Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 338 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
Ebyss wrote:
If the Gulf Stream shuts down (and all signs point to yes)
Er.. all signs point to no, actually.
The 'Gulf Stream' shutdown scare was just alarmism and confusion in the press, a misunderstanding of and misapplication of the Younger Dryas (possibly due to a huge glacial morraine dam burst, possibly a cometary impact http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas_impact_event ) event to the present day.
ps
If you like partying, lots of noise and fireworks consider Spain. Also the housing market is at the beginning of a crash. Rent now, buy cheap in 2 years time.
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
skyemoor wrote:
The Bryden et al study shows some indication of slowing, and has been accepted as a valid finding;
Quote:
(---)
“We concluded that there was some evidence of a small decrease but not as big as we reported in the Nature paper last year,” Professor Bryden observed.
“But we have had a decrease… in the order of 10% of the overturning circulation in the past 25 years.”
I've read, on the RealClimate site I think, that 10% would fit into the error margin of this study. But assuming, for the sake of the argument, that this was a continuous linear trend, we'd have approximately:
20% slowdown by 2030
30% slowdown by 2055
40% slowdown by 2080
50% slowdown by 2105
Two years ago I heard a Finnish climate scientist, commenting the original Bryden study in a radio interview, say that the Gulf stream should slow down by about half to be able to affect global warming in Europe, so no cause for immediate alarm here, unless he was way off in his field of expertise.
Assuming, pessimistically, that the guy was way off in his field of expertise, we could imagine (very simplifiedly and probably wrongfully) that a decrease in the Gulf stream's strength correlates more or less directly to a similar decrease in its warming effect on Europe. The average estimate of the warming effect would be 8.5 centigrades, out of a commonly quoted range of 6-11 C. (Some climate scientists, stressing the role of intercontinental winds, would find even 6 C exaggerated.) Even then, we'd "only" have a cooling of 1.7 C by 2030, 2.6 C by 2055 and so on. This would just about nullify a commonly estimated global warming of 5 C by 2100 (= 1 C per two decades), keeping Europe more or less in the present condition.
However, many climatologists say that an increase of just 2 C in global temperatures would cause a runaway climate change (huge amounts of methane in the oceans and permafrost soil suddenly evaporating ) which would end up warming the planet much more radically than conventional linear estimates predict. Hence, whatever happens, I don't think we'll end up freezing over here. _________________ "A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola
Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
hugh-wright wrote:
...
I'm English. I live in England. This is true of my ancestors for as far back as anyone can show.
The idea of running away just because there appears to be some aggro on the horizon seems silly imo: when has it ever been otherwise?
...
How do you think America got populated?
There's a joke that states: "An American's patriotism stops at his wallet." The best selling car in America is a Toyota (what I drive) and I have already pulled ALL my money out of wall street or any American company. Actually my greatest dream would be to make my fortune by "shorting" the US stock market!
Maybe I'll go to France afterwards. I heard a rumor the women there do NOT get fat and there's always a bakery with fresh bread within walking distance!
I'll get married to a French woman:
and decorate my home with a "French country" style...paid with Canadian dollars:
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 524 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 11:38 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
Quote:
Maybe I'll go to France afterwards. I heard a rumor the women there do NOT get fat and there's always a bakery with fresh bread within walking distance!
Small towns in France are sweet, and you're right about bakeries _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1172 Location: Central NC
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
My wife is French, has French citizenship. Her parents live in a small town in France surrounded by wheat fields and cows. Yes, it is pretty darn sweet.
She is committed to moving back, and I have to ask myself if that would be such a bad thing. Especially after watching "Sicko" this past weekend, and experiencing first hand the Canadian health care system many years ago.
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
Nicholai wrote:
Voi Vittu Saatan Perkele!
Stay in an area where you are apart of the majority, simple as that.
Watch your language... that sounds much more vulgar than English swear words.
But I basically agree with your statement. Except if your area is likely to get hit by famine, drought or some other calamity, in which case you'd probably prefer facing possible xenophobia and the trouble of settling into another culture. _________________ "A devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desire... the best dictatorship would be one where the government prevents any economical growth."
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
-Pentti Linkola
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:45 am Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
Fredrik wrote:
But I basically agree with your statement. Except if your area is likely to get hit by famine, drought or some other calamity, in which case you'd probably prefer facing possible xenophobia and the trouble of settling into another culture.
Most European countries are big enough that you should be able to pick a place within your country that is reasonably safe, if you think where you live isn't safe enough. The smaller countries are often familiar with the culture of their neighbours.
What I wouldn't recommend, in any case, is moving somewhere that you don't speak the language fluently, except in extreme scenarios. (For example, if things went INCREDIBLY wrong with global warming, I have a friend in Finland. I don't speak a word of Finnish, but it's always good having a last-ditch alternative.) _________________ What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
If you consider energy supplies and there security, France is by far the best option with the most chance of making it through with a technological civilisation intact.
Nuclear energy will keep the lights on, and their expertise in this field will provide solid export potential to pay for expensive oil and so on.
Germany is very dependent on doubtful Russian gas exports.
France also uses a lot of this gas, but could convert to electricity provided by it's nuclear plants.
Renewables are also starting to play a big part in France, and they have vigorous programs to develop them.
For instance they are installing 50,000 air heat pumps a year, which means that you could heat a house with electricity using a lot less of it and far more cheaply.
No other country in Europe is as favourably placed for energy supply and food production as France.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3765 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
DaveMart wrote:
If you consider energy supplies and there security, France is by far the best option with the most chance of making it through with a technological civilisation intact.
Yeah, but you'd be living under sharia pretty soon.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5918 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
DaveMart wrote:
If you consider energy supplies and there security, France is by far the best option with the most chance of making it through with a technological civilisation intact.
Yes...only to once again be a tempting target for the invading Germanic hordes.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5918 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:31 pm Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
I'd go with Norway as the best place in Europe.
Norway has fewer people, a harsh climate to keep the riff-raff out, 100 billion dollars in the national oil trust fund, and at least a few more decades of self-sufficiency when it comes to oil.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3765 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
Plantagenet wrote:
I'd go with Norway as the best place in Europe.
Norway has fewer people, a harsh climate to keep the riff-raff out, 100 billion dollars in the national oil trust fund, and at least a few more decades of self-sufficiency when it comes to oil.
Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:10 am Post subject: Re: Best place to be/emigrate to within Europe
I'm from northern Norway. I'll decided to stick here. Large areas are sparcely populated so transportation could be a major problem. We also have failed to build enough railways yet. It is some talk of a high speed railway development but that is long into the future anyway. We would also need more normal speed railways throughout the country.
Ag production is a little to low, it is however large enough to feed the population if we ate the grain and vegetables directly instead of feeding them to animals to produce meat. We have very large fisheries in Norwegian teritorial waters, something like 500kg per person a year. To get that fish without oil would be a problem, but we would probably be able to catch a large part of that fish with a fraction of todays oil consumtion if needed.
99% of our electric production is from hydro. The last percentage is from one coal fired power plant in Svalbard and som wind. One gas fired power plant was completed last year, but after the test run it hasnt produced a single kWh yet due to high gas prices and low electricity prices. A totally wasted project and money!
Most of our building heating is already by electricity. We also have a substantial amount of energy intensive industries, like aluminium and other metalurgical industries, powered by our hydro electricity. We could easily reduce our electric consumtion considerably by installing more heat pumps, turn off lights, turn down our ridiculous large ventilation systems in offices and other public buildings, build better insulated and smaller houses and a number of other tings. Thereby we would actually be able to export a substantial amount of nearly free hydro power and get a good revenue. In addition we have a very large potential for new wind power and quite a bit of new hydro also.
I see this wast amounts of nearly free renewable hydro and wind power as the single most important asset of our nation in a post peak world. We have enough hydro to power the whole of our society and in addition enough to power any eventually electric vehicle and electric rails.
The current oil and gas production is roughly 12 times larger than our domestic consumtion. It is howewer declining rapidly with oil declining roughly 7% a year.. But it will take many years still before the production falls below our current consumtion. By then our consumtion is hopefully considerably reduced.
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) which would end up warming the planet much more radically than conventional linear estimates predict. Hence, whatever happens, I don't think we'll end up freezing over here.
