Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress

dohboi · Intermediate Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 704

Thanks for that term. Try googling "feedback loop housing" and you get a number of interesting articles analyzing the current meltdown.

From a rather distant, mathematical perspective, we are seeing an interesting set of feedback loops (the self-re-enforcing kind ironically called "positive") on a number of levels. You nicely point out some of those kicking in in the financial markets. PO depletion will doubtless see some feedback loops as things get going--export land use, hoarding, destruction of fields from careless management...to name just a few.

Then the larger level, ultimately more important to life on earth, are the feed back loops kicking in with global warming, most dramatically recently in the Arctic.

In all these case, sudden, unexpected events seem to come out of no where--whether the collapse of BearsStearns or the collapse of the Arctic Ice Cap. These non-linear feedbacks make things very uncertain and hard to predict. The unknown unknowns expand greatly, and not in a very comforting way.

patience · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 801

Here's a link to Ticker Forum discussion of Andrew Evans-Pritchard's view, saying that he believes in the free market, but now has to back a bailout as the least bad answer.

Better a Bailout than 1930's Revisited

What does he base this on? Who knows what happens either way? Yes, I'm familiar with the 1930's history, but I don't know anything about what hasn't happened yet, and I suspect A E-P doesn't either.

The "unknown unknown's" are out there, so how does one think about this?
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Local fix-it guy..

Falconoffury · Expert Joined: May 25, 2004 Posts: 1359

Hyperinflationary crashes can easily be worse than deflationary crashes. 1923 Germany, 1993 Ukraine, and 2002 Argentina teach us that. The easiest solution to a hyperinflationary crash is a replacement currency. Germany's hyperinflationary problems were fixed inside a year with a replacement currency, which is what I believe to be the plan for the USA. The international bankers are trying to reengineer 1923-1924 Germany. We'll have a year or two of hyperinflationary chaos, then the Fed will step in to save the day with the Amero. It will be another major step toward the NWO. I'm still waiting for somebody to give me a convincing argument that I'm wrong.
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"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"George W. Bush loves poor people. He keeps making more of them." -unkn

IslandCrow

Thornburg Mortage need to raise $1bn

Will it make it? And can its bankers afford the loss?

dorlomin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 05, 2007 Posts: 642

This Is London

Armageddon

patience · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 801

Falconoffury,
I'll assume you're right, since I don't have a clue. An old German I met here in Indiana during the 1970's inflation thought we were about to see Weimar again, right before Volcker did his thing. He had a dairy farm, paid for, and what else he needed. Not real worried about it. I WORRY, not having seen that.

Because, the strategies to cope with various scenarios are always different, and often opposites.

Not too long to wait for results, it seems, if Thornburg, Citi, Credit Suisse, or such go down, and the FED runs out of ways to prop 'em up. Then, it's deflationary crash, or print, right?
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Local fix-it guy..

Gerben

patience · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 801

Armageddon,
Could you expand a bit for a newbie on how this works to benefit TPTB? I have some ideas about how screwed us little people are, and expect them to try everything from confiscating PM's, to wage/price controls, etc.

I don't see a safe place, do you? Okay, I"M freaked. Really freaked.
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Local fix-it guy..

Armageddon

RonMN

Dow is down 260...the rally has fizzled.

I think the market is asking old Ben "what have you done for us LATELY" ?

Lately being in the last several minutes Smile

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Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.

firestarter · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 887

I believe IRX closed at an all time low. There is some nasty shit going down in the dark corridors of high finance (counterparty unwinding?) The meltdown continues; is even accelerating.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

emersonbiggins

Contract law is on its way out, and it's clear the big players don't have to play by the same rulebook as the rest of us.

We had a good run. We won't leave behind stone aqueducts or travertine palaces inspiring awe from our descendants, but they will recognize us by our blown-out tires and windswept plastic bags just the same.
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"The people have spoken, the bastards." Mark Twain

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
H.L. Mencken