How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:19 pm Post subject: Waiting for Peak Oil...Quietly Waiting
Sometimes, I wish the oil would just go ahead and peak. Seriously, let's get it over with. This is like a push-pull love affair that drives you nuts! One day, the news is pro-peak oilers, the next, pro-cornucopians. Making any kind of future plans is a fool's errand, it seems. I have written many posts on this site, but few to the planning forum, as the target keeps moving and I only have a peep sight. Wish I had a high-powered scope, so I could put this thing in my crosshairs.
I think the thing that bothers most of us is the fact that the powers that be do not seem to have a lucid game plan other than hubristic imperial adventures. So, is the answer to peak oil going to be nothing but resource wars? With all the new funding for weapons systems and new nuclear capabilities, it makes one wonder, especially since the Cold War has been over for years. What do we need all that military might for?
If I knew we would move toward renewables, that is one thing. If I knew we were going to invade for oil, that is another. If I knew peak-oil was this year, my plans would change again. If ten years down the road was the date, another set of plans. I think you get my drift. How in the hell does one plan for such an event with so many variables, i.e., lies, poor transparency, unproven reserves, and China, for Christ sakes!
Then comes all the other crap that has come home to haunt us that I mentioned in my Peak Oil Perfect Storm and Euro vs the Petro-dollar threads. OPEC is going off the oil standard, and with Russia moving a great deal of its reserves to the Euro, I see the dollars days of being the world's reserve currency numbered. If this happens, all those US reserve dollars will come home to roost and lay some awful eggs. Interest rates and inflation could get quite ugly. The housing bubble will pop. Unemployment will soar.
So, what do we do? How do we plan? Expect the worse and prepare for it, many say. There is a whole picnic basket of unmentionables to sample from it seems. To me, there are only two questions that need answers in the short run:
1) When will peak oil make the six o'clock news?
2) How will it be dealt with?
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?
Every day, I scan the news and the posts here for anything I might have missed. I see the frustrations of many members rising to the surface in their posts. I see the same old issues hashed and rehashed. We need some new meat to chew on, not just table scraps, but a solid chunk that you can really sink your teeth into. Some coherent direction that we are headed. I have not run out of topics to post on, but I am running low. I can only say this with a great degree of certitude: Something has to give and soon. We cannot continue to avoid paying the piper for much longer. But, like every thing else in Peak Oil, only time will tell. Find yourself a good seat, the wait may be long--or not. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue Jan 16, 2007 10:41 pm; edited 3 times in total
That's my problem. Before I learned of Peak Oil, I was just another 20 year old bebopping through life, trying to figure out what I wanted for a major, what the job outlook would be, when I want to marry etc.
Now, I wonder all that and then I wonder if it will all be a futile effort as global society collapses 10, 5, or even next year!
I think, I'm not sure, but I think it comes down to your level of tolerance. Certainly, if you really wanted to, you could charge away a couple thousand in gear, get together with a large group of survivalist friends and dissapear into the Canadian/Alaskan Wilderness right now and probably come out better for it. There's certainly good logic to it.
On the other hand...Everyone wants to enjoy life, and enjoy the benefits of modern society. All the spinning bells and whistles that make our life so grand but add nothing to it...What makes it all the more perverse is that we already know it's superflous, but we are bound and determined to enjoy it while it lasts anyway...
It's kinda like when as a kid, you knew you were gonna get spanked by your dad, but had to wait for him to get home...You just want to take the lumps and move on. I know how you feel. But still... _________________ If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and a man. ~ Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 140 Location: sydney, australia
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:11 pm Post subject:
My thoughts exactly!!
Peak oil to me is kind of like like religion - we can't prove it just by saying it's happened in the past.
The only way for us to prove it is for it to happen. I'm getting fed up with all the teasing. The reports of various production regions dropping only to make a slight recovery or the question of whether a drop in production might actually be opec lowering it's production or not to maintain a certain price of oil.
But i think a cushioning mechanism (atleast initially) is the strategic petroleum reserves of various countries as well as the usual oil stocks they hold. Problems will occur when there are actual shortages in supply, but until both the SPR and the oil stocks drops to 0 i don't think we'll see them. A consistant drop in oil stocks - http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=488266 might be an indication that as far as production goes, we are post peak but since we have this small cushion of reserve then we remain blissfully unaware.
I don't know how many squillion times iv'e heard some variation on 'US debt is unsustainable', or 'the credit system in the US is out of control'. While the arguments are sound, debt is a condition and not a cause and so while at some point 'people' will no longer accept the IUO's i don't think this applies to nations as pointedly as it does for people. Essentially nations will allow themselves to accumulate debt for a much longer time and to a much larger degree than they would on a personal level. Being in debt may cause people to say 'wow, we're in debt', but will it force their hand? I doubt it.
Rehashing old and beaten well to death subjects made me wonder how long people have been talking about these very things. Last week i googled for 'predictions for 2003' and 'predictions for 2004'. It was of no surprise that people have been talking about the state of the US economy and it's unsustainability along with the fall of the US$ for many years now and various other predictions. Some were close, and some were way off. I'd expect if i looked further then i'd see it even going back into the late 90's.
they say often waiting for death is more worse than death itself.
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Waiting for Peak Oil
MonteQuest wrote:
To me, there are only two questions that need answers in the short run:
1) When will peak oil make the six o’clock news?
2) How will it be dealt with?
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?
The problem won't start out as a change in availability for us in the U.S. - rather, it will be an acceleration in the rate of change in price. I expect that it will be a couple years before that happens, at least. You'll start seeing videos of motorists complaining at the pump, then of fuel lines, and then instant experts telling us how to conserve fuel. A chipper elderly lady will tell a reporter how much she enjoys walking. A younger male will brag about having lost 27 pounds. And everything will be optimistic and upbeat.
Our board discussions will be much the same as they have been. Perhaps we can exchange recipies.
The first major step to deal with it will be a mild rationing scheme, such as odd-even days to purchase gasoline. After that will come more stringent controls. Then, we'll see some president or other calling for a new Manhattan project that will solve the problem in a few years if we all work and sacrifice together. The evening news will offer regular reports of success following success, leading ever closer to a solution. Which won't ever come.
It may well be a decade before the average person accepts the fundamental switch that Peak represents. I don't suppose it would be wise to purchase mobile home stocks during the interim. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
i don't think those are the right 2 questions to be concerned with..
who cares when its going to get to the mainstream 6pm news? obviously it should already be there and its not, so.. In other words i don't know what your waiting for, or why your waiting for it. Seems you want the general public and the govt. to recognize it and then you'll start visiting the 'planning for the future' section on this site.. it'll prolly be dealt with with denial and like the above guy said this dragging things along with empty solutions like odd/even days according to last digits on license plates, etc etc..
but i do understand the frustration and can see the desire for some sort of 'sign' that..ok, this things going down, no more fkin around.. Just don't think you're going to see it on 6pm news. It seems to be a matter of just taking the plunge and start preparing.. which doesn't have to be a full on departure into survivalism, but learning, and making a plan so when you do inch closer to the edge of committing to really dealing with this through individual solutions, which is the answer-waiting for media/govts. to save the day is not, then you'll be better prepared in dealing/living w/out the abundance of fosill fuel you're used to....while everyone else will be moronically lined up for hours at filling stations, borrowing their neighbors odd #'d license plate to get a 2day in a row fillup... :rolleyes:
I burnt out a few months ago (on peak oil and my M.S. program) and I haven't visited this site or read any more books, or checked the price of oil everyday till today. In the meantime, I've signed my life to a mortgage, started a new job (repair construction) and only occassionally brought up the topic in conversation.
I've decided that when it comes to peak oil, uncertainty is an appropriate adjective. And given the opportunity, I'm going to live this life to the fullest, that is, the best I know how.
I was intrigued to see that Deffeye's has written a new book, and I'm glad to find peakoil.com still thriving. I agree that many topics have been discussed, and no consensus is emerging, even in our little sphere of knowledge. We're kind of waiting for the hammer to drop, for the SHTF. Even as we take baby steps toward our conceptions of sustainability.
It seems clear that peak oil affects everything in a big way, but everthing is so interwoven and complicated we can't really say anything for sure about the 5 W's.
As with most issues, I think alot of people say, "well, I can't do anything about it, so I'll ignore it, I need to put dinner on the table." A few other people say, "I need to radically change my life and society in anticipation of a worst case (or worse) scenario. And those who don't do likewise are either ignorant or irresponsible fools or both."
I've been in the first camp for awhile and I think it feels better than being in the doom and gloom camp. But man, gas sure has gotten volatile, hasn't it? Can't really ignore that part, can you?
So here is my idea for radical social transformation to tackle all sorts of problems. Have a place, say a community center of sorts, where one can go at any given time and express their concerns, whatever they may be, to others in a variety of media (i.e. signs, prepared speeches, pamphlets, art, etc.) without fear of disrespect or violence. The idea is that over time this immediate kind of experience will open people's minds and educate and challenge them as well as getting to know neighbors and getting away from t.v.s and computers. In other words, the practice of direct democracy by the people. The power of which will only grow by the strength of the consensus established, the more controversial a topic, the more delayed the decision.
Joined: Jan 03, 2005 Posts: 173 Location: Leucadia in the summer and Baja in the winter
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:55 pm Post subject: Re: Waiting for Peak Oil
MonteQuest wrote:
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?
MQ, I would argue that PO is not mainstream. I haven't seen it on the 6 O'clock news. Haven't seen it on the front page, or even the back page of the local fishwrap. Imagine how the public would feel if they knew in 2 to 6 years they were going to be paying double (?) and triple (?) at the gas pump.
I have a feeling the real estate euphoria is over. In San Diego there has been a downswing in pricing the last several months. How does the media play it? "Seasonal abberation."
If PO was mainstream, maybe Irene and Fred in Iowa would wake up and find out Iraq is not about terrorist and more about oil. Can't have that can we?
I wish PO was mainstream....... _________________ "If what we had was a dog and pony show what we have now is a canine-equestrian extravaganza"
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: Waiting for Peak Oil
Pfish wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?
MQ, I would argue that PO is not mainstream. I haven't seen it on the 6 O'clock news. Haven't seen it on the front page, or even the back page of the local fishwrap. Imagine how the public would feel if they knew in 2 to 6 years they were going to be paying double (?) and triple (?) at the gas pump.
I have a feeling the real estate euphoria is over. In San Diego there has been a downswing in pricing the last several months. How does the media play it? "Seasonal abberation."
If PO was mainstream, maybe Irene and Fred in Iowa would wake up and find out Iraq is not about terrorist and more about oil. Can't have that can we?
I wish PO was mainstream.......
I think most people suspect that iraq is about oil any way. say they knew for for sure so what? (Really iraq was more than just oil)
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:09 pm Post subject: Re: Waiting for Peak Oil
Pfish wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?
MQ, I would argue that PO is not mainstream. I haven't seen it on the 6 O'clock news. Haven't seen it on the front page, or even the back page of the local fishwrap. Imagine how the public would feel if they knew in 2 to 6 years they were going to be paying double (?) and triple (?) at the gas pump.
I have a feeling the real estate euphoria is over. In San Diego there has been a downswing in pricing the last several months. How does the media play it? "Seasonal abberation."
If PO was mainstream, maybe Irene and Fred in Iowa would wake up and find out Iraq is not about terrorist and more about oil. Can't have that can we?
I wish PO was mainstream.......
Read my Year in Review Blog. June 2004 cover of National G and the fall issue of Yes! MAgazine is pretty mainstream, but not on the 6 o'clock news. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Waiting for Peak Oil
MonteQuest wrote:
Read my Year in Review Blog. June 2004 cover of National G and the fall issue of Yes! MAgazine is pretty mainstream, but not on the 6 o'clock news.
National Geographic is actually better than the 6 o'clock news. Nobody remembers the news broadcast.
A copy of National Geographic can hang around on coffee tables for years. _________________ Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
yeah and the only time mainstream media DOES discuss it, they use qualifier adjectives, present part of the theory or counter it with a cornucopian arguement. No matter how the mainstream media treats this subject, the average view does not come away alarmed or considers the subject longer than the next bit. At most some people may connect the dots and think, this sounds familiar and even fewer of them think to do additional research. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
yeah and the only time mainstream media DOES discuss it, they use qualifier adjectives, present part of the theory or counter it with a cornucopian arguement. No matter how the mainstream media treats this subject, the average view does not come away alarmed or considers the subject longer than the next bit. At most some people may connect the dots and think, this sounds familiar and even fewer of them think to do additional research.
I recall seeing an interview on CNBC last September when oil was at $50+. It was on Kudlow and Cramer. Kudlow was interviewing an oil company CEO and they were discussing the supply issue. The CEO flat out said that we have serious issue in 2010. His model shows a big gap on the supply side of the equation.
This was prime time on CNBC on one of their top rated evening shows. Kudlow is no fool. He knew all about PO and was discussing the impact with quite a bit of knowledge that would make any PO'er proud.
The media is getting the word out gradually. Most of them are ultra liberal and are completely in tune with the left wing environmental agenda. _________________ Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
The mainstream media reporters may be personally liberal. The news presented however not. Liberal reporters can only be as liberal as their conservative media ownership lets them be. On the whole, I think a political bias is generally absent and the stories selected mostly mainstream. Mainstream media IS afterall still motivated by what sells the most advertising and a message that we are all Fark is not going to help GM sell more cars.
This doesn't mean you won't find some subtle left leaning language being used by some anchors (Dan Rather) though. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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