Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Arm, for God's sake: Your source is "Sean Screenplays".
Why should we believe one word of all that? How can you assign any credibility to this? _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Arm, for God's sake: Your source is "Sean Screenplays".
Why should we believe one word of all that? How can you assign any credibility to this?
Whoever wrote it has a great understanding on the FED. He is by far not the only source of this common info. If you don't like that, try this one. Same stuff. Very common knowledge if you did deep enough.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 2751 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Fom his link:
I find most people do not want TRUTH, they would prefer to feel comfortable. Most people do not want to learn any truth they fear may breach their comfort zone. Truth also tends to compromise their plans and preconceptions but if they ignore it, it may go away. And for the sake of pride, people don't like to admit to themselves that they have been deceived.
Human beings naturally hide from unpleasant realities which is why some women undergo cosmetic surgery as they get older, while women of all ages paint on the makeup to mask reality. People prefer fantasy and what feels good. This applies to those who refuse to investigate this particular world view I am expounding.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:40 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
RonMN wrote:
Dow is down 260...the rally has fizzled.
I think the market is asking old Ben "what have you done for us LATELY" ?
Lately being in the last several minutes
Dow closed on its lows down 293. Very bad. Less than 36 hours after the 75 point cut and massive bailouts the rally has ended. I think we will see that catabolic collapse by the end of the week. Next step is plan 'B' aka Martial Law.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:15 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
RonMN wrote:
If that's the case Novus...I wonder what gold will do by friday.
I'm guessing back to $1020...anyones guess at this point.
Absent a Bear Stearns type anxiety attack, it will assume a quieter march upward, or downward. The shorts all pile in if there is a hint of a spike, either way.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:42 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Dennis Gartman, who has been extremely bullish on gold, sees it bottoming out at roughly $850. Today's $60 haircut kicked in a lot of sell orders, mine included. After we consolidate at $850, then I suspect it's to the moon ($1500 for starters).
Tomorrow is quadruple witching. We could easily be down another 200 pre market. It's going to be a long weekend in more ways than one.
Today's BIG story was with Merrill. They sued one of their CDS insurers alleging they are in default. This has the potential to domino out of control among couterparty interests. Nobody trusts each other out there. The Fed, in letting everyone cover up their toxic crap, has failed miserably. More carnage to come....soon. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 776 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:42 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Gerben wrote:
Falconoffury wrote:
The easiest solution to a hyperinflationary crash is a replacement currency.
I don't think a replacement currency changes anything unless monetary policy itself is changed. A new currency doesn't fix anything, it just gives a clear signal that things are going to be different from now on. You will have to deserve it before people trust that message though.
These are both good points. The easiest solution is not always the best, though. The fairest way would be to take our medicine now and let the corrupt structures at the top fail without bailouts. The global economy would halt, and there would be bank runs and bank holidays. But the little guy at the bottom of the heap would be buffered somewhat, and his wages and savings would be protected. Hyperinflation will cause the same collapse, but first it will extract the lifeblood of J6P and throw everyone into chaos before there is a reset. I've read and reread the stories about Weimar Germany with a sense of dread, sensing our future. Weimar Germany seemed far worse than the depression, because of the uncontrolled chaos and inability to live one's life on the land during hyperinflation. People were forced into hyper-consumption and hyperproduction, which is about the last thing we need now!
And Gerben's point is a good one. I imagine TPTB would love to maintain the status quo, but that won't happen with peak oil. Unfortunately, the clear signal that things will be different is already being sent with Halliburton camps, changes in martial laws, and so on. Unfortunately, along with the Amero will come the NWO. Don't look to me, Falcon, to refute your point. Unfortunately it makes eminent sense.
I guess there was a British bank trying to go TU today? Tomorrow is quadruple witching, which I don't really understand. Bad things are less likely to happen on triple/quadruple witching day, because TPTB ensure a good close? Or do I have that wrong; I'm no trader? Anyone? _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5200 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
firestarter wrote:
Dennis Gartman, who has been extremely bullish on gold, sees it bottoming out at roughly $850. Today's $60 haircut kicked in a lot of sell orders, mine included. After we consolidate at $850, then I suspect it's to the moon ($1500 for starters).
Tomorrow is quadruple witching. We could easily be down another 200 pre market. It's going to be a long weekend in more ways than one.
Today's BIG story was with Merrill. They sued one of their CDS insurers alleging they are in default. This has the potential to domino out of control among couterparty interests. Nobody trusts each other out there. The Fed, in letting everyone cover up their toxic crap, has failed miserably. More carnage to come....soon.
Just when the Fed thought thay had safely smothered a chain reaction derivative meltdown at BS, another one pops up somewhere else.
Listening on the radio to financial news today, it's apparent that Fed analysts and even some Fed members don't get the fact that the whole financial system is in grave danger of melting down. They characterized the $30 billion given by the Fed to support BS as a loan, and not the desperate and probably illegal use of Federal Reserve money to prevent a public bankruptcy of BS.
Maybe Novus will be right. Just how many fingers can the Fed use at the same time to plug up all the leaks in the credit meltdown?
Jim Rogers has more to say about the Fed in this Bloomberg video, which appears to be recorded early this morning my time.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:28 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Iaato said:
Quote:
The global economy would halt, and there would be bank runs and bank holidays. But the little guy at the bottom of the heap would be buffered somewhat, and his wages and savings would be protected.
I’m a little skeptical of that outcome occurring. Recent banking practices and globalization have produced a system that is so complex, so complicated and so entwined that if it collapses it is doubtful that it would ever get unraveled. The result of $700 trillion in derivatives collapsing would result in something that looked like a ball of kitty yarn the size of the planet. It would take years to sort out, in the meantime JP6 and company would starve to death. There is a significant possibility that if this mess goes down it could be end of civilization as we know it.
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
They characterized the $30 billion given by the Fed to support BS as a loan, and not the desperate and probably illegal use of Federal Reserve money to prevent a public bankruptcy of BS.
Quote:
Mick Phoenix: Credit markets have not seized up due to a lack of capital per se, they seized up due to a lack of confidence in the ability of collateral to keep its worth and the rising risk that any Insurance used might not pay out. The “buck” didn’t stop here, it stopped everywhere.
A fiat monetary system, built on the use of credit as a driver for economic growth, is utterly reliant on confidence. If action is taken that undermines that confidence then the system stops working.
This is not a new phenomena, the evidence is already on display. The rise in commodities, i.e “stuff” is not a function of inflation. It is a rise in the lack of confidence of fiat money. When the dollar, the current world trading benchmark, is debased you place your capital into assets that have a tangible worth. They cannot be eroded or re-valued by the actions of a Central Bank, they are worth something to someone. The dollar does not have the same worth. It functions only because of the confidence placed in the assets that underpin it.
Mike is saying that to restore integrity to the US financial system it would be necessary for banks and lenders to withdrawn loans totally over $5T. The leverage being used by everyone, including the FED is INSANE! It is hard to image that this can come out well! It is getting hard to image that this can come out in any way short of a disaster!
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Falconoffury wrote:
Quote:
I'm still waiting for somebody to give me a convincing argument that I'm wrong.
There seems to be a great human need to believe that someone or something is in control: the PTB, the King, the Pope, Satan. In reality there is no one in control here! This is a system that is running amuck; one that has gone rampant. A self feeding monstrosity that is consuming the world, and us with it. If you think the PTB and their little schemes for global domination are frightening, you have not yet met Chaos.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 776 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:04 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
shortonoil wrote:
I’m a little skeptical of that outcome occurring. Recent banking practices and globalization have produced a system that is so complex, so complicated and so entwined that if it collapses it is doubtful that it would ever get unraveled. The result of $700 trillion in derivatives collapsing would result in something that looked like a ball of kitty yarn the size of the planet. It would take years to sort out, in the meantime JP6 and company would starve to death. There is a significant possibility that if this mess goes down it could be end of civilization as we know it.
That would probably be the record on a ball of string, yes. No, I'm just wishfully thinking. When was the last time we chose to take our medicine and deal with our issues?
Quote:
Mick Phoenix: This is not a new phenomena, the evidence is already on display. The rise in commodities, i.e “stuff” is not a function of inflation. It is a rise in the lack of confidence of fiat money. When the dollar, the current world trading benchmark, is debased you place your capital into assets that have a tangible worth. They cannot be eroded or re-valued by the actions of a Central Bank, they are worth something to someone. The dollar does not have the same worth. It functions only because of the confidence placed in the assets that underpin it.
Phoenix has it wrong; as we have discussed, the rise in commodities is a function of inflation. Less energy circulating + more money circulating = inflation. He's implying that the inflation of oil is a head game.... _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6245 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
shortonoil wrote:
There seems to be a great human need to believe that someone or something is in control: the PTB, the King, the Pope, Satan. In reality there is no one in control here! This is a system that is running amuck; one that has gone rampant. A self feeding monstrosity that is consuming the world, and us with it. If you think the PTB and their little schemes for global domination are frightening, you have not yet met Chaos.
One of the most astute comments yet on this mess.
Nobody's in charge, folks. Some of us are kidding themselves that this is all being directed from above in order to bring about some sort of desired end.
Bullshit. We're seeing the unplanned, unforeseen results of avaricious greed on the part of a vast number of people. Nobody has a handle on what's going to happen because nobody has anything close to an accurate idea of the true scope and severity of the situation.
We're all stumbling through a minefield in the dark. We can step on another one at any moment. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress
Iatto, How is more money actually circulating, right now? It needs a delivery system. Unless the banks and financials can somehow get back on a solid footing, and resume their role of funnelling money into the economy by lending, it stops. What or who is going to assume this role?
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