The 2008 PO.com Oil Price Challenge Sept 30

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 596

Freddy, how do you give values to each of the variables?

Given the decline in the dollar, which is not going to reverse any time soon, a realistic floor must be $60+ irrespective of the possibility of a build in spare capacity to 2002 levels wouldn't you agree?

FreddyH

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

New Standings: Data through Feb 20

SteinarN · Tar Sands Joined: Sep 20, 2007 Posts: 95 Location: Norway

That is just barely. It will be interesting to follow the development throughout the year. I guessed the oilprice wouldnt increase much from the level in nov/des last year. That based on possibly relatively high levels of new oil coming online this year and next year if the megaproject site is thrustworty. However the oilprice has been surpricingly strong so far this year in spite of the subprime crisis in the US. We have to wait and see.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

Data as of the 26th (today and yesterday not in the books yet)

High Differential

Twilight 101.7
xarkz 100
mkwin 98.5
kmann 105
MC2 107
basil_hayden 109
zzzpeakoil 109.5
Concerned 109.75
SteinarN 112.3
Gerben 119

low differential

sjn 752 87
mekrob 142.92 87.86
zensui 160 88
SpringCreekFarm 166 88
Art_Vandelai 132.66 88.4
whereagles 125.21 88.55
eastbay 135 85
Bas 139.5 85
Narz 164 89
sparky 167 89
joewp 175 89

overall (high, low, close)

SteinarN 112.3 90.7 102.7 11.42 3.71 1.82 16.95
mkwin 98.5 82 90 2.38 4.99 10.88 18.25
zzzpeakoil 109.5 79.6 95.5 8.62 7.39 5.38 21.39
xarkz 100 78 88.14 85.1 0.88 8.99 12.74 22.61
ColossalContrarian 119.87 82.31 101.51 18.99 4.68 0.63 24.3
whereagles 125.21 88.55 105.23 24.33 1.56 4.35 30.24
Gerben 119 75 102 18.12 11.99 1.12 31.23
pup55 120.49 75.23 97.11 95.27 19.61 11.76 3.77 35.14
Concerned 109.75 72.24 88.75 8.87 14.75 12.13 35.75
skyemoor 128 84 108 27.12 2.99 7.12 37.23
basil_hayden 109 69 89 8.12 17.99 11.88 37.99

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

Gerben

I don't believe oil will set another record low for this year. That means that in my view the low ranks have been decided.
If I order the current top 10 by low difference I get:

LowDiff High Close
skyemoor 2.99 128 108
SteinarN 3.71 112.3 102.7
ColossalContrarian 4.68 119.87 101.51
mkwin 4.99 98.5 90
zzzpeakoil 7.39 109.5 95.5
Gerben 11.99 119 102

I don't have a chance any more to beat SteinarN unless the oilprice gets a new recordlow. I'm too far behind based on the current recordlow. I'm 8.28 behind there. If I guessed the exact high and close, that still won't be enough to win (7.4 difference in the best case).
It seems like the pessimists have been making the best low differential predictions. That is not a good sign. The best predictor (sjn) predicts $ 752/barrel...

anagami

hmm... Oil at $150 by the ending of this year? $200? Why not? a recession? maybe this Price Challenge ends with an inflation vrs deflation challenge...
_________________
anagami.net

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 596

It really is hard to judge the affect of the dollar collapse. Almost every commodity has taken off since August last year.

If there is a big financial collapse, many funds could be forced to liquidate commodity assets in order to cover margin calls on other assets so the price may collapse yet for assets as diverse as copper, gold, silver, platinum, wheat, soybeans, cocoa, grain and of course oil.

The rise in the price of oil before Christmas was justified on the basis of the stock draw downs and potential conflict with Iran both of which have subsided, this last rally is possibly a bull trap in a wider commodities bubble. Who knows how far it will go.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3679

sjn

Nicholai

145$ by years end sounds reasonable.