Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:47 pm Post subject: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
The oil tanker tracker firm, Oil Movements, says OPEC oil exports have fallen significantly in March from February (February being a seasonal high), and are now down 500,000 bpd from peak shipment levels earlier in 2008. However this projected amount of shipments is still higher than the level before the last official OPEC production quota increase.
While not specifically stated here, a majority of the drop in exports is attributed to Mideast OPEC exporters.
Quote:
3/13/08 Oster Dow Jones 16:30:01
March 13, 2008
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To Mar 29 Seen Dn 100,000 B/D -Tracker
LONDON, Mar 13, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' seaborne oil shipments are expected to fall by 100,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to March 29 as the end of winter in the U.S. and Europe and seasonal refining maintenance crimp crude demand, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
OPEC exports are forecast to drop to 24.31 million barrels a day in the four-week period to March 29 from 24.41 million barrels a day in the previous four-week period to March 1, Oil Movements said in its weekly report.
"This is pretty standard. We're headed into spring (in the Northern Hemisphere) and refining maintenance is going up in North America and Europe and the Far East, so that will take crude demand down even more," said Oil Movements head Roy Mason.
OPEC shipments are down about 500,000 barrels a day since hitting a winter peak in February of 24.80 million barrels a day, Mason said.
Oil Movements, which forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of tankers from member countries other than Angola and Ecuador, said deliveries from core OPEC producers in the Middle East are forecast to fall by 120,000 barrels a day to 17.48 million barrels a day over the same timeframe.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
[No link yet]
Caution: Oil Movements tries to measures actual shipments, not production, and there is no seasonal adjustment factor in their reports.
Quote:
Platts: OPEC February Output Rises To 32.33M Barrels/Day
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
March 13, 2008 3:20 p.m.
Crude oil production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose 80,000 barrels a day in February, to 32.33 million barrels a day from 32.25 million in January, according to a Platts survey released Thursday.
Excluding Iraq, the 12 OPEC members bound by output agreements produced an average 29.93 million b/d in February, down from January's 29.96 million.
Despite the drop, the OPEC-12 still exceeded their 29.673 million b/d collective output target by 257,000 b/d.
Output increases totaling 190,000 b/d from Angola, Indonesia and Iraq were partly offset by decreases totaling 110,000 b/d from Ecuador, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
I was watching NBC news tonight, and they had a piece on the current economic conditions. Some film clips of foreclosed houses for sale, high gas pump prices and a chart of the Dow made me think I was watching "The End of Suburbia".
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2196 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
IEA calls emergency closed door meeting to discuss rising oil prices. Trying to determine if rise due to fundamentals.
Quote:
OTTAWA -- After fruitlessly urging OPEC to boost production to ease red-hot oil prices, the International Energy Agency is now convening a closed-door session with market experts to determine whether supply and demand fundamentals are actually responsible for record crude prices.
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
joewp wrote:
I was watching NBC news tonight, and they had a piece on the current economic conditions. Some film clips of foreclosed houses for sale, high gas pump prices and a chart of the Dow made me think I was watching "The End of Suburbia".
I feel like I'm in that movie a lot lately.
It's really getting bad, isn't it. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Far be it from me to be Mr. Sunshine but there are a few noteworthies. People are starting to wake up for real and understand how important the issue is. There is a conference in Michigan in June, Aaron Wisner is putting together. You see energy and even peak oil talked about more and more. I really doubt we can avoid a hard fall from this, but when people start to wake up and work together alot is possible, we could mitigate things quite a bit. We need a comprehensive plan for maximizing our use of alternatives while there is still time. Yes, it is going to cost money, yes it is going to cut into fossil fuels profits for a while. But hey if we get serious and we can reduce our demand 10% in five years that eases price pressure and cracks open the door for more advances. We have to take it seriously though. The rich power brokers have to understand that milking the cow only works as long as the cow remains well fed and healthy. I guess I am still hoping that some type of awakening will happen. Just a little peep of reason and hope in the cacophony of willful ignorance and denial. _________________ I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1945 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:27 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Gandalf_the_White wrote:
Far be it from me to be Mr. Sunshine but there are a few noteworthies. People are starting to wake up for real and understand how important the issue is. There is a conference in Michigan in June, Aaron Wisner is putting together. You see energy and even peak oil talked about more and more. I really doubt we can avoid a hard fall from this, but when people start to wake up and work together alot is possible, we could mitigate things quite a bit. We need a comprehensive plan for maximizing our use of alternatives while there is still time. Yes, it is going to cost money, yes it is going to cut into fossil fuels profits for a while. But hey if we get serious and we can reduce our demand 10% in five years that eases price pressure and cracks open the door for more advances. We have to take it seriously though. The rich power brokers have to understand that milking the cow only works as long as the cow remains well fed and healthy. I guess I am still hoping that some type of awakening will happen. Just a little peep of reason and hope in the cacophony of willful ignorance and denial.
We've got to get these addicts off the synthetic stuff like derivatives and SIV's before we can even get onto the real world concerns like resource management. You reckon we have a cat's whisker of a chance? _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 11:30 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Cat whisker of a chance? No we don't have one. That chance died the day Henry Ford rolled out his first T-Model.
I don't get why we sit here (even though I am a new member) and read this data and talk about this issue. WHy not spend time with your familys while you still can. One day sooner than we all think the end will come. The end of everything and to say that it's not, is not being realistic by any means. Some of us will have the misfortunes of wacthing our children die before our eyes.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 6:48 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
On the one hand, I agree with Gandalf that, if we really woke up and started acting immediately as the situation demands, we could reduce our use of oil and other fossil fuels dramatically just by ride sharing, cutting back on frivolous uses that we have come to see as necessities...
Somewhat longer term and while continuing a primary focus on conservation and contraction (powerdown), we could really step up development of viable alternative sources (NOT biofuels, except in very specific uses), mass transit, more compact communities where people can walk or bike to most destinations...
Cars need to be mostly a thing of the past for many reasons, and the few that remain should be appropriately sized for their function: a few tiny, light, electric "glorified golf-carts" that don' go above 35mph for getting around town, like the Zenn.
Relocalization of most needs, especially food, eating much lower on the food chain, and for the rare meal that includes meat, only grass fed, and a rapid return to mostly non-fossil fuel based fertilizers and pesticides, or better yet, organic...
Lots of home-grown food and entertainment...
Many of these would enhance our lives, bringing communities closer together, and lengthening and strengthening our lives (health improved notably during WWII when meat and dairy were relatively scarce and people had to walk more places.)
This kind of emergency redirection of national priorities--with great reduction in domestic consumption and great increas in needed production--has happened before, for example for WWII. Britain reduced its domestic use of oil by 95% near the beginning of the war, and the US went from having the 8th largest military in the world (behind Argentina!) with few ships, planes, tanks...to the first.
But we no longer treat even war as a reason to readjust our priorities. I really doubt we will do so now.
Just try asking even your most enlightened friends or extended family members if they would consider cutting back on planned plane trips to help conserve fuel and cut back on greenhouse gas emissions. I can guarantee that most and probably all will treat you as a loonatic, a pariah, or worse.
And so many people are so cynical (for good reason) about our political leadership, I don't see big majorities willing to go along with such a plan, even if we had any leaders with intact spinal cords. The "leaders" all remember what happened to poor Carter's ratings after his Cartigan Speech.
"If you see some way to go, I understand" from "Waiting for Everyman" by Jackson Brown
"I have squandered my resistance..." Simon & Garfunkel
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Here are some press links on the Oil Movements report, although they don't say much more:
Quote:
Despite OPEC's stance, oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, would fall 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to March 29, partly reflecting a seasonal decline in demand, said Roy Mason, an analyst at British-based consultancy Oil Movements who tracks future flows.
London, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) The export operations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decrease 100,000 barrels daily in the four weeks of March 2008, Oil Movements informed on Thursday.
Oil Movements, a respected weekly forecaster of the oil market, said this reflects contraction of the demand due to weather change and excludes OPEC recently incorporated members like Angola and Ecuador.
According to OPEC analyst Roy Mason, maritime export operations of crude oil by the other OPEC members will go down to 24.31 million daily barrels in March.
In the four weeks concluded on March 1st, 24.41 million daily barrels were shipped, but a fall like this has no implications for OPEC policy, Mason said.
Joined: Feb 19, 2007 Posts: 94 Location: British Virgins
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Instead of the falling Supply inferred by all your threads, EIA has reported this week that February Production was up 460 kb/d over the previous month. Similary, IEA has just announced that Feb was up 185 kb/d over Jan.
It is not all coming from non-opec nations. Platts has found that OPEC production was up 80 kb/d in February.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Instead of the falling Supply inferred by all your threads, EIA has reported this week that February Production was up 460 kb/d over the previous month. Similary, IEA has just announced that Feb was up 185 kb/d over Jan.
It is not all coming from non-opec nations. Platts has found that OPEC production was up 80 kb/d in February.
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Which one is right, which one is wrong. Who knows. But when the crash comes, we'll know. Besides folks look on the bright side of things. No more work!
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4455 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:35 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
Greenoil-
I've been home watching more 6 month old for a few months now, while my wife has worked. It sucks. Its boring not doing anything to make a living and stressful. I want to go back to work ASAP. Once the unemployment really hits, there is going to be all kinds of problems just from boredom. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5914 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports Fall 500,000 BPD from Feb
LastViking wrote:
One has to wonder whether the March transit reports will prove as useless as those that you posted for February.
Instead of the falling Supply inferred by all your threads, EIA has reported this week that February Production was up 460 kb/d over the previous month. Similary, IEA has just announced that Feb was up 185 kb/d over Jan.
It is not all coming from non-opec nations. Platts has found that OPEC production was up 80 kb/d in February.
If you are going to criticize me, at least don't say I said things I never did. This is the second time in two weeks you misrepresented what I said.
For example I never posted a report from Oil Movements that said OPEC production would drop in February:
This is what I said on February 28:
Quote:
The oil tanker tracker firm, Oil Movements, says OPEC oil exports will significantly fall in March from February (February being a seasonal high).
Anyway, I already posted the news that February OPEC production was thought to be up at the top of thread, which apparently you didn't bother to read. Please note that is a survey of what people think, and not reports from those countries. OPEC itself sometimes uses Oil Movements and Petrologistics figures.
This week both Oil Movements and Petrologistics have nothing to say, so there's nothing new to report.
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