Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:11 am Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
Well, the rich are also being advised now to prepare for a meltdown. They are advised to buy remote farmland and stocking it with FOOD and other essentials, including guns. Same stuff we've been saying on this thread and this planning forum for years.
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with ``seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.''
The ``etc.'' must mean guns.
``A few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,'' he writes in his new book, ``Wealth, War and Wisdom.''
Biggs is no paranoid survivalist. He was chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners. He doesn't lock and load until the last page of this smart look at how World War II warped share prices, gutted wealth and remains a warning to investors. His message: Listen to markets, learn from history and prepare for the worst.
On this board, we have all wondered what would happen when the public woke up to the reality of oil depletion and overconsumption, looks like we are close to finding out.
As they are telling the rich, PREPARE NOW!
If you have no money, GET FIT, START WALKING, START MOVING.
Barton Biggs is well known to people who read Morgan Stanley equity research. I think there's about five of us. Anyway, he's the biggest doomer on wall street. He's called 30 of the last two recessions and would never have gotten involved in the tech boom from 1990 all the way through.
He may COINCIDENTALLY be right, but it would just be random luck. He's been talking like that for years and years. Nobody's going to go back and read his work, but if you did, you'd see that the sky's been falling for a looooong time according to him.
It is kind of worth it to open up an IRA at Morgan Stanley just so you can get their equity research. Deposit $2K in an IRA, put it in whatever you want, and get their research emailed to you every week.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2018 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Ayoob,
Is the US really broke, or is that a lie?
When was the last time national housing prices declined?
All I know is, there is a storm brewing, certainly for us in the US, and, if things are as bad on the streets with the brothers as you say they are, things will not be pretty. The US is changing. I don't know about the rest of the world, don't really care bc it doesn't affect me, but for the US, there is change coming.
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
Ayoob,
Is the US really broke, or is that a lie?
When was the last time national housing prices declined?
All I know is, there is a storm brewing, certainly for us in the US, and, if things are as bad on the streets with the brothers as you say they are, things will not be pretty. The US is changing. I don't know about the rest of the world, don't really care bc it doesn't affect me, but for the US, there is change coming.
I'm not arguing with you, bud. I read some of the same news you do and have come to similar conclusions. What I was trying to say was that Barton Biggs is an extreme outlier in his prognostication.
That's all. He's been crying about the falling sky for fifteen years. This is just another in a very long string of statements he's made. If I were in your shoes right now, what I would do is to consider that he's been saying the same thing for a very long time now. For that reason, I wouldn't base my TIMING on something BB says.
If I were looking for signals for TIMING, I would look very closely at Warren Buffet's quarterly newsletter, I would look at GWB's personal investments in terms of his ranch and his purchases of property overseas. Those are very interesting and enlightening. I would look at Cheney's portfolio of TIPS and eurobonds, Buffet's position in silver and railroads, etc.
In the same way, I wouldn't look towards gold bugs who have been saying the exact same thing since the mid-80's for information that would cause me to time the market one way or the other.
Keep in mind that Barton Biggs is one side of the Hegelian dialectic when it comes to discussing the range of options that the rich may decide to choose from.
I think it's useful to know that BB is considered to be the extreme outsider, who's probably nuts, and that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Does that sound familiar? The truth may be further to the outside than even BB's position points to.
I don't think very highly of BB in any case. He may be right, but my grandfather's broken watch is going to be right twice today, and every day, for many years to come. I don't plan on consulting it for useful information, though.
I think YOU have a better bead on the situation than BB does. I would be more inclined to listen to your assessment than I would be inclined to listen to his. I have much more confidence in my own assessment of our economy than any economist I know of. Things have panned out pretty much as I have expected them to, and I think I know what's going to happen as things play out.
Over time, my attitude about the brothers has become less important to me than my attitude about my fellow man. I feel like I live in a nation of dodo birds who have lived in peace for so long that they've lost all their defense mechanisms. That's much more interesting to me.
In closing, remember that the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2018 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Ayoob,
Like you, I'm certain also, based on what I've seen the last few years, that the people that post here are ever bit as good at seeing or predicting things that the "experts" on t.v. In fact, I've often found that some of the MSM articles seem like they plagerize some of the thoughts and ideas here. The advice that people can and do offer here literally has been and is priceless. People offer advice not for any financial reward, but because they care.
TPTB will always remain irrational, but, that's why we, individually, have to stay grounded in what matters and not play their silly little games. In the end, it all boils down to power and people just have to have their own invisible lines in the sand, and realize that the monopoly money our society operates on is only that, monopoly money - it has no value. Solvency is something found on the inside of your heart, not in your wallet.
Interestingly, the upper middle class is starting to worry. They are starting to pay attention now that home prices and company profits, along with company bonuses are dropping. Why is that important? Because it was the upper middle class, the nobility of the day, that produced men like Jefferson, Washington, Adams, etc. That's when real change comes about, for better or for worse.
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:12 am Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
In the Housing Collapse thread, shortonoil proposed we start a thread on living outside the credit economy, since there's a fine chance we may soon need to. How about here?
Obviously, it is important to position ourselves to preserve assets, get money protected from bank crashes, and provide for basic needs. But what is the nature of life without available use of credit cards, and access to checking accounts?
A Financial Meltdown is truly conceivable if one or more of the biggest banks go down, causing a domino effect of bank crashes. The Arabs are suggesting that they won't prop up Citibank any further. The word on the "street" is that prime brokers have increased the cost of money to Hedge Funds, which could take down a lot of those funds with margin calls. For the first time, the FED numbers show that all, ALL, required bank reserve funds are borrowed. They are technically insolvent. Meanwhile, Bernanke is suggesting that banks take mortgage losses by reducing the principal on underwater loans! Banks with the scope of problems we are seeing are unstable indeed.
How do we prep for such an event? I don't think it's an academic question any more. I think it's on the way. One European analyst group pointed to September of '08 as the end point of our debacle in the US, and projected the pain would go worldwide.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3865 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:01 am Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse wrote:
Ayoob,
Like you, I'm certain also, based on what I've seen the last few years, that the people that post here are ever bit as good at seeing or predicting things that the "experts" on t.v. In fact, I've often found that some of the MSM articles seem like they plagerize some of the thoughts and ideas here. The advice that people can and do offer here literally has been and is priceless. People offer advice not for any financial reward, but because they care.
TPTB will always remain irrational, but, that's why we, individually, have to stay grounded in what matters and not play their silly little games. In the end, it all boils down to power and people just have to have their own invisible lines in the sand, and realize that the monopoly money our society operates on is only that, monopoly money - it has no value. Solvency is something found on the inside of your heart, not in your wallet.
Interestingly, the upper middle class is starting to worry. They are starting to pay attention now that home prices and company profits, along with company bonuses are dropping. Why is that important? Because it was the upper middle class, the nobility of the day, that produced men like Jefferson, Washington, Adams, etc. That's when real change comes about, for better or for worse.
With all the doom and silliness here, I'm with seahorse about there also being a significant amount of truly insightful analysis, discussion and projections here.
Also, if the terms "permadoom" and permadoomer" have not been coined, I want to do that right now. Not that it describes me, of course. _________________
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Spear,
I'm sure he's referencing that group that has been on here repeatedly saying this is it. Global Insight 2000 or something like that. Hopefully, Patience will have a link.
Patience, if you are preparing at all, that's about all you can do. Try to get out of debt, have some food put back, have some cash put back, save your old clothes etc to barter with later. Get in shape. Have good friends and contacts who can provide services that can be bartered and exchanged for other services.
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
seahorse,
Yup, done all that. What I'm wondering is, if we can't predict where prices are going, what can we do with some cash? Banks, paper investments, Muni bonds, etc., are off my radar. Gold, silver, and commodities are bubblicious! The dollar is falling like a rock. If I keep cash, and the whole finacial system implodes, who knows what cash will be worth? Is it king, or, does it get re-issued in some ill-conceived govt stick-save?
We could have the dollar go any direction from here, but I'm guessing it will fall for a while, but really have no confidence in that.
Where is the safe haven for savings? Does that exist at the moment? Ain't got much, but it's all I've got. Doing nothing is also a decision....
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Situation don't change the rules for living, which is, everything in balance, or, put another way, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Who knows what to do, except try to balance everything, including any savings. Some in cash, some in precious metals, there are no easy answers. There is definitely a storm brewing, and some luck will be necessary, but as they say, luck will often save you enough, if your courage holds out.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3865 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
patience wrote:
seahorse,
Yup, done all that. What I'm wondering is, if we can't predict where prices are going, what can we do with some cash? Banks, paper investments, Muni bonds, etc., are off my radar. Gold, silver, and commodities are bubblicious! The dollar is falling like a rock. If I keep cash, and the whole finacial system implodes, who knows what cash will be worth? Is it king, or, does it get re-issued in some ill-conceived govt stick-save?
We could have the dollar go any direction from here, but I'm guessing it will fall for a while, but really have no confidence in that.
Where is the safe haven for savings? Does that exist at the moment? Ain't got much, but it's all I've got. Doing nothing is also a decision....
There is a euro ETF where you can basically trade your dollars for euros. I don't have the symbol right now, but that's an option if you want cash, just not U.S. cash.
Then there is always my go-to, the Permanent Portfolio mutual fund--symbol PRPFX. Finest doomer sleep aid you will find. _________________
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
patience wrote:
seahorse,
Yup, done all that. What I'm wondering is, if we can't predict where prices are going, what can we do with some cash? Banks, paper investments, Muni bonds, etc., are off my radar. Gold, silver, and commodities are bubblicious! The dollar is falling like a rock. If I keep cash, and the whole finacial system implodes, who knows what cash will be worth? Is it king, or, does it get re-issued in some ill-conceived govt stick-save?
We could have the dollar go any direction from here, but I'm guessing it will fall for a while, but really have no confidence in that.
Where is the safe haven for savings? Does that exist at the moment? Ain't got much, but it's all I've got. Doing nothing is also a decision....
I'm getting as much useful stuff as possible with the remaining time before I'm too poor to buy anything. Cast iron cookware is my passion right now. If all else fails I can always cook on it. I have a big cauldron that I can use for stone soup if it comes to it. Seriously, I think that tangibles are the best investment for us little people. The other thing I wish I had was a small wood cookstove, but the price is high for a good one. A bicycle trailer, a piece of arable land, an electric car and a small sailboat for use as a bug out vehicle are the the next things I hope to acquire. They may be out of reach now. I may still get this, just to haul groceries or wood if we need it:
The truth is that it all may not work out anyway. We're stocking up on storeable foodstuffs and staples. We may be using them up, wearing them out, making do and doing without soon.
I wish I was wrong, but it looks like here it comes. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 3865 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: Surviving a Financial Meltdown
Switching out the batteries in your car with Optima yellow top deep cycle batteries will give you a good emergency power source. They last a LONG time as well.
Don't worry, the yellow tops have plenty of CCAs for starting the car. I've had one in one of my cars for two years and it's great to be able to listen to the radio as long as you want without worrying about running the battery down.
Great batteries.
Freezer in the garage full of food is good too. _________________
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