How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Nov 03, 2007 Posts: 195 Location: cascadia
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
I think Revi is right in that places that were developed before the car (walkable communities) will be much less affected than areas that depend crucially on the car such as suburban areas.
I don't think it is the loss of luxury items that is going to drive the problems in the US, it's the fact that many people are stuck with houses in areas where a car is required in order to live. Sure, they'll minimize the use of the car to maybe only getting back and forth to work and getting groceries. But how can this be compared to a European town where people walk to work, walk to the grocery store, and food is brought in from local regions? Or am I being romantic about life in old areas of Europe?
My understanding of the history of the great depression was that at the time, upwards of 95% of the US population had relatives with farms, or had access to farming areas and that this went a long way towards reducing starvation and related diseases.
Now, however, less than 5% of the population have access to farms, and so virtually the entire US population is dependent on an interrupted food supply chain. Cutting off the food for several weeks would create absolute panic, with few viable options for most.
Joined: Feb 16, 2007 Posts: 31 Location: Coventry, England
Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:55 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Pixie wrote:
Countries like India or Thailand, that are "developing" but still live pretty close to the edge, I believe will experience the worst hardship. The strongest economies in the world are China, the US and Europe. When oil becomes scarce, we in the strong economies will pay the higher pricesand continue burning the oil, and there will be less left over for countries like India and Thailand and Honduras and Ghana, and they will lose their fertilizer, pesticides, medicines and transportation. Once they do, all those 7-child families are going to starve to death on their ruined farms, while those of us in the strong economies watch on TV. In the past, we would have sent them our excess grain stocks and processed cheese spread, but in the future, we won't have any to give, so we will just watch.
This illustrates the problem with these kinds of discussions; you have to make assumptions about all sorts out places about which you know nothing. Thailand is a huge exporter of rice and the idea that it’s dependent on the largesse of America to keep starvation at bay through emergency shipments of processed cheese is ridiculous. 7 child families? I don’t think so - it is has a very low population growth. Nor does it make any sense to lump it in with India or Honduras, unless your criteria for similarity is the fact that it’s not America, it’s got a few poor brown people in it and you’ve actually heard of it.
I lived in Thailand for four years and will be returning for good next year. Aside from the monstrous Bangkok, the population is overwhelmingly rural and agricultural and I think that – for the reasons mentioned above – it will be relatively well set for life post-peak. What’s more, although at first glance the shopping malls of Bangkok seem as pernicious as those of the west, there exists a far greater resilience amongst the population than seems to exist in Europe and North America and there is also a far greater depth of knowledge about things that really matter – how to grow crops, how to repair broken machinery, really, how to get by – and probably most importantly, in the villages there is a very strong, very deep sense of community. It’s far from being an idyll but I’d rather be there than almost anywhere in the west.
Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:26 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Good points Gerontion. We should all think twice about making half-baked assumptions about places that we hardly know much about. Thank you. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
I think we'll do better than many places in Norway, with the biggest problem being the massive parts that are not inhabitable, and the lack of farmland. Power is provided by hydro plants, and we happen to have a undersized rail network (electrified) that could get the most vital transportation done.
When it comes to other countries, i think that almost all nations in the world will face total change in most aspects of society. Poor countries will probably be hit first, followed by the middle strata, industrialized countries with little native oil production and the ones that will take the least of an hit will be those that have a pretty large native prodution. F.ex the US is the third largest producer of oil in the world, and this production could serve as a life saver in the coming time of crisis. Of course th US is about as inefficient as they come.
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
MD wrote:
davep wrote:
Given that the US has the furthest to fall (in terms of oil consumption) and that their suburban infrastructure is so unsustainable, I guess that they will probably crash the hardest.
The US population is also the most removed from labor intensive lifestyle and has been immersed in feel good thirty minute TV fixes for the past fifty years.
Large segments of our population lack the strength or maturity to cope with crisis.
I'm don't believe we could muster a WW11 type resolve again, as a nation.
We've become pitiful.
Exactly. The thing about the USSR was, their system was so ineffecient, people had been gardening and participating in the black market since their revolution. And yet Dmitry Orlov describes one hell of a hard crash for them. The US's is going to be much harder.
Even our hippies hardly grow their own stuff and the Amish have gone into home-handicrafts, woodworking, that kind of stuff more than farming lately.
we need a crash program of "40 acres and a mule" type farming.
Joined: Oct 01, 2007 Posts: 484 Location: Rural farm
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:15 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
culicomorpha wrote:
I think Revi is right in that places that were developed before the car (walkable communities) will be much less affected than areas that depend crucially on the car such as suburban areas.
I don't think it is the loss of luxury items that is going to drive the problems in the US, it's the fact that many people are stuck with houses in areas where a car is required in order to live. Sure, they'll minimize the use of the car to maybe only getting back and forth to work and getting groceries. But how can this be compared to a European town where people walk to work, walk to the grocery store, and food is brought in from local regions? Or am I being romantic about life in old areas of Europe?
My understanding of the history of the great depression was that at the time, upwards of 95% of the US population had relatives with farms, or had access to farming areas and that this went a long way towards reducing starvation and related diseases.
Now, however, less than 5% of the population have access to farms, and so virtually the entire US population is dependent on an interrupted food supply chain. Cutting off the food for several weeks would create absolute panic, with few viable options for most.
Great post
explains things well.
When thihngs get tight I believe the last thing the people in charge will worry about is the population... Therefore you will have to find your own food. Try that today without grocery stores, it is good practice. _________________ ___________________________
Everything is going to happen more or less simultaneously.
Your relatives,their broken down car, and their credit card debt are coming to live with you in 2008
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:59 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Q: Who will crash the hardest?
A: Whatever place that has a large % of people who think they're automatically "entitled" to something.
The most successful nation to transition will NOT necessarily be someplace that has nice walkable cities or lots of farmland but instead a place where people can rationally come to terms that the "good old days" are over and can NONVIOLENTLY transition.
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:36 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
cube wrote:
Q: Who will crash the hardest?
A: Whatever place that has a large % of people who think they're automatically "entitled" to something.
The most successful nation to transition will NOT necessarily be someplace that has nice walkable cities or lots of farmland but instead a place where people can rationally come to terms that the "good old days" are over and can NONVIOLENTLY transition.
Na, it will probably be the country without grocery stores. They're the root of the problem! ; - ) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
I think we're already seeing the crash here in Maine. People can't pay for their heating oil now. A lot of people live on the edge here anyway, but the price of oil makes it so much worse. We know at least 3 people who are selling their small in-town homes because they can't afford to heat their house with oil. I don't know where they will find cheaper digs, but they are on the edge now and need to sell. Their houses will be bought by people who can't afford to keep a big house 10 miles outside of town. They are moving back into walkable neighborhoods now, and buying houses that they wouldn't have considered living in a few years ago. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2640 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
Starvid wrote:
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Now that Bear Stearns have failed I'd just like to point out that I said the investment banks were going to hell last year. Sure, I didn't pick the right banks, but truly, I just picked two on random. I meant investment banks in general. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Who will crash the hardest?
I agree with Revi. It seems that many 'third world' countries don't use much energy now so they won't be affected as much. But, high energy usage countries will likely see the most changes.
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