Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:48 am Post subject: Re: Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)
Less random gas shortage predictions might lend a little more creditability to the issue.
I remember a thread last March about how we would see major gas shortages across the US by summer. Well that came and went only to be followed up by another string of useless predictions for this summer.
The more people cry wolf, them less credibility this serious issue gets. People have been calling for energy shortages for 50 years, how do you convince people- Okay, NOW we are really serious, we have to do something?
Joined: Apr 05, 2007 Posts: 126 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)
I do think this is a very good point. there is a lot of "we're doomed" and "I hope it happens quickly to smite those nasty people who have been successful/not listened/not agreed with what i said" or simply people that shelled out a lot of money for a bunker in the middle of nowhere and are now beginning to getting a slight uneasy feeling that they might just be wrong (again) but then quickly rationalise it that it was that damned capitalist who sold them the bunker fault.
The net result: even more ridicule from members of the public, slightly better in Britain as important to have at least one eccenticity! and even more extreme angry people who embarassed that they have been shown to obe wrong seem to adopt a double or nothing approach.
The reality: PO is a pretty serious issue which is going to be a big contributor to an energy price/source crisis over the next decade which will hit the US and Africa the hardest and probably cause a prolonged recession until Chindia dig us all out of it c. ten years later. The earlier and wider the message is believed the less extreme and more managed this period will be.
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:26 am Post subject: Re: Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)
Smudger wrote:
The reality: PO is a pretty serious issue which is going to be a big contributor to an energy price/source crisis over the next decade which will hit the US and Africa the hardest and probably cause a prolonged recession until Chindia dig us all out of it c. ten years later. The earlier and wider the message is believed the less extreme and more managed this period will be.
I am far from a doomer (I am a pragmatist, a serious investor and I do research in the energy area), but I am also far from a blind optimist.
How/why do you know things will be that rosy?
How (exactly) will Chindia save us?
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)
Ming wrote:
Smudger wrote:
The reality: PO is a pretty serious issue which is going to be a big contributor to an energy price/source crisis over the next decade which will hit the US and Africa the hardest and probably cause a prolonged recession until Chindia dig us all out of it c. ten years later. The earlier and wider the message is believed the less extreme and more managed this period will be.
I am far from a doomer (I am a pragmatist, a serious investor and I do research in the energy area), but I am also far from a blind optimist.
How/why do you know things will be that rosy?
How (exactly) will Chindia save us?
Ming, it is very common knowledge here on peak oil dot com that
a) America will suffer because it is evil and produces nothing that anyone wants to buy;
b) Africa will suffer because they are poor and they have no commodities, base metals or energy to sell, but even if they did that neo-Colonialism means they are not properly organized anyway to manage their wealth, so it will be stolen by evil American companies;
c) India despite being economic basket cases for so long including floods, famines and ongoing civil wars to yet partition parts of the Indian sub-continent - India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kashmir, etc - into ever smaller ethnic enclaves is actually creating more knowledge than America; and
d) China is the source of all wealth as you can tell by their UN Human Development score and the state of their environment proving that 'China Inc's Jobs At Any Cost Policy' is far superior to any other economic model elsewhere in the world because they have a Trade Surplus and large Foreign Exchange Reserves, and apparently those are the only two economic criteria that count for anything?
So WTSHTF of course only Chindia with their far superior economic models and knowledge can save us poor misguided fools. Heck, they probably already have fusion all figured out? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:55 am Post subject: Re: Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down (CERA Report)
MrBill wrote:
a) America will suffer because it is evil and produces nothing that anyone wants to buy;
That is wrong. The United States produces a lot of internet blowhards who use and abuse their bandwidth like they do their kleenex box.
MrBill wrote:
b) Africa will suffer because they are poor and they have no commodities, base metals or energy to sell, but even if they did that neo-Colonialism means they are not properly organized anyway to manage their wealth, so it will be stolen by evil American companies;
true
MrBill wrote:
c) India despite being economic basket cases for so long including floods, famines and ongoing civil wars to yet partition parts of the Indian sub-continent - India, Pakistan, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kashmir, etc - into ever smaller ethnic enclaves is actually creating more knowledge than America; and
No one creates knowledge better than the US. We have patents, copywrites, and intellectual property in places other folks don't even have places. We've placed all our energies not into the manufacturing sphere but in our own belly buttons to create thoughts, theories, and investment schemes that are increasingly meaningless.
MrBill wrote:
d) China is the source of all wealth as you can tell by their UN Human Development score and the state of their environment proving that 'China Inc's Jobs At Any Cost Policy' is far superior to any other economic model elsewhere in the world because they have a Trade Surplus and large Foreign Exchange Reserves, and apparently those are the only two economic criteria that count for anything?
So WTSHTF of course only Chindia with their far superior economic models and knowledge can save us poor misguided fools. Heck, they probably already have fusion all figured out?
The United States won the Cold War and challenged China to beat us at our own game--making stuff. It was assumed this would eventually create a consumer class in China thus increasing demand for our intellectual property. But the Chinese (like the Japanese before them) have long memories. They didn't really lose the cold war, they just switched the flags around. The Chinese will soon own us and our toy manufacturing infrastructure and steal (as Brazil and Thailand already have in pharmaceuticals) our intellectual property for their own people. And there will be nothing we can do about it. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah shit
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah shit 
