How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
We are currently above 100 on the nymex and everbody is passing it off like nothing. 6 Months ago people would be shitting themselves. Moral of the story: things are happening so fast that even the intelligent people here can't keep up. Scary.
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:37 am Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
Whether declared or not,It's "war on the middle class"as Lou Dobbs would say.You lose your middle class and you lose your democracy.What does blow my mind a little is that if your an individual trader in futures you can make money whether the market's going up or down,this bull market must be a way for hedge fund managers to reduce risk,not to mention the weak dollar and inflation.The money just keeps rolling in no matter what the fundamentals say.It's really scary that we've reached this point while supplies are building and if the economy really starts to nosedive,it'll take the rest of the world with it.World War 3 anyone? _________________ Gimme some demand destruction.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
As Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.
Joined: Mar 28, 2007 Posts: 337 Location: Cambs., UK
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
LastViking wrote:
As Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.
What planet are you living on? I've seen petrol and diesel here explode in price within a few months, along with domestic energy bills sky-rocketing to add insult to injury. Last I checked, the pound wasn't a lame duck of a currency like the dollari and we're certainly feeling it financially.
To say the US spot price is down entirely to the dollar's free-fall is simplistic at best, disinformation at worst. There's no way the dollar is a quarter of it's value from 2002, simple as. We may not be paying as much as Americans, but the rest of the world is paying for this crude that isn't growing at all that tremendous a rate. _________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER
Gazzatrone wrote:
So in 1980 oil cost $38 but actually cost $107... In 2008 we are paying $102 for a barrel of oil...
Why do these business experts I see on television try to ram this tripe down our throats?!?! Who really cares if we paid an adjusted price of $107/barrel back in 1980 but only $102/barrel in early 2008?!?!
The 1980 price was just a spike but there was no decline in oil production. Today, we have a steadily increasing price over a long term accompanied by an apparent plateau in production. This is putting an unexperimented strain on our economy.
What is more tiring? Holding 107 lbs for one minute or 102 lbs for 24 hours? Come on business gurus! There will be a time when this trick will no longer work.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
Valdemar wrote:
LastViking wrote:
As Frank & Crow have commented upthread, this has been mostly an American-centric episode since Autumn. Most of the planet's users are paying less than before. Via oil & gasoline prices, Americans are not seeing a commodity seachange as is implied in many of their comments here. They are simply seeing how crappy their buck is. The shock they feel at the cash register is similar to that experienced in Argentina, Mexico and long ago in New Zealand ... in short, it sucks while your currency is being devalued by the global community.
What planet are you living on? I've seen petrol and diesel here explode in price within a few months, along with domestic energy bills sky-rocketing to add insult to injury. Last I checked, the pound wasn't a lame duck of a currency like the dollari and we're certainly feeling it financially.
To say the US spot price is down entirely to the dollar's free-fall is simplistic at best, disinformation at worst. There's no way the dollar is a quarter of it's value from 2002, simple as. We may not be paying as much as Americans, but the rest of the world is paying for this crude that isn't growing at all that tremendous a rate.
Methinx that you meant that spot is up ... not down. Here in Canada, our dollar has gained 65% against the buck. NO PAIN here when filling up. Today, it's 50-cents a gallon cheaper than filling up during the big spike back in 2005. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER
ChefBoyardee wrote:
The 1980 price was just a spike but there was no decline in oil production. Today, we have a steadily increasing price over a long term accompanied by an apparent plateau in production. This is putting an unexperimented strain on our economy.
Sorry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Mar 28, 2007 Posts: 337 Location: Cambs., UK
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
FreddyH wrote:
Methinx that you meant that spot is up ... not down. Here in Canada, our dollar has gained 65% against the buck. NO PAIN here when filling up. Today, it's 50-cents a gallon cheaper than filling up during the big spike back in 2005.
Methinks you need to look at your reading comprehension, as you'd know if I meant the price was down, I'd have put a comma there (you selectively highlighted part of a sentence for starters). But I didn't, and so I meant something completely different. Try again.
And there is pain here. And the price is far higher than it was in October. And our pound has gained against the dollar. Your point?
FreddyH wrote:
Sorry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco.
Funny how we didn't have Big Oil and international energy organisations considering peak oil at that time then, you know, like we do now. I find it funny how you say there's no visible strain on the economy from oil, it's only that pesky credit crunch instead.
Well, that's okay then. We'll just ignore this financial meltdown in the making because it's not down to oil. Thank Jebus, I thought we were in trouble then. Oh, wait... _________________ "Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
Last edited by Valdemar on Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 BUT STILL NOT HIGHEST EVER
FreddyH wrote:
Sorry grasshopper, but u are wrong on all counts: the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58. Production did not reattain that 67-mbd level 'til 1991. This episode of price spikes started in 2003 right after the Iraq2 and production has risen with it from 78-mbd to 87. And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy. Most economists agree that the the drop in GDP growth (0.8% vs 3.5%) is substantially due to the money crunch associated with the sub prime mtg fiasco.
Interesting stuff! If what you say is true, prompting me to do some of my own personal research, then I thank you in advance FreddyH for the correction. We should never fear to face the truth.
The one thing that I have an objection with is that you say "And there is absolutely no visible strain on the economy." This is by no means a tit for tat reply. However I, and perhaps many other readers, would find that a little hard to believe.
It's time for me to do some more research...
One possibly corrected Chef Boyardee
Last edited by ChefBoyardee on Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5347 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 10:40 pm Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
Quote:
the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58
So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1599 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 2:31 am Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
DantesPeak wrote:
Quote:
the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58
So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?
And I guess that the Iran-Iraq war didn't severely curtail both country's oil extraction and the US didn't have one of it's most severe recessions lasting until 1983? _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 2:41 am Post subject: Re: OIL PASSES $102 AND NOW THE HIGHEST EVER
DantesPeak wrote:
Quote:
the 1980 spike forced production to drop from 67-mbd to 58
So I guess what is being said here is that Iran reduced it's oil production in 1979 from 6 million bpd to zero because it was reacting to market forces and not the widespread effects of the Iranian revolution?
U are misinformed wrt Iran, Dante. If u visit the BP website, u will find that Iran peaked way back in 1974 @ 6.1-mbd. By 1979, its production had halved to 3.2-mbd and the low for Iran was 1.3-mbd in 1981. Only 2-mbd of the 9-mbd collapse that i mentioned was attributable to Iran.
The drop in production that i referred to is almost exclusively attributable to Saudi Arabia. Those too young to remember the politics of the period will not be aware that KSA shuttered almost 80% of its capacity from 1980 to 1985. The KSA monthly crude record was set (and still stands) in Nov/1980 @ 10.4-mbd. By Aug/1985 the flow was only 2.3-mbd. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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