featured at my TrendLines website is our tracking of the global Depletion Outlooks & estimates of URR. 2008 marks our fifth year for this project. It has gained viewership in over 100 countries and includes 22 practitioners. I am especially flattered by the number of post secondary institutions that include it their curriculum. It was on that basis that i was invited to particpate in the NPC Global Study of Oil & Gas in 2007.
And as most of u may know, i've under gone somewhat of an elongated epiphany moment since the NPC Study. Altho known as a proponent of liberal URR estimates, it became clear to me in the NPC deliberations that the All Liquids production profile does not follow the symmetry of the Hubbert Curve.
Albeit non-conventionals have added 20-mbd to Supply to date, from a point fast approaching, they will have no effect on growing the Supply and will thence be assisting in dampening the Decline down slope angle. In short, a 3-Tb URR (or 4, 5, 6 or 7 for that matter) does not mean that the Peak Rate will be near the half way crossovers of those volumes.
In that regard, i have found, frankly, that none of the 22 Outlooks that we include in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Presentation really addresses the deficient flow realities of most non-conventionals. Some don't give non-conventionals merit anyway, but with an avg URR of 3.8-Tb ... most of 'em acknowledge that non Regular Conventional Liquids will play an important role some time in the future.
Since February i have struggled with the proposed Peaks that we've been posting that are getting higher and later due to burgeoning URRs. Everybody but Jean Laherrere is seeking that midpoint a la hubbert.
So this past Autumn, i commenced design of our own model. Flow based. Bottom up analysis. With provision for underlying decline from mature & retired fields (3.9% in 2008). And acknowlegement of the very real massive (and growing) economic volumes of non-conventionals. The profile of the Scenario-2300 (edit: originally "2500") has been thru several drafts and it is perfect by no means. It is ever changing with new data pouring in, but it has attained a profile that i am comfortable with.
As well as defining the past underlying decline, it differs from most studies by its focus on components of the All Liquids family, rather than cumulative totals from petroleum provinces or nations.
I welcome your comments, questions, flames, critiques & ridicule. But please understand that some areas are proprietary. And apologies for the shameless self promotion!
(edit: original charts have been updated down thread) _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Last edited by FreddyH on Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:13 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3387 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: Re: Scenario-2500 by TrendLines Research
FreddyH wrote:
It was on that basis that i was invited to particpate in the NPC Global Study of Oil & Gas in 2007.
I see that you took part in a conference call, along with Bartlett, Hirsch, Laherrere, Campbell:
PDF This is the only mention of you on the NPC website, did your participation extend any further than that?
So you're plotting historical production as following some other distribution? What would that be? Lorentz?
How do you explain the difference between your analysis of past growth and that of other researchers?
When I first looked at your site I read 2013 as peak for all liquids; then you said 2018, now it's 2011. So you're saying 2014, then? Have you calculated the average of your past predictions yet? _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: Scenario-2500 by TrendLines Research
TheDude wrote:
So you're plotting historical production as following some other distribution?
How do you explain the difference between your analysis of past growth and that of other researchers?
Dude, my past extraction plot is actual (1133-Gb) ... not modeled.
Past would vary from Hubbert i.e. he overcalculated past consumption to end 1973. He thought it to be 300-Gb incl NGL, whereas i see it to be 271. Thus a recalculation of his Regular Conventional Oil (RCO) URR (excl NGL) is 1846-Gb. This is my adopted RCO URR. Hubbert's last Outlook (1974) was based on a 2000-Gb URR incl NGL.
Campbell's end 2006 for RCO past extraction is 1008-Gb. IMHO, he has mistakenly included NGL for early years, as my figure is 969-Gb. A year ago, Colin's URR was 1850. He has since raised it to 1900, but with his interpretation of the new data he reduced it this month to 1875-Gb. It must be remembered that he projects URR only out to 2100AD. Extrapolating his RCO production profile indicates that his Real RCO URR is 2001-Gb. I suspect we will see many more downward revisions in his newsletters.
I applaud Colin Campbell for his meticulous data base and the monthly revisions. They are crucial to knowing where we've been, where we are & where the profile is headed. It is easy to ridicule these updates, but the pattern of the revisions and their reprecussions are intuitive in itself. But i digress...
My 1846-Gb URR for RCO indicates a midpt crossover of 923 in February 2005. This is utterly amazing as i also calculate 2005 to the be the record year for RCO flow. The record month btw is July 2006.
The increasing underlying decline rate is no doubt related to our being past peak in conventional oil. EOR and aggressive straw activity may be stretching its Peak into a plateau, but as far as the geology is concerned, the recent inferior productivity seen is problematic of post peak deterioration.
If the RCO plateau continues via capacity builds, our Hubbert Theory application will be to increase the Decline Rate from its natural 3.75% pattern.
The drafts of the future production profile varied as i trained the model and backtested. Methinx most folks were surprised by the extent of the record Autumn Supply figures from IEA & EIA. With December's numbers, it became apparent that this was a new trend and not an anomaly ... and the model was revised to capture the enhanced flow and reduced appparent underlying decline rate (UDR). Less than a month ago i was seeing almost 9% UDR.
I would say that the proponents of the 8% UDR have not yet incorporated the 2007Q4 results. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 1:49 am Post subject: Re: Scenario-2300 by TrendLines Research
As the dramatic upturn in flows continues along with pertinent revisions in surplus capacity, the March version of the Scenario-2300 (formerly 2500) sees the call for Peak Year postponed to 2019 & Peak Rate increased to 103-mbd.
The unexpected significant rising flows come prior to commissioning of awaited new capacity. Along with other factors, this has reduced my 2008 Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) to 2.55% globally from the 3.9% calculated earlier. Saudi Arabia's UDR is raised to 2.9% and the USA rate remains 4.2%.
The Regular Conventional Oil component of URR has been increased from 1846-Gb to 2305 with a similar offset of the Kerogen portion.
The graphic has been hybridized to show both a (conservative) projection based on analysis of announced MegaProjects and another (optimistic) with a premise of those projects continuing into the future at their six-yr average. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:26 am Post subject: Re: Scenario-2300 by TrendLines Research
April 12th Update: Peak Oil advanced to 2015 @ 97-mbd. See details. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 12:10 am Post subject: Re: Scenario-2300 by TrendLines Research
Pathetic...you post this as a flood of people come into Peakoil.com and think to yourself...man I need to get some of these people to my website to increase traffic. Give it a rest...Aaron should be charging you for your flamboyant self promotion
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: Re: Scenario-2300 by TrendLines Research
Thanx for your concern, Troy, but i was already three weeks behind in answering emails & PMs when the Wall Street Journal linked to our site on Thursday. If u visit yourself, u will find that we had visitors from 108 nations this Winter.
Have a nice day, eh... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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Have you calculated the average of your past predictions yet?
