Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 1190 Location: Zoorope
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:25 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
Quote:
Would that Dr Bahktiari were alive to witness it! Goddess bless him.
May sweet Ali Bakhtiari rest in peace in the arms of Allah. But I'm still not convinced he's really dead. Maybe because he was a good friend and I'can't surrender to his sudden mysterious death. _________________ **no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:20 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
FreddyH wrote:
IPM quarterlies plus today's new IEA world record of 87.2-mbd
Mmm, I seem to remember that they also posted world records in December and January (for the previous months), which turned out to be rather premature, with sharp downward revisions for both months (November and December). Isn't sharp downward revisions becoming a trend?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
It's out for December data, completing the year of 2007. Here's the monthly crude and lease condensate graph, still showing a plateau, even at record prices.
And here's an annual graph, which is pretty much plateau-like too. Those who would point to the 2000-2002 period as being the same as now and hence no peak now must remember that oil prices then weren't at record levels like today. Aren't high prices supposed to generate more supply? Economists?
To me, the "all liquids" number is getting more fake all the time. The crude oil coming out of the ground is the stuff that matters. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:03 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
A new IPM came out, and we have a new record (barely). January production exceeded May, 2005 by a staggering 168,000 barrels, up 0.23%.
So it seems we have a new peak (pending any revisions). Whatever, we're still on a plateau, with no real sign of it breaking out one way or the other. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 847 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
How does the new graph, with its new record, match up to a corresponding graph of world demand? My guess is that it will reveal that the gap is widening even with the new production record. The rate of separation might narrow with demand destruction but there is still increasing separation. The 'trailing peak' can appear to move around when the reality as to the actual timing of the peak will remain the same. This happens because of technology effecting reserve status and other more economic reassessment. Meanwhile people in Africa who have starved to death don't come back to life and businesses that have gone under don't re-emerge.
My guess extrapolated from the situation is that demand destruction is likely to get a whole lot worse. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Joined: Sep 25, 2005 Posts: 1976 Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
joewp wrote:
A new IPM came out, and we have a new record (barely). January production exceeded May, 2005 by a staggering 168,000 barrels, up 0.23%.
So it seems we have a new peak (pending any revisions). Whatever, we're still on a plateau, with no real sign of it breaking out one way or the other.
Table 1.1d is very odd, though. All of the OPEC figures have been revised, for every month and year in the table. The May 2005 figure, for OPEC, is 500,000 bpd more than in the previous IPM's table. And yet the total figure has not been revised. I haven't checked all of the other tables but it is almost inconceivable that the revisions for all other countries and regions would completely cancel out the revisions for OPEC, leaving the total figure unchanged.
So there must be a big question mark against the latest numbers. I notice that the release date on the main page still gives March, rather than April, so maybe these figures are still in flux.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1317 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
That last peak has the feeling of BS to me.
I'm wondering whether this is a fantasy made up to keep people from panicking, especially in light of the previous 'revisions'. _________________ Conservation is conservative
"Many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment."
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
Both IEA & EIA stats reveal a new Quarterly Record was set in 2008Q1. This metric is a more insightful, reliable indicator than their monthly stats. Because these staggering volumes precede the 2008 Megaprojects, it reduces the Underlying Decline Rate to 2.5% globally:
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Seattle
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
Freddy, if you don't mind me saying so, your purple-background graphs are very hard to read. Plus the type is too small on many of the items. If you want to communicate your information, you should strive for readability, not prettiness.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
TonyPrep wrote:
Table 1.1d is very odd, though. All of the OPEC figures have been revised, for every month and year in the table. The May 2005 figure, for OPEC, is 500,000 bpd more than in the previous IPM's table. And yet the total figure has not been revised. I haven't checked all of the other tables but it is almost inconceivable that the revisions for all other countries and regions would completely cancel out the revisions for OPEC, leaving the total figure unchanged.
So there must be a big question mark against the latest numbers. I notice that the release date on the main page still gives March, rather than April, so maybe these figures are still in flux.
In this release of the International Petroleum Monthly, there is one major change. A new aggregate, OPEC, is now reported for data for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the tables in the Petroleum (Oil) Production section, the Oil Balance section, and the Petroleum (Oil) Imports section. OPEC includes data for the thirteen countries that currently belong to OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. The previous aggregates OPEC-12, that excluded Ecuador, and OPEC-11, that excluded Angola and Ecuador, will no longer be reported. Revised data are shown in bold italic font.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Thanks, Joe. It was odd that all the OPEC figures were adjusted, then I finally realised that the OPEC-12 are now the OPEC-13 and all back figures have been adjusted to give an equivalent figure. The extra 500 kbpd are from Ecuador.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
The May IPM is out, and January's record has been revised down slightly, and February is now the new record at 74.657 million barrels a day. It still looks like a plateau to me. The impressive rise over the last few months appears to be moderating a bit.
Is this the last gasp over before depletion sets in? This latest bull run started in the first week of February. Perhaps there's less oil being pumped since then? Only time will tell.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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