Tips for future investment sought

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2333

As the stock markets are possibly nearing their low and as oil is past peak, what do people think are now the best companies to invest in for a 5 year doubling or quadrupling of stock price?

Is it solar or wind or is it in LED lighting manufacturers?
It does seem that the green companies will be the longer term big winners.

Will one solar company be a better buy than another and is wind power going to be monopolised by CWP?

Or is it all f***** so go party?
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RonMN · Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST IN WHO?

I believe it was during the jimmy carter era stagflation...

Gold went from $35 to $800 an ounce. For ease of arguments sake, let's say its value went up 20 times.

If we start around now...let's say $900 an ounce (I know it's currently $972), that means within 3 or 4 years, gold should be around $18,000 per ounce. Silver should do even better on a percentage basis!

However, never put all your eggs in one basket...I wouldn't put more than 5 - 10 % of your overall net worth into PMs.

Other than that, I have never been afraid of the stock market...but I am now.

There has never been a reason to question the security of municipal bonds...but there is now. I'm even starting to question the security of treasury bonds & the FDIC.

I have changed my investment strategy to "forget about earnings...just try to keep what you have". I'll wait for 6-12 months & see if I can then change this strategy.

Some still being spent on food stock-pile & ammo.

Interesting times we live in...
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Micki

Gold started at $35 back in 71.
If you want to make a comparison of move you should probably base it on a price in the range 250-295 from 2001 and then multiply 20 times.
This is of course based 70's development, which had much better economical fundamentals than US has now. So if we assume fed will continue the (hyper)inflationary path, you cannot long term project a max price. The sky is the limit. So you need to keep adjusting you price target as you go.

Question; you put 5-10% in PMs. Stocks and bonds are dangerous so you stay out of these(?) some money goes on ammo. Where do you put the rest????? I would suggest you put at least 25% in physical metal. >20% in mining shares. Some in energy shares.
Then put a small amount every month into junior mining/exploration. High risk but potential for explosive returns.
It seems the funds have shorted a lot of the smaller companies and invested in the bigger. The short positions are about to blow up in their faces.
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mmasters

I wouldn't invest in companies at all.

I say go for a mix of Euros, Franks, Yen and Ag futures with some gold and oil on the side.

Also get ready to go bargain hunting in the next few months. As people get more desperate precious items will hit the market at bargain prices.
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Micki

For most novice investors trading FX is too hard. Simply exchanging US$ to Yen and stashing in your matress doesn't seem to make sense. But I agree agricultural stocks could benefit tremendeously from the inflationary environment together with the depleted warehouses. Wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing the chinese soon importing western food as well, at least if/when they let the yuan appreciate a descent amount.
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TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 300

I think both Vanguard and Fidelity have a mutual fund for the energy sector. Why put your eggs in a few baskets (stocks) when you can diversify away the portion of the risk associated with individual stocks.

TF

BigTex

Permanent Portfolio mutual fund. 25% gold, 25% long term bonds, 25% stocks, 25% cash equivalents (with currency diversification).

Excellent all-weather returns.

Perfect if "minimizing future regret" is the goal.
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patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1405

I'm thinking that steel might be my "precious metal", since I run a farm repair shop, and sell some steel retail. Flat bars that I bought for $54/hundred lbs. in early Dec '07, now cost $83/hundred lbs. Up 55% in 3 mos. Not bad for watching it sit in my steel rack. And I can use it or sell it retail. Bronze bearing material has gone nuts too, along with import Chinese ball bearings, cutting tools, and carbide. Carbide scrap has gone from $7/lb last year to $8.50 and climbing. High speed steel scrap (dead drill bits) was $1.10/lb last summer, now $1.50/lb. New drills have doubled in price in a year.

Not for everyone, but it works for me, at least for a portion of my money.

WisJim

I invest in solar electric and wind electric, on a modest scale. I invest in physical installations that produce power at my home, and based on past experience, they should outperform many stocks and bonds, and certainly CDs, when figured as a return on dollars invested. And in the meantime they are producing power that I am using on a daily basis. Part of my investment is pictured in my avatar.

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1405

Back about 1980, we bought 2,000 lbs. of hard red wheat in 6 gal. nitrogen packed pails. By mixing in some local soft red wheat, we have only used 800 lbs. of it. The remaining 1200 lbs. is now worth around $1200. We only paid about $600 for the whole batch. Great inflation hedge! And we can eat it..

Starvid

RonMN

Micki Wrote:
Question; you put 5-10% in PMs. Stocks and bonds are dangerous so you stay out of these(?) some money goes on ammo. Where do you put the rest?????

Doin' my damndest to pay down my mortgage, and doin' some living for today, while I prepare for tomorrow.
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J-Rod

Fully 50% of my savings are in physical metal. The rest will be sent into rail, alternative energy funds, and agriculture commodities.
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evilgenius

Here's a risky bet for you. Right now you can buy companies that hold potential oil in places like Indonesia or West Africa. You can buy them cheaply. If the SHTF in the ME then those plays will go up a hundred times at least. The spike won't last long, but it will produce if there is war that cuts off the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
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mmasters