I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 550 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:53 pm Post subject: Marion King Hubbert himself about the World Peak Oil
It's a very short 2 minutes clip not shown in Crude Awakening but from the same interview.
"OPEC countries are tempering this curve right now, courtailing production somewhat, so it's conceivable that this peak might be shifted to the back side by a little bit. We might cut off this rate of growth and stabilize, if we did that would extend this 80% by 7 or 10 years".
M. King Hubbert after Arab oil embargo in 1976.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 550 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:41 am Post subject: Re: Marion King Hubbert himself about the World Peak Oil
I don't use peakoil wiki, maybe there aren't so many peakoilwiki users _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Marion King Hubbert himself about the World Peak Oil
Alcassin wrote:
I don't use peakoil wiki, maybe there aren't so many peakoilwiki users
No reason to get your panties in a bunch. Most new users aren't
familiar with the links on the front page of this website, but they keep
posting anyway...
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject: Re: Marion King Hubbert himself about the World Peak Oil
Coolman wrote:
In fact you should thank God that it did not peak in 1995, it would have been even worse than it's going to be now.
Had his production profile come to fruition, Hubbert's forecast for 2008 was 63-mbd amid a 3.75% Decline Rate. His projected Peak of 111-mbd includes only Regular Conventional Oil, proc-gains & NGL.
Being awash in oil, it will never be known to what degree this would have retarded the unconventionals. That is, the 63-mbd does not include the tar sands, heavies, deep ocean, polar, bio, kerogen, ctl, gtl or synthetics that are abundant today and make up 14-mbd of All Liquids. If they were developed as aggressively, today's flow would be 77-mbd today.
All this speculation assumes that Hubbert's 111-mbd Peak would have been greeted by a similar call in Demand. I am skeptical that this challenge could have been met. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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