Joined: May 22, 2004 Posts: 1422 Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:21 pm Post subject:
Even though I don't believe Peak Oil will cause a break down in society I like some of the ideas that Mad Scientist has. Improving your own physical and spiritual health sounds like one of the best things that you can do for any eventuality. Thinking back to the stories my Gram has of living on the farm, I would be laid out on my back for a couple of days if I tried to do what they did day in and day out.
One thing my Gram said that is appropriate for this forum is that it took her Dad about a month all told to cut, haul, chop and store sufficient wood to heat their farm house for the winter. Thats 1/12 of your life spent just to keep your family from freezing to death. Thank God for oil.
I do not have much to add here at the moment. I agree that the useful information on these threads should be archived - I know that I will be referring to them once I get to decision making time.
My own personal situation is still in the " convince " mode. I am currently setting up some family meetings to discuss Peak Oil. The outcome of those meetings will determine the course of my subsequent actions.
One thing I am working towards is what steps are necessary to become debt free. Selling our acreage and moving to a more modest situation would go a long way towards it - but obvously your spouse has to understand the situation to accomplish that. The problem with the acreage is that we're just too close to Calgary - 5 minutes to the closest Wal-mart, etc. Great for an oil rich world, not so great for the world in we will be living in the near future.
There is one thing I have not seen addressed. For those of us with rather poor vision, corrective lenses are a real neccessity. As we get older our eyes change - anyone know if there is a way to predict future prescription requirements ?
Joined: May 16, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: Rural, Indiana.
Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2004 9:43 am Post subject:
I have very poor eyes and have also wondered how to obtain new glasses in the future. I'd have lasik done, but because of a medical reason i cannot. I am going to assume we will be unable to get the special glasses made of durable plastics in the future. And as bad as my eyes are...I need this special, thinner lenses. Glass lenses may be the only alternative....and because of my bad eyes, glass lenses are extremely thick, heavy and impossible for me to wear.
That being said...I am saving every pair of glasses I have right now. Whether the perscription is current or not....and I have my eyes checked every year and buy a new pair every year.
I figure in 10 or 20 years, if i cannot get new glasses...at least i will have old ones to fall back on that I can see somewhat out of. Better then none at all.
Along the same lines...what will insulin dependant diabetics do. Or severe asmatics....or transplant patients who depend on anti-rejection drugs...or epileptics. Will they be able to get their medicines?
The medicine issue is of particular concern to me as both my parents require daily medication for survival.
They are quite worried too, as I have told them in no uncertain terms that should they become a burden in their later years, it's into the Thermal Depolymerization machine they go.
I really enjoyed reading MadScientist's post. When the SHTF, you'll be livin large!
Well, I'm still in grad school and my wife and I have a little nest egg but a greater amount of debt, including school loans so I won't be buying any acreage anytime soon, unless things go really well. That has been the goal, for a few years anyways, even before I knew about peak oil. Buying land, building a cob/strawbale/natural home generating solar/wind/microhydro power if possible, growing food, and otherwise getting back to the land, etc.
I guess what I need to emphasize right now is what MadScientist mentioned about building "social capital", making friends and building/strengthening relationships. In fact, I think that is the best and most important thing any of us can do. After all, life is about what we do with it, right? What we do with the time that we're given and friends and family are more important than having "stuff".
I still seem to be at the beginning, or at least less developed, compared to most people here. I've come to intellectually accept what will happen, but I don't think my heart has quite fully accepted it. I'm still relatively new to the entire concept of peak oil, so I've spent most of my time learning more about it, along with any other opposing viewpoints. Of course, many of the market or alternative enthusaists seem to be unable to refute key points of depletion, so I'm pretty much convinved that there will be some major changes.
I suppose dropping out of school was a minor action for me to do. Just about everyone I know thinks I'm crazy for doing it, but it would just end up being a waste of time. I still have to accomplish the first step before anything can be considered: talking and convincing people about peak oil.
The attention of my family has been extremely disappointing.
When I talked to my father about it, which was very odd, because we have been very distant from each other for a long time, he said that he was familiar with it, and concluded that the human race will solve it problems. What's worse is that I feel that he's using my willingness to talk to him to as a tool for him to make me adhere to his line of thinking, usually involving certain beliefs that I may not necessarily believe in, or simply don't care about because of their insignificance when compared to peak oil. I've suggested some reading to him, which he promised to read, but he seems to spend most of his time hooked on whatever version of radio propaganda he's into, and I don't think he'll read any of it. Talking to him is very frustrating, because he rarely listens, and seems to enjoy the sound of his voice more than anything else.
My brother is an almost typical teenager. I don't expect him to take anything seriously, and for some reason he never wants to talk about anything related to oil depletion. If I try to, he'll get incredibly angry. I don't think it has to do with the way I talk or how I present myself; I think that I'm pretty articulate and convincing, and some people have said the same thing, but my brother simply refuses to listen.
My mother doesn't take the subject very seriously, either. Whenever I present the fundamental idea, she'll think of some ridiculously simple minded solution. I'll refute whatever idea she has, and she'll act as if I never said anything. I've suggested certain reading to her, but she doesn't read anything but entertainment books, and I don't believe that she will read certain things that challenge her gluttonous way of life unless I hold a gun to her head.
Trying to talk to them about it without being intrusive is hard enough, but when the conversation develops naturally, and ends up being a waste of time, it is absolutely frustrating. I've even considered making friends and building a community with like-minded people and leaving them, because there is no point in all of us gettin gin trouble. Of course, that's from my emotionless side, and I haven't reached a point of where I would realistically consider such an option.
The one thing that the family members in the house tend to believe is that when things get bad, they will start doing something about it. When I tell them that that's what everyone would do, making us nothing more than another group of bodies, they act as if I said nothing, which is followed by me taking massive intakes of nicotein and smoke flowing out of my ears.
The next step I plan on taking is buying a few guns, along with some other supplies that I'll have ready when the time comes. I'm going to continue discussing the issue with my parents, and I'll keep trying to get them to sell the house, which is another concern of theirs, because I think getting a loan from the bank to occupy their beloved house in the suburbs is one of their most prized achievments.
The assessment of the situation looks horrid so far, but I suspect that gradual events, particularly a draft, will change their characters considerably, and will be much more receptive to what people much smarter than I have to say. If anyone had similar problems with stubborn family members and found a way to make them take action, I'd love to hear about what you did. It helps to remember that I'm only a kid, and I have absolutely no decision power, partially because my family won't take me seriously.
Hey Itch, don't give up on your family just yet!
Sure, they don't want to hear about peak oil or can't (or won't) fully understand the implications.
Not much you can do about that.
It's old adage of you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
Perhaps you're moving to fast for them? You seem to have accepted POT and the most dire possible consequences as fact. That's a big big leap for most people - trying to get them to sell their house and change their lifestyle is only going to antagonize them if they're not even with the basics of oil depletion.
And you know, no matter how you try and sell it to them - they may just disagree anyway! That's people for ya!
However, try and stay positive with them. Avoid the PO topic for a while.
Because if the SHTF anytime soon, you'll need all the family support you can get and so will they!
BTW if you succeed in getting a teenager to take anything seriously then you will have achieved something of a minor miracle! _________________ Burning the midnight oil, whilst I still can.
I want to say something, and this won't take long I hope, but after I got out of high school, I had the opportunity to go to university. I really wanted to, a little liberal arts school, I love literature and history...but with the situation looking as it does, said I, it will be a waste of time to do "liberal arts" when survival is what will matter.....one could see that the energy situation was already showing signs of crisis.....and other raw materials were showing signs of depletion....I was fascinated by automobiles and auto companies, but when I said anything about working for them in engineering or management, to help improve the efficiency of that industry, friends and family laugh, they say, "which car company can survive in a world without fuel or cheap metels, glass and plastics....?" And I agreed, I felt it would be unlikey for any of them to be good employers....and what other business could survive in such an economic environment? Why, how, can you go to school in such an environment? Didn't my parents, my guidence counseler, my friends understand what a waste planning and educating for a career was....?
So I took menial labor jobs, and stayed in rented little cheap apartments, and waited to see which way the wind would blow....or stayed with friends or family through the roughest part of the downturn....and a year or two went by, and 4 and 10, because you see, I graduated high school in 1977.....when fuels was considered GONE, and interest rates were 18 percent and unemployment was 12 percent, and no one, NO ONE believed America had a future.....
I went back to community college a few years ago, and began rebuilding my life and career, and got an office job, instead of a store clerks or a waiters job......now, all this may make you think I do not accept Peak Oil, but I in fact, do believe that it is a valid theory, with very, very big consequences. I also believe this: no matter which way it goes, YOU WILL NEED TO BE EDUCATED TO THE GREATEST POSSIBLE EXTENT. We need technicians, designers, engineers, alternative energy poineers now more than ever, and they better be SMART if we intend to get through this period as well as we want to, and need to! It may sound strange to say that you can be in acceptance of peak oil theory and still be an optimist, but take it from some old guys who were pessimists in the 1970's, pessimists do badly whether there is a crisis or not.....I managed to miss the greatest economic boom and the greatest period of prosperity in history all through my young adulthood because I was NEGATIVE! Hey, trains ran on steam not too many years ago, they don't now but there are still trains! Ships ran on wind not too many years ago, they don't now, but they may again, (with efficient windsails designed by a new generation of educated young designers!) "May we live in interesting times", is both a blessing and a curse, depending on how we accept it....I think the years ahead will be as challenging as the original settling of the U.S. was, and am looking forward to the look, the sound and the feel of a new post industrial America! But I will need to finish my college, EDUCATION ALWAYS WAS AND ALWAYS WILL BE THE KEY!
Joined: Apr 21, 2004 Posts: 508 Location: Republic of Texas
Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:45 am Post subject:
Mechanical engineering is a good field regardless of the future. You can work in almost any industry, and that type of engineering knowledge would be valuable regardless of how severely peak oil affects the future.
I encourage everyone to pursue higher education of ANY kind. Like learning Algebra without learning arithmetic first, some things require prerequisite studies to understand. Learning how to learn is the most important by-product of college.
In addition, as a technology manager myself, I can tell everyone from personal experience that hiring managers like myself, are more interested in how well you learn new things, than they are in how well you know any specific college subject. Unless you go on to a masters or doctorate, or study in specific technical disciplines, we have to "train" you to work in our companies environment anyway, so that ultimately it matters more how well you learn & adapt to new material, than any past accomplishments.
I do not suggest that you neglect your education in more practical matters, like survival issues. In fact, the more well rounded you are, the more successful in a variety of situations.
Was it Leeann who first mentioned the "dual approach" or Pops? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6501 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2004 7:35 pm Post subject:
Here is an update on the topic of assessments and plans.
My assessment is essentially the same.
Our plans are coming together nicely. The market here in Central Ca is at the crazy peak when rising interest rates make people really hot to buy. I feel a little sorry for the folks buying our place cause I like them and am afraid of what will happen out here soon. Anyway, they’ve made a full price offer on our place and we’ve made an offer on a good 40ac in SW Mo. Closing should be 9/1 if all goes well.
The old (100 yr plus) 2-story home there is very solid (and the wife thinks she can make it very cute), the land is silty loam and looks like it can grow most anything with some work. There is a large metal-framed shop, animal barn, silo and several outbuildings. I will plant approx. 10ac to woodlot, 10 to permanent pasture, a couple to orchard and 15 plus to row-crops, hay and grain.
The current owners are Amish and have been selling truck garden produce from the house – built in goodwill; I hope to do the same in addition to my regular job – print graphics. Actually I kind of hope my regular job will become my old job eventually.
Given another 30 years of cheap oil, life will be good, given another 3 years; life will be better than where we are now.
Not to be rude, but no comment in this thread is necessary – just your assessments and plans please. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
I would very much like to change my lifestyle, including selling our home and buying in another cheaper area preferably with some land and a water source. Close to family. My husband is unwilling to discuss PO with me. It depresses him.
So, I am left gathering as much information as possible. I'm book learning about gardening, and whatever else I can find that would be useful to know. I plan to start a garden next year *its too late in the season to start now*
Its all I can do right now, and I wish I could do MUCH more.
Joined: Jun 18, 2004 Posts: 754 Location: Western North Carolina
Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:28 pm Post subject:
Pops,
Nice post. I must say that I really admire your efforts at preparation.
I only wish that my wife and I, plus 2 young daughters could be that far along. I wish I had learned about this two or three years ago instead of a few months ago.
I restore old cars and drag race for a hobby (well I used to anyway). Now I'm in the process of selling off the old car all the accumulated "hot" parts I have. My wife believes like I do that PO is inevitable.
We have changed our priorities big time. No more chasing after the newest "thing" or hottest "performance part". If it won't have use after peak then I ain't buying it! LOL. Wife has come around on that too, albeit a little slower than I would like.
The new priority is to have all of our debt paid off in two years. That represents a fairly large amount of education debt. Means we'll be living on the cheap till the debt is gone.
We are selling our current home. It will go on the market next month. Like you we want out of suburbia before the int. rates go up and RE values crash. We will rent a house nearby until such time that our debt is paid.
With that done we plan to relocate to western NC, preferably to a small town. Personally, I would like 10-15 Acres and a house not unlike you described. Being near a town would help me to find a suitable income. Plans in that vein are still somewhat nebulous though. They will becomce more clear as the departure date approaches.
Also, we've taken all of our discretionary money out of the stock market, as we anticipate a coming "market correction".
Short term we are beginning to stock up on some supplies and equipment that would make our transition easier should things start to deteriorate before we can leave our current location in Lousiana.
I just hope the world gives us maybe three more years in its current state.
Some people think it won't. I have my doubts but have no choice and must proceed like it will.
Assessment:
My best guess is that we will see a series of brief supply side shocks followed by longer plateaus. The shocks will last 3 to 6 months followed by 2 to 3 year plateaus as alternate energy sources ramp up (and are ultimately found insufficient as oil becomes scarcer). If there is a SHTF type of crash it won’t be for some time. My biggest concern is that we will abandon the environment as we seek the quick fix alternatives (coal, nukes, etc). The biggest issues will be transportation and agriculture. Power for our homes won’t be affected until agricultural demands for natural gas based fertilizers begin to compete with power plants and even then we should be able to adjust. Transportation gets hit first, so our close by community becomes much more important.
What we have done:
Conserved – We use about 350 KWH of electricity a month (down form 700) and could go quite a bit lower by not using our Electric Dryer or the Dish Washer and switching the Electric Stove to gas etc.., etc…etc...
Installed Solar Power – We have installed a solar hot water heater (with a flash water heater as backup). Our PV panels are delivering 12 KWH a day.
What’s next?
Install solar heating in our current house.
We are planning to move to a more rural environment, where we also happen to have more family. Build a new passive solar home with active PV’s/Hot Water/Hot Air. Learn to garden better. Plant sorghum, build a still (So we can see if our dual fuel van really is) Get a pair of Oxen and a cart just in case. Do more for ourselves and our local community.
Posted: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:31 am Post subject: I might do somthing extemly insane.
So far my plan is to spread the word and tell everyone I can.
I've known about peak oil for about a week. I first read Matt's book website, and started indulging in "end of the sytem" fantasies. Next day I read more and more sites and sources and started taking it more seriously. I read of ASPO conferences and took in what they said each and everyone can do to help. One thing was to tell people about peak oil and spread the awareness. Another thing was to AVOID PROFITERING- I couldn't agree more.
Itch, I can totally relate to you. I tried telling my dad about PO and he didn't take me seriously, said "don't worry, the situation will work itself out, look at how we came over problems in WW1/2, we have advanced so much then, humans can over come this when the problem's at hand" It was extremly frustrating. It told my 25 yr old brother who's a pro-bush, republican, christian, "know a lot" and he said (almost like he already knew about PO) "We're already switching to different energies, hydrogen is gona be the new fuel, there is more hydrogen than any energy, it comes from water, you can make it from sewage if you want. There's a new solar plant in Australia." So I took in mind his refutation and searched- peak oil hydrogen. Sure enough; the first site I found said, in big letters on the top, "Don't be fooled by Bush's new 'hydrogen freedom fuel'" learned it was an energy carrier/ loser and then my brother tried to tell me you only need any kind of energy to make the hydrogen, any engine or motor can be converted into a human powered generater. The ignorance of his solution made me more sad than laugh and I kinda gave up on him. Since then I have been using all my free time studying about peak oil and telling people about it. I tried telling everyone in chat rooms, but the only kinda of chat rooms I have access to is on WarCraft 3 battle.net (multiplayer game). Most people tell me to shut up or say "conspiracy b*llsh*t, shut up" but I did get one 15yr old to google search- Peak Oil and he did and told me he would tell his family. A miracle.
I found this site and forum and started reading. (may sound corny but) I left some poem I wrote way back and some drivel in a thread called eugenics, from user name G.T.E. I am 23, a fast learner but not very educated. I spent my whole life doing art- drawing characters, graffiti, poping, beatboxing, and writing flows. I don't know if how much it will help after peak oil, or oil crash, but it has helped me value a non-physical possesion over anything.
"The poorer get poorer, as the richer get richer,
the world gets worse, ARE YOU GETTING THE PICTURE?"
I read pips note and it made me a tiny bit sick I have to say. Then I read MadScientist's and a few others who spoke of the importance of forming community, props guys. My biggest fear of this, besides blind anarchy, is people profiting off their knowledge of peak all instead off spreading the word. I fear of the money gap streching farther and farther because of PO. And (sickly) I somtimes fear the crash will slope too slow for people to abandon the respect for the concept of property rites. Making rich get extremly rich and poor dying from starvation too fast to have the numbers needed to raise each fist against the illusion of "us and them."
It's hard to think like this, and not be disregarded as a "hippie", in a system in which people make money of people competing against one another.
I sometimes think certain people will take advantage of there knowledge of peak oil to better themselves and their family but not others. Realisticlly, I know it might have to come down too a survival situation-- "Only enough oxegen in the tank for two of us three, sorry, Bob, you have to drown."-- but it still sickens me. Help me out, Matt, or anyone- I haven't heard the government say anything about peak oil and I wonder if it's because they know and plan to profit off it? Help me under stand this. Oh and I'll by the book too.
Positively thinking, I think I might spend all my energy spreading the word. I live in a small town north of SanFransico and will start posting flyers all over about peak oil with a contact number to possibly set up meetings in the community.
I really want everyone of us (the concept of them- out of the equation) to know about this so we can invest remaining energy into solarpower before it's way to hard to- making the enevitable energy gap smaller and preventing more starvation/suffering/dieoff. ASPO says we should try to inform as many people as possible and to AVOID PROFITERING. Profit is very self-serving. And for "I and I" we are all in this together.
changing the tune...
I'M DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT THIS:
I have seriously thought of pulling a "F*** HMO's" Remember that guy who stopped traffic on the freeway, with a gun to his head, wrote "F*** HMO's" really big with white spray-paint on the ground, tried to light himself on fire, but couldn't, then shot himself, they caught it live from the air, it was all over the news. I am a real crazy artist. From time to time I get suicidal and think of a good cause to sacrifice myself for. Please stop me from doing somthing unnessary or stupid. Or tell me what I should write on the freeway. I think I might write "PEAK OIL" or "google search- PEAK OIL"
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